EF1 tornado, Sowers, Texas, March 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and
  a few spin-up tornadoes are expected overnight through Tuesday
  morning, with the highest severe threat along and north of I-20.

- Windy conditions are expected through Tuesday along with an
  elevated to critical threat for wildfires.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025/
/Through Wednesday/

A dynamic upper trough (with an enclosed low) will be the primary
weather feature of note as it works its way east through the
Plains over the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms have already
developed across western Oklahoma along a dryline with the arrival
of synoptic scale ascent, and convection will develop southward
through the Big Country over the next few hours as a Pacific front
overtakes the dryline. Storms will spread east through North and
Central Texas overnight through Tuesday morning along the eastward
advancing front, with the greatest coverage likely being along
and north of the I-20 corridor where the stronger lift will be.

The presence of a strong capping inversion at 850mb may initially
keep storms elevated in nature, but a strengthening low level jet
and the arrival of the surface front should work to erode the
cap. 1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE and strong shear within all
layers will allow for the development of a few severe storms with
damaging winds the primary threat. A near-parallel 0-3 km shear
vector (with regard to the orientation of the front/developing
storms) will grow storms quickly upscale into a linear complex,
but the lack of a line-normal component may work against the
development of tornadoes. That being said, a few spin-up tornadoes
will still be possible given the high levels of 0-3km helicity.
Locally heavy rain will also be possible, but a fast storm motion
should preclude a significant flood threat.

Activity will enter the west counties now through 2 AM, cross the
I-35 corridor 4 to 8 AM, exiting our east-most counties 10AM to
noon. A narrowing pressure gradient and the expectation of strong
west winds has warranted a Wind Advisory for the entire region
for Tuesday, when gusts up to 50 MPH will be possible. In
addition, a Red Flag Warning is in place for the southern Central
Texas counties where a lack of rainfall will combine with the warm
and windy weather to create critical fire weather conditions.
Winds will slowly abate and fire danger will decrease Tuesday
night, followed by seasonably cool, dry and pleasant weather on
Wednesday.

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&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

With an upper-level ridge and surface high overhead on Thursday,
temperatures will quickly moderate to well above normal with highs
reaching the mid 70s to low 80s by the end of the week. Another
strong upper-level trough/low will exit the Southern Rockies late
this week sending the next cold front through the region Friday
into Saturday. There remains considerable uncertainty in the
potential for precipitation accompanying this front, with guidance
wrestling with the track of the low and the quality of pre-frontal
moisture return. Have lowered PoPs below 30% in the absence of a
consensus. The tightened pressure gradient between the incoming
surface low and the departing surface high will again result in
breezy south winds across the region Thursday afternoon. Given
that moisture recovery will be slow in the wake of the early week
front, elevated fire weather conditions are likely to persist each
afternoon as low afternoon relative humidity persists, especially
west of the I-35 corridor. The cool down behind the front will
drop temperatures to near or below normal this weekend before
rebounding back above normal early next week.

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&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025/
/06Z TAFs/

A line of thunderstorms will affect the DFW Metroplex in the 09Z
to 13Z time frame (10Z to 14Z at KACT) Tuesday morning associated
with a Pacific front. Strong west winds behind the front will
produce crosswind concerns at DFW, primarily in the afternoon
when west winds will be strongest. Blowing dust may produce some
visibility reductions in the afternoon, but will hold off adding
it in the TAFs for now due to a lack of certainty. Winds will veer
to the northwest around 05/00Z and remain gusty Tuesday night.

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&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  43  61  40  67 /  80   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  45  63  39  68 /  60   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  40  56  34  61 / 100   5   0   0   0
Denton              68  39  60  35  65 /  70   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  40  59  35  65 /  90   0   0   0   0
Dallas              70  43  61  40  66 /  80   0   0   0   0
Terrell             69  41  59  36  65 /  90   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  44  61  39  67 /  90   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  44  66  38  70 /  60   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  40  63  38  70 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 5 AM CST early this morning for TXZ091-092-
100-101-115-116-129.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening for TXZ142-156>158-174.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

TXZ100-101-040930-
Young TX-Jack TX-
246 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Young and Jack
Counties through 330 AM CST...

At 245 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Graham, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Graham and Graham around 250 AM CST.
  Bryson around 300 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Jermyn, Lost Creek
Reservoir, Cundiff, Antelope, Newcastle, Jean, Loving, Postoak, and
South Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CST for north central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9871 3340 9842 3347 9842 3347 9798
      3344 9798 3343 9792 3334 9792 3301 9838
      3301 9843 3296 9844 3296 9870 3302 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 220DEG 55KT 3303 9865

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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