EF1 tornado, Lydia to New Boston, Texas, March 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
522 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

Tornado Watch 18 has been issued until 11 AM CST this morning for
portions of Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and East
Texas. This is generally north and west of a line from Rusk Texas
to Texarkana Arkansas to Nashville Arkansas. A squall line has
develop and has moved just west of the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma
and North & Central Texas. This line will continue to push
eastward this morning into our forecast area just after daybreak,
with additional isolated convection possible ahead of this line.
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including locally
heavy rainfall. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

At this hour, a lee-side surface low remains across Eastern
Colorado, with a trailing Pacific origin cold front extending
across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Ahead of this system, a
dryline extends across the western sections of Oklahoma and Texas.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed along that
dryline and is quickly shifting eastward. In our area, the
increased low-level southerly jet in response to the lee-side low
has resulted in strong gusty southerly winds and a Wind Advisory.
It has also resulted in the development of a warm front, which
has pushed northward into our East Texas zones. Some warm air
advection showers have developed in the vicinity of the warm
front. Eventually the lee-side low will start to kick out into
the Central Plains and the trailing Pacific cold front will catch
up with the dry-line and convection near daybreak. At the same
time, the warm front will continue to lift north and eastward
across the region, along with the associated advection showers.
In wake of the warm front, dew points will rise into the low to
mid 60s which will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere for today's
advertised severe weather event. Models seem to be in good
agreement that the current line of strong to severe thunderstorms
will hold together as it moves into our forecast area. With an
unstable environment expected to be in place, along with deep
layer sheer and steep lapse rates, all modes of severe weather
will be possible with the line as it moves across the region. This
includes locally heavy rainfall as well. There remains the
concern that discrete cells will develop just ahead of the squall
line as it approaches the region. Given the expected
thermodynamics, this could yield strong tornadoes across the
region. The front and squall line is expected to push out of the
region this afternoon.

In wake of the front, the current Wind Advisory will remain in
effect through 9 PM and will likely be extended across portions
of the area into Wednesday. As the aforementioned lee-side low
slowly moves out of the Plains into the Midwest, a strong
pressure gradient will form across the area resulting in continued
gusty conditions. Winds will become sustained from the southwest
between 20 to to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph,
especially across East Texas and remaining zones north of the
Interstate 20 corridor. Current obs and satellite confirm blowing
dust across West Texas this morning behind the convection. The
NASA GMAO Dust model has this dust reaching our area this
afternoon into the early evening hours, so decided to add hazy
conditions to the forecast during this period.

A much stronger cold front will move across the area tonight,
bringing gusty northwest winds and cooler conditions into the
region. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s north to mid
40s south of Interstate 20. These cooler, drier, and breezy
conditions will remain across the region on Wednesday, with high
temps struggling to reach 60 degrees, despite sunny skies. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

Not much has changed in thinking for the long-term period. High pressure
will settle over the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
With clear skies and calm winds, overnight lows will fall into the
30s areawide, with near freezing temps possible in locations
north of Interstate 20. Dry conditions will continue through the
end of the work week, but southerly winds will return as the
surface high moves east of the region, resulting in a gradual
warming trend. By the start of next weekend, a closed upper level
trough will move across the Four Corners Region. Flow ahead of
this trough will become southwesterly over the region. Rain
chances will return just after midnight Saturday morning as
disturbances move along the flow, then increase in coverage during
the day as the upper trough and associated cold front move into
the region. Dry and cooler conditions will return Sunday into
early next week, as high pressure and upper-level ridging settle
over the region in wake of the trough. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

For the 04/12Z TAFs, strong to severe thunderstorms will progress
from west to east across area airspace this morning and early
afternoon, bringing torrential rains and potentially damaging
wind gusts. The most likely windows of impacts to terminals are
reflected in TEMPO groups with this package. By mid to late
afternoon, impacts will be coming to an end for ArkLaTex airspace.
GIGs will improve dramatically from MVFR and IFR to VFR with the
passage of these storms. South winds will become southwesterly
then westerly through the day today at speeds of 10 to 20 kts with
gusts of up to 30 kts possible, with locally higher values in the
vicinity of stronger storms.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Spotter activation will likely be needed beginning around daybreak
Tuesday morning through mid-afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  45  59  37 / 100   0   0   0
MLU  73  46  59  36 / 100   0   0   0
DEQ  69  38  55  30 / 100  10   0   0
TXK  72  42  57  35 / 100  10   0   0
ELD  70  42  58  32 / 100   0   0   0
TYR  71  43  58  38 / 100   0   0   0
GGG  73  43  59  35 / 100   0   0   0
LFK  74  45  62  38 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...26

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
722 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Mount Vernon        33.22N 95.23W
03/04/2025                   Franklin           TX   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
740 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 W Bullard             32.15N 95.40W
03/04/2025                   Smith              TX   Trained Spotter

            Storm spotter report of trees down near 344
            and 346 (Teaselville, TX).

&&

AEC