EF1 tornado, Arnett, Oklahoma, May 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
202 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

 - Severe weather is expected Today and Monday, with significant
   tornadoes possible.

 - Shower/storm chances return end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Severe weather is possible across our forecast area through the
evening hours. The main upper wave/trough of this system will remain
to our west over the Colorado Rockies. Meanwhile down in the lower
levels are two surface boundaries: an advancing dryline across the
Southern High Plains and a warm front lifting from northern Oklahoma
into Kansas. All of our forecast area is within the warm and
moist/muggy sector of these surface boundaries with lower 70s
dewpoints creeping well into northern Oklahoma while steepening mid-
level lapse rates will result in up to strong instability during
diurnal heating hours.  The deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
organized supercell development while an strong veering low-level
jet increasing after sundown could maintain storm organization and
the tornado potential through the evening hours.

Convection may start to initiate off the dryline late this afternoon
as it approaches western Oklahoma.  Although several HRRR runs keep
the most of the storm cells tracking east-northeast across northern
Oklahoma, other CAMS solutions develop convection more widespread
across western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. Should any
of these storms track into central Oklahoma this evening into
slightly less unstable air, they could remain severe and organized
especially with the low-level jet firing up.  In addition to the
potential of surface-based dryline convection, there could be
additional elevated convection across our southern CWA through
tonight as the main wave ejects a few shortwaves downstream through
the mid-levels. However, the severe risk would decrease after
midnight into the early Monday morning hours.

Overall storm POPs through this evening are 30-50% but should any
develop much of the ingredients will be in place to become severe
and capable of producing supercells with all severe hazards
possible: large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornados.
Stratus across northwest Oklahoma where dryline convection may
initiate is expected to gradually erode this afternoon for heating
to enhance instability and surface mixing but should it not could be
an inhibitor.   Although the Central Plains of Kansas will have the
overall highest risk from this system, some of that Moderate risk
may spill into far northern Oklahoma.  Both our northern and western
CWA will have the highest severe and tornado risks through this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

A severe risk again across much of our CWA for Monday until this
system starts to exit to the east Monday night as the cold front
pushes through.  Not expecting the dryline to diurnally retreat
Sunday night but remain stretched across western Oklahoma into
western north Texas on Monday and perhaps punch closer into central
Oklahoma during the afternoon.  As a result, the severe risk will be
highest across the eastern half of our CWA where the moist and
strong unstable air will be in place with less severe risk across
the western half of our CWA behind the dryline.  This will be
dependent on where the dryline ends up during the afternoon.
Convection may again initiate off the dryline Monday afternoon with
all the ingredients still there for supercells producing all hazards
in areas along and east of the dryline into the evening hours.  The
upper troughs axis and cold front starts advancing during the
evening and overnight with POPs entirely out of our area by early
Tuesday morning.  The upper trough exits Tuesday with a drier air
mass coming down off the Central Plains.  We'll see our first full
day of Sun on Tuesday and climatically normal temperatures with
highs in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Models shows drier air moving into the region behind the fronts
which will lead to a dry forecast Wednesday and Thursday. The cooler
temperatures will also continue the middle part of the week with
highs remaining in the 70s/80s. Models show low rain chances
returning late Thursday/Friday and could continue into next weekend.
Temperatures are also expected to warm back into the 80s and 90s
towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

MVFR stratus appears fairly persistent, but may see some lifting
and/or clearing this afternoon at places. Severe storms will be
possible across the forecast area this afternoon and evening,
with the highest chances across northern Oklahoma and near the Red
River (lower chances through central Oklahoma). Stratus looks to
redevelop briefly across parts of eastern / central Oklahoma
tomorrow morning. Southerly winds will remain gusty through most
of the TAF period.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  84  58  81 /  40  30  30   0
Hobart OK         65  89  56  82 /  10  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  90  60  83 /  30  30  10   0
Gage OK           55  88  50  82 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     66  83  55  79 /  40  40  50   0
Durant OK         70  83  64  81 /  40  70  40   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Hail             1 E Arnett              36.14N 99.76W
05/18/2025  E3.50 Inch       Ellis              OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Baseball++ (3.50 in.).

&&

AZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Hail             6 W Arnett              36.14N 99.88W
05/18/2025  M3.91 Inch       Ellis              OK   Broadcast Media

&&

AZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
551 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     Hail             2 E Rosston             36.81N 99.89W
05/18/2025  E2.75 Inch       Harper             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Baseball (2.75 in.).

&&

AZ