EF0 tornado, Liberty, Kentucky, November 18, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
120 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

In the very short term, departing thunderstorms and gusty gradient
winds will be the primary concern early this evening.
Showers/thunderstorms will exit the SE part of the FA by sunset as
the sruface cold front moves east into central KY. Gradient winds
will gradually decrease this evening as the surface low in the
vicinity of Lake Erie races northeast tonight. As such, will
maintain the current Wind Advisory strategy, allowing for a 00Z
expiration over the west half of the FA and a 03Z expiration across
the east half of the FA - the approximate times advisory criteria
values are no longer met.

Strong cold air advection behind the surface front will plummet
temps to freezing or below tonight. A cold NW flow aloft will set up
over the area in the wake of the departing 500mb trough. Despite
full sunshine Sunday temps will only rise into the 40s with max
temps north of Highway 13 in southern IL to around OWB only reaching
the lower 40s. Temperatures will rebound a bit on Monday as return
flow sets up west of the surface high moving on to the east of our
area and upper pattern trending to a more westerly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

While both the Euro and GFS 12Z deterministic runs both still
feature the dry cold fropa for the FA Tuesday pm/evening, the GFS
is much more robust as it stacks and closes Low pressure aloft
over the Tennessee valley by midday Wednesday. As a result, its
heights are some 100 meters lower at H5 than the Euro, and
presumably leads to colder output temps. This nuance aside, there
are little other differences in the solution for the long term.
Surface high pressure anchors the forecast thereafter,
prevailing/dominant throughout the Ms/Oh/Tn river valleys,
drifting slowly eastward with time toward the Thanksgiving Holiday
weekend.

The net result...a dry forecast that starts out seasonally mild
in the prefrontal airmass Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s,
and the cold fropa Tue night brings the shot of cold air, with
lows from the mid 20s north to around 30 south. Wednesday looks to
be the coldest blast of air, with highs struggling into the upper
30s and lower 40s, and Wed night lows solidly in the mid 20s
Fa-wide. Thanksgiving day will moderate thru the 40s for
highs/30s for lows...and as high pressure shifts eastward...return
flow southerlies will commence a warming period that will rebound
temps on a move back closer to seasonal norms as we finish out
the week/and the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Showers are possible behind the line of storms late this afternoon,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB. Gradients wind gusts AOA 30 knots will
gradually subside this evening. Otherwise MVFR Cigs will dominate
this afternoon with temporarly restricted visibilities mainly as
line of storm passes. The winds should diminish from 00z-06z and
continue from the NW. Skies will clear tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075-080-081-084-
     085-088-089-092-093.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ076>078-082-083-
     086-087-090-091-094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>004.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ005>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-191100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
222 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms, including the chance of strong to severe storms,
will remain possible late this afternoon and early this evening,
mainly for southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. Locally
damaging wind gusts with storms are possible, but strong winds
behind the front are also possible over southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect
for part of the Area until 5 pm, and A Wind Advisory remains in
effect for all of the area into the evening hours. Refer to the
Watch and Advisory products for details.

In addition, Locally heavy rain may temporarily reduce
visibility, or cause localized ponding of water on roadways, as
the storms make passage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay their severe weather and wind
reports as quickly as possible.

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