Tornadoes · United States · Kansas · 2015

EF2 tornado, Selden to Traer, Kansas, May 9, 2015

Name: EF2 tornado, Selden to Traer, Kansas, May 9, 2015
Start: 2015-05-10T02:50:00.000Z
End: 2015-05-10T03:28:00.000Z
Location: Selden to Traer, Kansas

From Selden to Traer, this EF2 tornado ran 18.8 miles across Sheridan and Decatur counties on May 9, 2015, touching down at 9:50 PM CDT and reaching 150 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $75,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

EF065 to 85 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mph
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mphthis tornado
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating: EF2
Date: May 9, 2015
Touchdown: 9:50 PM CDT (02:50 UTC)
Lifted: 10:28 PM CDT (03:28 UTC)
On the ground: 38 minutes
Path length: 18.8 miles (30.2 km)
Path width: 150 yards (137 m)
Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $75,000
Counties: Sheridan and Decatur counties
Touchdown point: 39.436, -100.615
Lift-off point: 39.705, -100.653
Record number: 1505092050-01

What the Weather Service recorded

Several long-track supercell thunderstorms developed during the evening hours and moved north. Seven tornadoes were reported over four hours, with some producing EF1-EF2 damage.

Chaser reported a large tornado on the ground moving north from Sheridan into Decatur county. Damage occurred at a farmstead with a large tree damaged, minor roof damage and an antenna blown over near Selden. Another resident reported a barn was destroyed.

Chaser reported utility poles were snapped just north of Highway 36 on Road 314.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 03:26 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at May 9, 6:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 6:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA (EXCEPT WESTERN FRINGE OF YUMA
COUNTY) REMAINS UNDER A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
DESPITE SOME CLEARING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY HAS DELAYED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

LATEST RUC/18Z NAM/HRRR SUGGESTING NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY TO EJECT
FROM PARENT UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
23Z LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

AFTER MIDNIGHT CENTER OF WOUND UP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
YUMA COUNTY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE AREA. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED IN THE 09Z-13Z OR 14Z TIMEFRAME
FROM NEAR WAUNETA TO STRATTON TO KIT CARSON COUNTY. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. ELSEWHERE WINDS
INCREASE FOR MANY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 50 IN NORTON AND HILL CITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S WEST TO AROUND 60 HILL CITY.

REGARDING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST NOT
QUITE HALF OF YUMA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WOULD SEE FROST CONDITIONS...THIS IS ALSO
THE AREA I AM ANTICIPATING SNOW. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLITES. IF A GREATER AREA OF YUMA COUNTY GETS INTO THE LOW 30S
A FROST HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST ASPECTS
THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THESE COMPETING FACTORS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND THUS FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S RUN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND IN THE LOW
30S ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME UPPER 20S
OBSERVED OVER EAST COLORADO WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST. THIS TIME...LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ADDITION
TO CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THESE ARE PRIME
CONDITIONS FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST PREDICTS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR MCCOOK NEBRASKA AND NORTON KANSAS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
ONCE AGAIN AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO
ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
INITIALLY...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...EJECTING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS BUT CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
MOISTURE RETURN AND THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO RESUME AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY RETURN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLAINS. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY IF FORECAST ELEMENTS COME
TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 3:00 PM CDT, 6 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
200 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
WAUNETA TO STRATTON TO KIT CARSON COLORADO. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE FROST CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
CONDITIONS.

FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS
LINE.

FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO HILL CITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 9:01 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
801 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TORNADO          1 NW GRINNELL           39.14N 100.64W
05/09/2015                   SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 1 MILE
            NORTHWEST OF GRINNELL.

&&

T. LYNCH

Local storm report, May 9, 9:06 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
806 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     TORNADO          1 S GRINNELL            39.11N 100.63W
05/09/2015                   GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 1 MILE
            SOUTH OF GRINNELL.

0755 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 N EDSON              39.52N 101.54W
05/09/2015  E60.00 MPH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 60MPH.

&&

T. LYNCH

Local storm report, May 9, 9:13 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
813 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TORNADO          2 ENE ANGELUS           39.20N 100.66W
05/09/2015                   SHERIDAN           KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTHEAST OF
            OAKLEY.

&&

T. LYNCH

Local storm report, May 9, 9:21 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
821 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
05/09/2015  E0.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL REPORTED IN GOODLAND, 0.75 INCH.

&&

T. LYNCH

Local storm report, May 9, 9:23 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
823 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     TORNADO          1 N ANGELUS             39.20N 100.69W
05/09/2015                   SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS A LARGE WEDGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND 1
            MILE NORTH OF ANGELUS.

&&

T. LYNCH

Local storm report, May 9, 9:35 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
835 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TORNADO          5 SE MENLO              39.31N 100.65W
05/09/2015                   SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS A LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND
            WITH AN INTERMITTENT SMALL TORNADO AS WELL.

&&

T. LYNCH

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), 00:00Z

2.8 hours before the tornado, 173 km from the path. May 10, 2015.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104479 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 63 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 514 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 731 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0
0-3 km lapse rate: 3.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), 12:00Z

9.2 hours after it, 173 km from the path. May 10, 2015.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104592 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 493 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 208 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 247 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1
0-3 km lapse rate: 4.3 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Oberlin (OIN), 30 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)	Temp (°F)	Dew point (°F)	Wind	Gust (kt)	Pressure (mb)	Weather
00:00 UTC

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 02:50 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the track Every 2015 tornado in Kansas Every tornado in Kansas since 1950 Warnings in force in Kansas now The forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 9, 2015

28 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Date	Time	Rating	Where	Path (mi)	Width (yd)	Deaths	Injuries	Damage
May 9	4:32 PM CDT	EF3	Eastland, TX	3.8	1,400	1	2	$300,000
May 9	3:40 PM MDT	EF0	Lincoln, CO	0.0	50
May 9	3:41 PM MDT	EF0	El Paso, CO	3.3	100
May 9	4:55 PM CDT	EF0	Cooke, TX	0.7	40
May 9	5:15 PM CDT	EF0	Eastland, TX	0.1	20			$90,000
May 9	4:27 PM MDT	EF0	Kiowa, CO	1.1	50
May 9	4:30 PM MDT	EF0	Elbert, CO	0.1	50
May 9	5:30 PM CDT	EF0	Love, OK	0.3	30
May 9	4:40 PM MDT	EF0	Elbert, CO	0.1	50
May 9	5:50 PM CDT	EF0	Love, OK	0.3	30
May 9	4:50 PM MDT	EF0	Kiowa, CO	11.1	150			$3,000
May 9	5:57 PM CDT	EF0	Wichita, TX	3.3	50
May 9	6:09 PM CDT	EF0	Cotton, OK	1.0	100
May 9	5:20 PM MDT	EF0	Cheyenne, CO	2.1	10
May 9	6:24 PM CDT	EF0	Marshall, OK	3.0	200
May 9	5:35 PM MDT	EF0	Cheyenne, CO	1.0	25
May 9	6:58 PM CDT	EF0	Erath, TX	0.3	80
May 9	7:25 PM CDT	EF1	Bryan, OK	5.3	200
May 9	7:28 PM CDT	EF0	Trego, KS	4.0	100
May 9	7:55 PM CDT	EF0	Graham, KS	2.8	50
May 9	8:00 PM CDT	EF0	Gove, KS	5.7	100
May 9	8:24 PM CDT	EF0	Roger Mills, OK	2.0	100
May 9	8:25 PM CDT	EF0	Harlan, NE	0.3	15
May 9	8:36 PM CDT	EF0	Harlan, NE	0.0	15
May 9	8:38 PM CDT	EF1	Gove, KS	6.1	50			$50,000
May 9	9:12 PM CDT	EF0	Sheridan, KS	13.9	150
May 9	10:43 PM CDT	EF1	Decatur, KS	11.7	50			$6,000
May 9	11:20 PM CDT	EF0	Red Willow, NE	4.2	25

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.