EF2 tornado, Densmore to Almena, Kansas, June 20, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1236 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

.UPDATE...
753 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 522. THIS WATCH RUNS FROM 7 AM
UNTIL 2 PM MDT.

JTL
&&

.DISCUSSION...
241 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

0345Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WITH RUC PV ANALYSIS
INDICATING DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE PRESSURES HIGHER THAN H45 AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC..FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CWA...WITH WESTERN HALF GRADUALLY ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT.

THUNDERSTORM THREATS...PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AND STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE
PERIOD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THINK THERE WILL BE TWO
MAIN AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...ONE ACROSS
THE WEST ALONG BACK HALF OF THE SYSTEM WHERE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...DIV Q FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PV ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE SECOND WILL BE ALONG SFC FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC LOW.
THIS SECOND AREA MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO GET GOING AS VERY WARM
AIR MASS OBSERVED AT DDC WILL SHIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE
MORNING AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CINH TO LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT AS H5 LOW SHIFTS EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT COOL
EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG SFC FRONT AS WELL. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD
OF FORCING ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM...PWS OVER 1.25 AND MIXING RATIOS
IN EXCESS OF 10 G/KG ADVECTING AROUND SYSTEM AND FEEDING INTO AREA
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...THINK SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE AND WITH OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAIN HAVING OCCURRED IN
THE NORTHERN CWA...THINK THERE MAY BE A FLOODING THREAT TODAY. WHILE
NEW NAM AND RUC SEEM TO BE SHIFTING THE FOCUS FURTHER EAST...AM
GOING TO STICK WITH MORE WESTERLY SOLUTIONS WHICH HAS STRONG SUPPORT
FROM ENSEMBLE DATA. WHILE HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS A
DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA...WILL LIMIT FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO AREA
WHERE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIP MOST LIKELY...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CWA WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THE NIGHT BEFORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SFC LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN CWA...RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO 40-50KTS IN THE 0-1KM LAYER WITH A AREA OF
60KT AT ABOUT 1KM AGL DURING THE EVENING. GFS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS ALOFT BUT STILL SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE AREA...AM CONSIDERING A HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHT OF
SOME SORT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH...HAVE
CONCERNS THAT WINDS WILL BEGIN BY 20Z ACROSS WESTERN CWA AND WOULD
BE A FIRST PERIOD EVENT WHICH IS OUTSIDE VALID WATCH TIMES. WHILE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT STRONG TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
TODAY...SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY ALL THE LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO SFC LOW POSITION AND RESULTING WIND SPEEDS. WITH FRONT
ALREADY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING POTENTIAL FURTHER LOWERED. CURRENTLY THINK BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR THE WHOLE
AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE GENERAL AGREEMENT OF OPERATIONAL
MODELS IS THAT H5 UPPER LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
BULK OF THE ASCENT STAYING TO THE EAST...HOWEVER AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT A SYSTEM THIS STRONG WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...A CONCERN
THAT ALSO SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS
SUCH...DOES NOT SEEM TO BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER AS H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THREAT BY THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END
ADVISORY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN QUITE STRONG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H7 LOW WHICH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS IN THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANYTHING FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE ALONG WITH
AIR MASS RECOVERING FROM COOLER TEMPS BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
LIKELY BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THINK KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THE WAY TO GO THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SFC
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
20-25C RANGE...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT A STRONG WARM UP GIVEN THE LIGHT
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. THINK THIS MIGHT HOLD TEMPS BACK A
LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE AIR WILL BE FLOWING FROM AREA
BEHIND DEPARTING STRONG TROUGH.

JRM
&&

.AVIATION...
1135 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...BECOMING VFR
WITH A SCATTERED MIDLEVEL DECK THROUGH AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 45 TO 50KTS AT KGLD WITH
30 TO 38KTS AT KMCK. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
06-07Z...BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

PMM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
     MDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-013-014-027>029-041-042.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ090.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ090>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1041 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2011 /1141 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...MAINLY EAST
OF A MCCOOK TO GOVE LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
MAY CREATE A FEW AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     HAIL             8 N PENOKEE             39.47N 99.97W
06/20/2011  E2.50 INCH       GRAHAM             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDOWS ALL GONE ON WEST SIDE OF THE HOUSE. WINDS
            ESTIMATED AT 60MPH.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TORNADO          6 S EDMOND              39.54N 99.82W
06/20/2011                   GRAHAM             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TORNADOES MOVING EAST CROSSING HWY 283 AT THIS TIME.

&&

APIETRYC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
101 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TORNADO          9 N HILL CITY           39.50N 99.85W
06/20/2011                   GRAHAM             KS   STORM CHASER

            LARGE TORNADO NOW BEING REPORT NEAR HWY 283.

&&

APIETRYC

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