EF1 tornado, Folletts to Almont, Iowa, March 15, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

SYNOPSIS...STRONG 130 KT 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST IS CARVING OUT A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN EXTREME UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY...RAPIDLY FALLING TO NEAR 987 MB AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/AND NE
MISSOURI SOME OF WHICH WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS. PLEASE READ THE
FOLLOWING SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR PARTS IOWA/ILLINOIS/AND MISSOURI

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM NE MISSOURI THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ATTENDANT WARM/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/AND NE
MISSOURI.

BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS....MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...0-6 KM
SHEAR NEAR 55 KTS...LOCALIZED AREAS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR OVER 20 KTS AND
0-1 KM SRH OVER 200-250 M2/S2...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S PRODUCING LOW LCLS. 12Z 4KM NAM 0-1 KM EHI
FIELD HIGHLIGHTS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FOR BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITHIN THIS AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.

FORECAST 1-HR UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES FROM VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS
ALSO SHOW HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER SE THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
ROUGHLY FROM FAIRFIELD IOWA TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING
ILLINOIS AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH.

TIMING...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA BETWEEN
3-4 PM CDT THEN QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE ENE...EXITING THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA AROUND 9-10 PM CDT.

TONIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RAIN SHOWERS WILL HANG ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS...GUSTING OVER 40 MPH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BECOMES
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP THROUGH WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN. SEE NEXT
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING HIGH WIND POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA. UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING BUT STARTING A BIT
LATER TONIGHT TOWARD 3-4 AM FOR INITIAL ISALLOBARIC SURGE BEHIND
DEEPENING CYCLONE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30. SOME
GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCEMENT BEHIND DEEPENING CYCLONE IN WI AS WELL.  THEN
EXPECT A RE-SURGE BY MID WED MORNING WITH DIURNAL MIXING SURGE
INTO SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GUST ENHANCEMENT ALONG EDGE OF WRAP-AROUND
STRATOCU AND EMBEDDED RAIN. THUS SUSTAINED 30 TO 40+ MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH LOOK ON TRACK FOR THESE AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE HIGH WIND
EVENT ABOUT A MONTH AGO. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL GO WITH A WIND
ADVISORY...HIGHER END ADVISORY AT THAT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR JUST
SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT AN EXPANSION OF THE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MID CREW ASSESSES ONE LAST RUN AND
WATCHES UPSTREAM TRENDS...OR A TIME BUMP UP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
FCST AREA. FIRE THREAT DISCUSSION BELOW.

THEN LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF WITH SUCH A DRY SUBSIDING SLOT TAKING
OVER THE AREA FOR MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO
THU MORNING. SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. IF ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO THE
EVENING LONG ENOUGH...THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH.

QUICK LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE...COOLER REGIME INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACRS THE AREA FOR A SCTRD COOL BASED
SHOWER CHC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. MAY BE SOME PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WITH THESE WITH SUCH COOL AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

AFTER A PASSING RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX SUNDAY INTO
MON...GATHERING RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER A WEEK FROM NOW FOR NEXT TUE
OR INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VLIFR TO VFR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. VLIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z/16 AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AFT 03Z/16...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR. AFT 12Z/16 VERY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN
THE 00Z TAFS...LLWS OR LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND PLENTY OF
DRIED VEGETATION...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX/GFDI/ CLIMBS
INTO THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY BY WED AFTERNOON ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. NORMALLY WOULD GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING WITH SUCH
HIGH/WIDESPREAD VALUES FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER TOMORROW...BUT THE
SAVING GRACE IS THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DON/T DRY OUT ENOUGH
BELOW 30 PERCENT OR INTO THE 20S FOR MORE OF AN EXPLOSIVE FIRE
THREAT. PLUS THE TERRAIN MAY BE SOAKED BY ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS THESE FACTORS MAKE FOR A LOWER CHC FOR
A FIRE TO START. BUT THE WINDS WILL HAVE SOME DRYING EFFECT...AND
IF A FIRE WAS ABLE TO GET GOING SOMEHOW...THE THREAT WOULD BE
RAPID SPREAD POTENTIAL IN HIGHER DRIED GRASSES/BRUSH. THUS FOR
NOW HAVE INCLUDED THIS FIRE SPREAD THREAT IN THE WIND HEADLINE
PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS THE HWO FOR NOW AND WILL REVISIT ON
WEDNESDAY. ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

FORECAST RAINFALL IS DRIVING RISING RIVER FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOR SOME AREA RIVERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO 1.75
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WHERE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS PASS, HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE AMOUNTS
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. THE LOWER END OF THE
WAPSIPINICON RIVER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE,
PARTICULARLY AT THE DE WITT GAGE. ALSO, WITH HEAVIER RAINS EXPECTED
OVER WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA CONSIDERABLE RISES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE FORECAST AS WELL. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST RAINFALL, THERE IS ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST RIVER STAGE VALUES BEING REACHED, THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL, THE FORECASTS AND ANY NEEDED
PRODUCTS WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CARROLL-JO
     DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     WARREN.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...12
HYDROLOGY...BROOKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-161100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
353 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE REST OF THE AREA
IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS OR LARGER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

VERY STRONG WINDS WILL SURGE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY GUSTING FROM 50 MPH UP TO 60 MPH IN AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM 4 AM CDT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 55 TO 60
MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES WILL NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION ESPECIALLY ON
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS. THESE DANGEROUS WINDS MAY CAUSE
PROPERTY DAMAGE AND KNOCK DOWN TREES OR BRANCHES...RESULTING IN
POWER OUTAGES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES...VERY STRONG
WINDS... AND PLENTIFUL DRIED VEGETATION WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN
A VERY HIGH THREAT OF SPREADING GRASS FIRES ON WEDNESDAY...IF A
FIRE MANAGES TO START.

THURSDAY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH. HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL NEED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION ON NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED ROADS. A HIGH GRASS FIRE DANGER MAY CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.

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