EF2 tornado, Good Hope to Walnut Grove, Illinois, March 15, 2016

1. EF065 to 85 mph

   Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

2. EF186 to 110 mph

   Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

3. EF2111 to 135 mphthis tornado

   Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

4. EF3136 to 165 mph

   Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

5. EF4166 to 200 mph

   Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

6. EF5over 200 mph

   Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

7. Unrated

   The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

Rating

EF2

Date

March 15, 2016

Touchdown

6:26 PM CDT (23:26 UTC)

Lifted

6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)

On the ground

16 minutes

Path length

8.2 miles (13.2 km)

Path width

400 yards (366 m)

Deaths

0

Injuries

0

Property damage

$200,000

County

McDonough County

Touchdown point

40.562, -90.674

Lift-off point

40.630, -90.545

Record number

1603151726-01

13 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DVN and NWS ILX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF2. The highest wind the damage implies is 122 mph.

• Start of tornado. roofing material rolled back <20%
• roof materials removed approx 30%
• Front porch destroyed. Large hardwood trees blow over. Greater than 40% roofing removedd from sw side of home
• Barn in back of house destroyed

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

A strong area of low pressure and associated warm front tracked northeast from Missouri into northern Illinois late in the day. Numerous severe thunderstorms developed over the region, bringing large hail, damaging winds, and several tornadoes to the area. The warm front lifting north was a focus area for tornadic supercells.

An EF-2 tornado with winds estimated at 115 mph touched down north of Good Hope Illinois in McDonough County. It traveled northeast, crossing into Warren County west of Prairie City and eventually into Fulton County. Several homes were severely damaged with most of the damage occurring to farm outbuildings and trees.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

20 minutes of warning. NWS DVN issued a tornado warning for this county at 23:06 UTC, 20 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 00:00 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 20:31 UTC and running to 00:53 UTC.

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:45 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 23:23 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

The live radar over the trackEvery 2016 tornado in IllinoisEvery tornado in Illinois since 1950Warnings in force in Illinois nowThe forecast where you are

10 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.