Tornadoes · United States · Illinois · 2016

EF0 tornado, Deer Grove to Sterling Arpt, Illinois, March 15, 2016

From Deer Grove to Sterling Arpt, this EF0 tornado ran 1.8 miles across Whiteside County on March 15, 2016, touching down at 8:33 PM CDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
March 15, 2016
Touchdown
8:33 PM CDT (01:33 UTC)
Lifted
8:38 PM CDT (01:38 UTC)
On the ground
5 minutes
Path length
1.8 miles (2.8 km)
Path width
50 yards (46 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Whiteside County
Touchdown point
41.664, -89.692
Lift-off point
41.687, -89.679
Record number
1603151933-01

The damage survey

3 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DVN, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF0. The highest wind the damage implies is 80 mph.

  • Part of irrigation rig flipped

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A strong area of low pressure and associated warm front tracked northeast from Missouri into northern Illinois late in the day. Numerous severe thunderstorms developed over the region, bringing large hail, damaging winds, and several tornadoes to the area. The warm front lifting north was a focus area for tornadic supercells.

A tornado uprooted a tree, damaged shingles and siding on two homes, and overturned a short portion of an irrigation rig. The damage was rated EF0 with winds estimated at 80 MPH. The path was about 50 yards wide and roughly 1.5 miles long.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

0 minutes of warning. NWS DVN issued a tornado warning for this county at 01:33 UTC, 0 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 01:49 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 20:31 UTC and running to 02:00 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
20:31 UTC02:00 UTCTornado WatchDVN
23:50 UTC00:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVN
00:31 UTC01:15 UTCTornado WarningDVN
01:33 UTC01:49 UTCTornado WarningDVN
06:00 UTC20:27 UTCHigh Wind WatchDVN
12:00 UTC16:34 UTCHigh Wind WarningDVN
16:34 UTC01:00 UTCWind AdvisoryDVN

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 01:01 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Davenport, (KDVN), 00:00Z

1.6 hours before the tornado, 68 km from the path. March 16, 2016.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2016-03-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 1252 joules per kilogram, CIN -33, lifted condensation level 801 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2016-03-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 330 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 72 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1252 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-33 J/kg
Surface CAPE
617 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
801 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
72 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
330 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
453 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.1
Supercell composite
12.3
0-3 km lapse rate
5.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Davenport, (KDVN), 12:00Z

10.4 hours after it, 68 km from the path. March 16, 2016.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-03-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -99935, lifted condensation level 808 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-03-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -49 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 11 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-99935 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
808 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-119 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
6.4 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 01:32 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
23:30 UTCTORNADO1 Sw Rapids CityRock Island, ILTORNADO SPOTTED SOUTH OF LE CLAIRE
00:29 UTCTORNADO1 Sw Rapids CityRock Island, ILTORNADO SPOTTED SOUTH OF LE CLAIRE
00:36 UTCHAIL 0.751 N CambridgeHenry, IL
01:33 UTCTORNADO5 N Deer GroveWhiteside, ILTRACK INCLUDING A TREE UPROOTED...DAMAGE TO SHINGLES AND SIDING ON TWO HOMES...AND A SHORT PORTION OF AN IRRIGATION RIG OVERTURNED. WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 80 MPH WHICH IS AN EF-0 RATING. PATH IS 50 YARDS WIDE AND TRACK I
01:41 UTCTSTM WND GST 501 N Whiteside County AiWhiteside, IL
01:50 UTCHAIL 1BureauBureau, IL
02:10 UTCHAIL 0.882 S Oakdale Nature PresStephenson, IL
02:12 UTCHAIL 0.88Mount MorrisOgle, ILLASTED FOR ABOUT TWO MINUTES.
02:14 UTCHAIL 0.52 Se AmboyLee, IL
02:22 UTCHAIL 1LaddBureau, ILRELAYED BY LOT.
02:27 UTCHAIL 1.25PeruLa Salle, ILTIME ESTIMATED PER RADAR.
02:36 UTCHAIL 0.881 E Troy GroveLa Salle, ILREPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF I-39 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 52 BY NIU STAFF METEOROLOGIST.
02:45 UTCHEAVY RAIN 0.772 E PoloOgle, ILALSO PEA SIZE HAIL.
02:45 UTCHEAVY RAIN 0.77PoloOgle, ILALSO PEA SIZE HAIL.
03:01 UTCHAIL 0.75DepueBureau, ILPEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2016 tornado in IllinoisEvery tornado in Illinois since 1950Warnings in force in Illinois nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of March 15, 2016

10 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
March 156:26 PM CDTEF2McDonough, IL8.2400$200,000
March 156:42 PM CDTEF1Warren, IL8.3400$215,000
March 157:25 PM CDTEF2Rock Island, IL4.820010$750,000
March 157:33 PM CDTEF0Scott, IA0.050
March 157:34 PM CDTEF0Clinton, IA1.250
March 157:42 PM CDTEF2Peoria, IL7.5440$1.0 million
March 157:44 PM CDTEF1Sangamon, IL3.675$280,000
March 157:49 PM CDTEF1Clinton, IA1.4753$50,000
March 157:57 PM CDTEF1Clinton, IA3.4300
March 158:05 PM CDTEF0Peoria, IL3.7200$260,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.