EF0 tornado, Four Mile Corner to Enarc, Arkansas, May 2, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1247 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs, moderate to heavy rainfall should continue
through central portions of the state through early to mid
afternoon. This rainfall, in addition to low broken to overcast
skies, will result in MVFR and IFR conditions across the forecast
area. Expect conditions to improve slightly this evening, however
restrictions should return late tonight and early Friday due to
low clouds and fog development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 659 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019)
UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

AVIATION...

SHRA/TSRA were ongoing across western and northern terminals this
morning. VFR conditions were seen at KBPK, KPBF and KLLQ,
elsewhere MVFR conditions were observed. Ceilings will gradually
lower through the day becoming MVFR as SHRA expand in coverage and
spread northeastward. Precipitation will come to an end from
southwest to northeast this afternoon into the evening. MVFR
ceilings will prevail overnight with areas of fog developing by
early Friday morning 08/10z. Winds will generally be southerly at
less than 15 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

It was another unsettled evening across much of AR. Radar
indicated two main areas of convection in progress as of 04Z this
morning. The northern end of an MCS was affecting the southwest
half of AR, while another area of convection was ongoing across
northeast AR. Between these systems, a remnant cold pool was
propagating across central AR resulting in elevated scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. All storms across the state
are below severe limits at this time. Across western portions of
AR, radar indicated substantial precipitation fell across this
area overnight, with general 1 to 2 inches over the higher
elevations of the Ouachitas. Additional heavy rain will be
possible today as the system slowly moves east across the state.
Limited instability, from time of day, will help keep storms below
severe limits. Flash flooding will be the main concern given
antecedent conditions. High temperatures to day will range from
the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. Precipitation should come to
an end this afternoon and evening before another complex of
showers and thunderstorms move into the region Friday.

On Friday into Friday night another mesoscale convective system
is expected to develop over Texas before moving into AR. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds
becoming the main concern. Marginally severe hail will be possible
as well. One major factor to consider with this severe potential
would be the development of stratiform precipitation out ahead of
the main convection to help stabilize the atmosphere. Friday and
Friday evening will be monitored closely for any changes to this
severe potential. Confidence remains low in this portion of the
forecast with so many model discrepancies as to timing and
placement of features.

This active weather pattern is a result of persistent troughing
over the western CONUS and strong persistent ridging over the
Western Atlantic. Between these features, southwest upper level
winds continues to bring embedded impulses through the flow which
in part is interacting with a nearly stationary boundary
northwest of AR and partly a result of rich Gulf of Mexico
moisture streaming northward pooling in proximity to the boundary.
These ingredients will come together to produce a long-duration
heavy rain event across the state. As much as one to three inches
of additional rainfall will be possible along the I30/Hwy 67/167
corridor through the short term. Flash flooding still posses the
greatest risk during the short term.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Convection wl be ending from the Sat night as a storm system shifts
further to the E of the FA. Models still show a lull in the
unsettled wx pattern for Sun and much of Mon as sfc high pres passes
acrs the region. Weak ridging in the upper lvls wl also help to keep
dry conds in place.

However, moisture/rain chances wl once again return heading into Tue
and Wed as the upper flow again returns fm the SW. Several upper
impulses wl traverse the Mid-South, also aided by a slow movg CDFNT
fm the NW, to bring additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA to much of AR.
Once again, wl closely monitor heavy rain/severe wx potential
heading into the next work week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Baxter-Boone-
Conway-Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Pike-
Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren-Yell.

&&

Aviation...CROSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
449 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
449 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
through the state this morning into the early afternoon hours.
The potential exists for heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash
flooding. One to two inches of rain is expected today. Organized
severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Unsettled weather will continue Friday and Saturday, as a front
meanders over Arkansas. Good chances for showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Localized flash flooding will be a
concern, but organized severe weather is not expected.

The front will move out of the area later in the weekend. A return
to an unsettled weather pattern will occur by the middle of next
week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

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