Hail in Texas, May 22, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
117 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday evening
  and overnight across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

- Another round of storms is possible Saturday night across
  western portions of the area, though confidence is lower.

- Rainy pattern continues through end of next week with near
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For the first time in several days, the low-level cloud shield is
showing significant breaks. This is letting temperatures moderate
toward normal for this time of year - upper 70s to lower 80s.
Satellite and surface observations show an accelerating cold front
from central Kansas into the northern Texas panhandle. That should
arrive in northwest Oklahoma within the next 2-3 hours and
potentially act as a forcing mechanism for storms late this
afternoon. Instability will reach up to 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
evening with relatively dry mid-levels and about 30 knots of bulk
shear. Severe hail is possible with initial updrafts, followed by a
couple of gusty outflow winds perhaps as high as 70 mph.

This activity should weaken toward late evening, to be replaced by
the primary wave of thunderstorm activity overnight. Those
thunderstorms will develop within a moderately unstable regime of
upslope winds in the central Panhandles. Eastward propagation of
those storms is expected late in the evening when cold pools begin
to "merge and surge" eastward. A risk for damaging winds (and
perhaps severe hail up to an inch or so) will exist particularly
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. However, the lack
of a classic Plains springtime low-level jet will act as a limit on
the overall intensity of thunderstorms/severe hazards.

Despite the meager LLJ, we anticipate that one or a couple of
convective systems will continue to move eastward over the rest of
the night and be near or just east of I-35 by daybreak. This will be
driven by a continued well of 1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE, and small
hail/cloud-to-ground lightning/heavy rain will all be possible.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The MCS(s) will be departing our area as Saturday begins. Behind it,
expect a several-hour window of drier weather with breaks in the low-
level clouds once again developing by late morning. Storm
probabilities during the day will be rather low/scattered with
marginal instability and weak deep-layer flow, but sufficient CAM
signal exists to think that there will be at least a few updrafts
(especially in northwest Oklahoma). Another MCS is possible tomorrow
night across parts of our area (although less certain than the one
tonight).

More uniform northerly flow aloft develops on Sunday, and we have
our first higher-confidence-in-dry-weather period from Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Temperatures will continue to be
right about normal for this time of year.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

In the wake of the upper low over Texas, another trough will dig
into the Pacific Northwest and bring continued southwesterly flow
and several disturbances through the week. Thus, daily shower and
storm chances will continue through most of next week. There is a
low-to-medium chance for greater than 2 inches of rainfall through
the end of next week with the highest chances (40-70%) across
southeast and into central and south central Oklahoma and decreasing
chances (<40%) westward.

Temperatures will float around normal through much of next week in
the 70s to 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Clouds continue to lift and break. Winds remain light with some
variability. A line of storms is expected to form in the
panhandles this evening and make its way eastward overnight. There
is some signal for MVFR ceilings again toward morning, but not
enough to include in the TAFs at this point.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  78  61  81 /  80  40  40  10
Hobart OK         59  80  59  83 /  80  40  40   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  82  61  83 /  80  40  50  10
Gage OK           53  74  53  83 /  70  40  30   0
Ponca City OK     60  77  58  81 /  70  60  40   0
Durant OK         65  81  65  82 /  70  60  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
750 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

TXZ084-087-230115-
Foard TX-Knox TX-
750 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Foard
and western Knox Counties through 815 PM CDT...

At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles east of Grow to 9
miles east of Guthrie to 14 miles northwest of O'Brien. Movement was
east at 20 mph. Warning may be needed with this line as it moves
into portions of Foard and Knox counties over the 20 to 30 minutes.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size to larger hail are
         possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Knox City and Benjamin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 10005 3394 9996 3340 9972 3340 9999
      3383 10000 3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 271DEG 19KT 3382 10024 3362 10016 3346 10008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
816 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

TXZ084-087-230145-
Foard TX-Knox TX-
816 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Foard
and Knox Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 816 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles east of Chalk to 14 miles east of
Guthrie to 8 miles west of O'Brien. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Munday, Knox City, Benjamin, Truscott, Gilliland, and Rhineland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 10005 3404 9980 3340 9955 3340 9999
      3383 10000 3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 260DEG 23KT 3386 10017 3364 10008 3342 9999

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
846 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

TXZ084-087-230215-
Foard TX-Knox TX-
846 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Foard
and Knox Counties through 915 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles east of Chalk to 5 miles northwest of
Truscott to 3 miles northwest of Benjamin to near Knox City. Movement
was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Munday, Knox City, Crowell, Benjamin, Vera, Truscott, Gilliland, and
Rhineland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 10005 3416 9993 3393 9962 3375 9955
      3343 9957 3340 9965 3340 9999 3383 10000
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 236DEG 21KT 3393 10005 3379 9989 3362 9985
3342 9983

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30