What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 11:55 AM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 1252 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
- A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial Day weekend. Beachgoers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double red flags are flying.
- Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries.
- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms will be possible each day. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 11:55 AM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1255 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
- A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial
Day weekend. Beachgoers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf
conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double
red flags are flying.
- Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend.
Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95
degree range. Moderate heat-related impacts are expected,
affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health
systems and industries.
- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms
will be possible each day. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger
storms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Minor changes were made to today's rain chances based on the
latest observational and model trends. An upper shortwave trough
spinning over the Lower MS Valley is forcing semi-organized
convective clusters extending from near Mobile Bay to in between
the I-59 & I-65 corridors late this morning. This activity is
forecast to gradually move eastward over the next several hrs and
approach the western FL Panhandle and Southern AL late in the
afternoon. Some isolated cells may develop out ahead farther east
courtesy of the seabreeze and/or any large-scale lift, as
suggested by the 12Z HRRR.
The best rain chances are along/east of I-65 towards the Flint
River Valley. Environmental conditions are favorable for storms to
produce frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Small hail is also a possibility with the strongest cores. An
isolated severe thunderstorm or two would not be surprising either
given the ongoing radar activity to our west and the 12Z KBMX
sounding. The latter shows a moist and sheared profile amidst
moderate instability in addition to a low-level jet.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Ridging remains off the Atlantic Seaboard through much of next week
while a shortwave tries to move across the Plains into the
Mississippi Valley. High pressure will nose its way into our area
this afternoon, reducing rain chances somewhat today (generally 30-
50% inland, and lower near the coast). Some of the storms could
produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Highs
will range from the mid to upper 80s over the Central Time zone to
the lower 90s farther east. Given the very moist environment, heat
index values will be in the mid 90s to near 100 this afternoon.
Over the holiday weekend, high pressure weakens and moves farther
out over the Atlantic. This opens our area up to more rain chances
as the shortwave inches closer and a few weaker shortwaves rotate
around the western periphery of the ridge. On Saturday, one of these
shortwaves moves across Georgia, which may help increase shear just
a bit, yielding a slightly better chance for some stronger storms
during the afternoon. SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe weather for
Saturday afternoon across parts of southern Georgia, mainly north of
US 84. PWATs increase to 1.7 to 1.9 inches, above the 95th
percentile for this time of year, which will yield the potential for
locally heavy rain in thunderstorms. Best chances of rain remain
across inland areas (60-90%), but coastal locales may get in on the
rain chances this weekend (30-50%) given the high amount of
moisture. Highs will still range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat
index values near the coast will still be near 100.
Next week, the shortwave moves closer over the Mississippi Valley,
which will continue to draw deep moisture into our area. PWATs
remain near the 95th percentile for this time of year. This will
keep our wet pattern rolling along with high daily rain chances and
the threat for some locally heavy rainfall in thunderstorms. The
highest rain totals will likely remain to our north and west across
the northern and central parts of Alabama and Georgia, but if any
southward shifts occur, we could see some of the heavier rainfall in
our northern tier of counties. Temperatures will come down some as a
result of the high rain chances, only in the mid to upper 80s for
highs, though it will still remain humid. Heat index values will
remain in the mid 90s to near 100 outside of storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Thunder will be the main aviation concern this TAF period. Have a
combo of prevailing VCTS with aftn tempo groups at all terminals
to acct for isolated convection off the seabreeze and a larger
storm cluster moving east near the I-65 corridor. Storms gradually
wane after sunset with southerly winds going lgt/calm. Some MVFR
stratus overspreads DHN/ABY late tonight, followed by an early
start to convection at ECP/DHN as soon as 12Z. Intro'd PROB30
groups for thunder everywhere to conclude this period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue for the next
several days with seas around 1-2 feet. Daily chances for showers
and storms continue, especially during the overnight and early
morning hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Southerly transport winds around 10-20 mph will lead to high
dispersions across much of the area except for the I-75 corridor and
the eastern Big Bend. Winds will weaken over the weekend to around
10 mph, which will yield good dispersions each day. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected each afternoon, which may
produce gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day.
Given the deep moisture with PWATs at or above the 95th percentile,
locally heavy rain will be possible in storms. This could lead to
localized flooding concerns, particularly in urban, low-lying, or
poor drainage areas. Most likely rainfall totals over the next 7
days will range from 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the FL counties with
1.5 to 2.5 inches across southeast Alabama and south Georgia. Higher
amounts are possible in localized areas. This rain will also help to
recharge our river systems, which are still quite low. This rain is
extremely beneficial for the area as severe to exceptional drought
continues. For the latest on drought impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 89 73 89 73 / 10 10 50 10
Panama City 85 74 86 74 / 30 30 60 10
Dothan 85 70 84 69 / 40 30 90 30
Albany 88 70 87 69 / 50 40 80 60
Valdosta 90 71 90 70 / 50 20 90 30
Cross City 92 73 93 73 / 10 10 40 20
Apalachicola 84 76 84 76 / 10 20 40 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...YoungIn the hours before
Special weather statement, May 22, 1:11 PM EST, 49 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
211 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ146-147-159-221900-
Brooks GA-Colquitt GA-Cook GA-
211 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COOK...NORTHWESTERN
BROOKS AND SOUTHEASTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 211 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Quitman, moving north at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Adel, Moultrie, Sparks, Pavo, Morven, Berlin, Barwick, Ellenton, Reed
Bingham State Park, Cook Co A/P, Barney, Pineboro, Greggs, Pine
Valley, Spence Airport, Oaklawn, and Hollis.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3105 8346 3103 8347 3098 8347 3082 8349
3083 8374 3104 8374 3120 8373 3120 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 187DEG 14KT 3090 8361
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42-DVDSpecial weather statement, May 22, 1:23 PM EST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
223 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ124-221900-
Terrell GA-
223 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT TERRELL COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...
At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dawson, moving north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Dawson, Sasser, Bronwood, Parrott, Dawson Municipal A/P, Bridges
Crossroad, Oakville, Herod, Chickasawhatchee, Yeomans, and Olivers
Mill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3196 8444 3187 8434 3187 8430 3183 8426
3179 8426 3179 8429 3170 8429 3169 8431
3169 8429 3166 8430 3167 8450 3192 8453
3192 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 182DEG 20KT 3174 8440
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42-DVDSpecial weather statement, May 22, 1:31 PM EST, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
231 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ125-144-145-221915-
Baker GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-
231 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DOUGHERTY...NORTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND NORTHEASTERN BAKER COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 230 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Baconton, or 7 miles south of Putney, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Putney, Albany, Baconton, East Albany, Marine Corps Logistics Base,
Turner City, Flint, Radium Springs, Red Store Crossroads, Lockett
Crossing, South Albany, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Pecan City, Acree,
Lester, Freeman, Williamsburg, and Greenough.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3165 8399 3163 8401 3162 8400 3157 8400
3156 8398 3155 8400 3148 8400 3147 8398
3146 8398 3146 8400 3130 8400 3130 8428
3162 8431 3162 8405 3165 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 182DEG 19KT 3138 8415
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42-DVDSpecial weather statement, May 22, 1:40 PM EST, 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
240 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ126-221930-
Lee GA-
240 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LEE COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 240 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Leesburg, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Albany, Smithville, Chokee, Stocks, Forrester, Palmyra,
Century, Jordan Place, Starksville, Byne Crossroads, Scrutchins,
Armena, Olivers Mill, Neyami, Philema, and Mossy Dell.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3191 8392 3186 8393 3183 8397 3180 8398
3180 8401 3176 8399 3172 8403 3167 8401
3162 8405 3162 8430 3169 8429 3169 8431
3170 8429 3179 8429 3179 8426 3183 8426
3187 8430 3187 8434 3192 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 182DEG 19KT 3172 8418
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42-DVDLocal storm report, May 22, 1:52 PM EST, 8 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM Hail Alapaha 31.39N 83.22W
05/17/2026 E1.00 Inch Berrien GA Public
photo of hail estimated around quarter size.
0400 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Gladys 31.47N 83.24W
05/17/2026 Berrien GA Dept of Highways
Fallen trees on SR 11 Northbound at SR 158.
&&Special weather statement, May 22, 1:54 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ127-129-131-146>148-221930-
Berrien GA-Tift GA-Worth GA-Colquitt GA-Irwin GA-Cook GA-
254 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COOK...SOUTHWESTERN
IRWIN...BERRIEN...NORTHEASTERN COLQUITT...TIFT AND SOUTHEASTERN WORTH
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 253 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Norman Park to near Nashville. Movement was
north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Tifton, Nashville, Adel, Moultrie, Sparks, Enigma, Omega, Norman
Park, Lenox, Ty Ty, Alapaha, Unionville, Phillipsburg, Ellenton,
Eldorado, Scooterville, Gladys, Massee, Glory, and Flat Ford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3148 8311 3147 8314 3146 8315 3144 8314
3140 8314 3139 8312 3112 8320 3121 8376
3159 8371 3158 8367 3157 8366 3157 8365
3158 8365 3150 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 196DEG 23KT 3125 8366 3120 8334
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42-DVDNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1338259, 1338260, 1338261, 1338262, 1338263, 1338264, 1338265, 1338266, 1338267, 1338268, 1338269, 1338270, 1338271, 1338272, 1338273, 1338274, 1338275, 1338276, 1338277, 1338278, 1338279, 1338280, 1338281, 1338282.