What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 2:05 PM EST, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 230 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
- Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Primary concerns are locally heavy downpours, strong to damaging winds, and the potential for a few brief and weak tornadoes.
- Gusty winds expected in portions of the East Tennessee mountains and adjacent foothills tonight.
- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day though the forecast period.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 2:05 PM EST, 3 hours 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
- Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and
evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Primary
concerns are locally heavy downpours, strong to damaging winds,
and the potential for a few brief and weak tornadoes.
- Gusty winds expected in portions of the East Tennessee mountains
and adjacent foothills tonight.
- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day though the
forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
The upper level pattern consists of a longwave trough over western
portions of the CONUS and ridging over the southeast. An impulse is
currently traversing mean flow atop the northern Gulf states and
into the Tennessee Valley. A sfc warm front is also draped through
the eastern TN Valley and wrapping back westward toward Memphis,
where an area of surface low pressure is developing. This pattern
has continued to promote numerous showers and storms across the
region. Convective activity will increase in coverage for our county
warning area as the upper shortwave translates across this
afternoon and evening.
Latest RAP and HRRR soundings depict around 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
as a southwesterly LLJ near 40kts promotes effective shear near 25-
30kts. Overall, this setup is conducive for the potential of a few
strong to severe storms. Winds will be the primary threat, however,
sfc-1km shear between 15 to 20kts and 0-3km CAPE around 150-180J/kg
mean that a few weak and brief tornados are also in the realm of
possibility... especially if any semi-discrete cells can develop.
Isolated instances of flash flooding could also be possible as a few
locations have had enough rainfall in the short-term that 1hr FFG
has fallen to 1.3-1.5 inches, but overall not strong enough of a
threat to warrant any sort of watch. These threats will exist
through about 10pm this evening.
While we may not stay completely dry, the focus during the overnight
period will transition to strong gusty winds in the mountains and
adjacent foothills as the low-level jet swings across the southern
Appalachians. Have decided to hoist a Wind Advisory from Blount
through Unicoi as HREF probabilities of wind gusts GTE to 40mph have
increased to around 50-70%.
Some additional scattered activity is expected as weak impulses
continue to traverse mean flow Saturday, however, shear and
instability profiles will be even less favorable for strong to
severe storms. Ultimately, this pattern will continue for much of
the period as daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast through Friday. Timing and strength of convection is very
uncertain as it will depended on how exactly the small disturbances
evolve with time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Showers and storms will move into the region later this afternoon
through the evening hours with the most significant impacts likely
to be at CHA and TYS where low MVFR is expected. TRI's reductions
will be later into the evening and potentially not as significant
as the other two sites. Overnight, rain coverage will decrease
with MVFR likely to linger at CHA. Another impact will be LLWS due
to winds around 2,000 feet AGL reaching or exceeding 30 kts. This
is most noted at CHA and TYS, so LLWS was introduced. This will
decrease after sunrise with another increase in rain chances.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 64 83 / 80 80 60 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 80 63 83 / 90 80 70 80
Oak Ridge, TN 63 79 61 83 / 90 80 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 80 60 83 / 80 100 60 80
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.
VA...NONE.
&&
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...BWHazardous weather outlook, May 22, 1:59 PM EST, 3 hours 59 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-231900-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
259 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026 /159 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the area today, and
a few storms may become strong to severe. Primary hazards will be
locally heavy downpours and damaging winds. A few brief and weak
tornadoes and small hail cannot be ruled out with any storms that
exhibit rotation.
Gusty winds will be possible in some of the higher elevations and
foothills today through tonight, with gusts to around 40 mph or
higher possible in some wind-prone locations.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Additional rounds of storms are expected on Saturday, a
few of which could again produce strong gusty winds.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Any reports of damage associated with strong to severe weather
this afternoon and evening is greatly appreciated.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 22, 12:50 PM EST, 5 hours 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1250 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
TNZ098-221830-
Marion TN-
1250 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...
At 1249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stevenson, or 10 miles southwest of Bridgeport, moving northeast at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jasper, South Pittsburg, Kimball, Monteagle, Orme, New Hope, and
Fiery Gizzard State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3524 8584 3524 8582 3507 8555 3498 8564
3499 8586 3522 8586 3522 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 210DEG 24KT 3485 8587
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BWSpecial weather statement, May 22, 1:29 PM EST, 4 hours 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
TNZ036-067>069-071-221915-
Anderson TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-Knox TN-NW Blount TN-
229 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LOUDON...
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...SOUTH CENTRAL ANDERSON AND EAST CENTRAL ROANE
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lenoir City, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Lenoir City, Loudon, Farragut, Oliver Springs,
Louisville, Karns, and Tellico Village.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3571 8420 3579 8438 3609 8429 3601 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 205DEG 24KT 3579 8426
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BWSpecial weather statement, May 22, 4:19 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
519 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
TNZ013-036-037-069-222200-
Anderson TN-Union TN-Campbell TN-Knox TN-
519 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN KNOX...EASTERN
ANDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND SOUTHERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM EDT...
At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clinton, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Plainview, Norris, Luttrell, Norris
Dam State Park, Andersonville, Paulette, and Big Ridge State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 8369 3597 8412 3603 8423 3637 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 220DEG 27KT 3606 8410
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
27Special weather statement, May 22, 5:39 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
TNZ014-037-VAZ001-222330-
Claiborne TN-Union TN-Lee VA-
639 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE...NORTH
CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...
At 638 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Pruden, or 11 miles southwest of Middlesboro, moving
northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Harrogate, Cumberland Gap, and Arthur.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3666 8348 3639 8382 3646 8392 3659 8384
3658 8369 3662 8365 3662 8363 3664 8361
3664 8358 3667 8352 3667 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 218DEG 25KT 3647 8383
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
27Local storm report, May 22, 5:47 PM EST, 11 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
647 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 S Rose Hill 36.28N 83.77W
05/22/2026 Union TN Public
Several trees down.
&&
dh