Tornado in Texas, April 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
609 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures today through Saturday, then below
  average Easter Sunday through Tuesday.

- Medium rain chances today mainly Hill Country and I-35 Corridor.

- Widespread rain chances late Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A mid to upper level trough is moving across NM this morning.
Thunderstorms have developed along a dryline north and west of our
CWA. Storms will be ongoing at the start of this period. Some CAMs
show convection moving through part of our area during the morning
hours today. Most of this activity will be over the Hill Country and
I-35 Corridor. The low level flow across the Coastal Plains will be
from the southeast and this moist flow will prevent the dryline from
advancing eastward. This will limit the eastward progression of
convection today. There may be enough lift in the southeasterly flow
to generate isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Friday another dryline will be followed by a Pacific cold
front into the northwestern part of our CWA. Low chances for
convection will spread into the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande Plains Friday morning and then to the Hill Country during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Friday night into Saturday, a stronger mid/upper level trough will
move east into the Plains, sending the cold front through our CWA
Saturday. This will bring widespread chances for convection
spreading from the northwest Friday night across the entire area
Saturday afternoon. A series of upper level impulses will move
through the pattern over TX and bring chances for additional showers
and thunderstorms Saturday night through early Monday. Although
models are showing an extended period of convection, Saturday
afternoon and evening is the time period that will most likely have
activity. There is a chance for some locally heavy rain with storms
Saturday with PW values forecast above 1.5". Tuesday and Wednesday
will be dry as upper ridging builds over the area from the west.

Behind the front Saturday, cooler air will spread across our CWA
resulting in below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Highs
Sunday and Monday will be in 60s and lower 70s. Lows will be in the
upper 40s and 50s. Wednesday will warm back to near normal across
most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Some minor changes have been made to the forecast for the next few
hours, but have kept the higher chances for TSRA limited to AUS,
with lower chances for -SHRA farther south at SAT. We will also
continue with VCSH at SSF as the southern edge of the line of
convection looks to be more broken and isolated in coverage. Cigs
this morning also look to remain generally MVFR along I-35, with
some TEMPO MVFR cigs possible at DRT. Low cloud development will
occur again early Friday morning, with MVFR anticipated beginning
04-06Z along I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  70  87  69 /  70  10  10  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  69  88  69 /  60  10  10  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  68  87  69 /  50  10  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            82  68  84  66 /  70  10  10  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  70  88  69 /  10  10  40  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  68  86  66 /  80  10  10  50
Hondo Muni Airport             87  67  89  67 /  40  20  10  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  68  88  69 /  60  10  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  71  87  70 /  50  10  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  70  88  70 /  50  10  10  40
Stinson Muni Airport           87  70  90  71 /  40  10  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
928 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

TXZ193-194-209-021515-
Bastrop TX-Fayette TX-Lee TX-
928 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Bastrop, south central Lee and northwestern Fayette Counties through
1015 AM CDT...

At 927 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rosanky, or 7 miles southwest of Smithville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Smithville, Rosanky, Upton, Plum, Northrup, Togo, String Prairie,
Kovar, West Point, Winchester, Kirtley, and Buescher State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 9736 3002 9735 3012 9694 2984 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 265DEG 19KT 2994 9725

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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