Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, April 18, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will move through North and Central Texas
  this morning. Scattered storms are expected along and behind the
  front. A few storms could be strong with primarily a hail and
  strong wind threat.

- Much cooler weather is expected through the middle of next week.

- Daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  possible much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A strong cold front is currently moving south through the
Southern Plains, generally draped along an Ardmore-Nocona-Snyder
line as of 2 AM. Near and just behind the surface boundary is a
messy MCS that is expected to continue to develop back towards the
west. The front and its associated storm clusters will advance
south through the morning as its upper level support swings into
the Great Lakes region, reaching our northwestern counties around
1:30-2 AM, the DFW Metroplex/I-20 corridor around 3-4 AM, and
Waco/Central Texas closer to 6-7 AM. Gusty winds and
showers/storms will occur shortly after FROPA, sticking around
through the morning.

While overall coverage and intensity of the storms are expected
to wane as they advance south, the environment will continue to be
supportive of isolated elevated strong to severe storms capable
of hail and strong winds thanks to MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, 7-8
C/km lapse rates, and 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. The threat
for hail and winds this morning is greatest across North Texas and
western portions of Central Texas. Scattered elevated showers and
storms are expected to linger on and off near and south of the
I-20 corridor through this afternoon and evening, generally moving
from SW to NE. Lapse rates between 6.5-7 C/km will continue a
threat for small hail in any of the more robust cores. The
overall severe threat this afternoon in Central Texas remains
marginal, though we cannot rule out a couple instances of 1" hail
during this time. All showers and storms will eventually come to
an end late tonight, leaving behind much cooler post-frontal air.

Tomorrow will be a much cooler, quieter day as morning low
temperatures bottom out in the 40s to around 50 degrees.
Northerly winds will gradually shift out of the east as the post-
frontal surface high slides through the region, and will aid in
keeping afternoon temperatures mainly in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

North and Central Texas will find themselves on the western
periphery of the surface high by Monday, marking the return of
southerly flow. Continued ample Gulf moisture will quickly be
advected northward across Texas as a shortwave disturbance moves
across the Southern Plains. This will allow for scattered showers
and storms mainly across our western counties on Monday,
spreading eastward on Tuesday. Upper level ridging will nudge into
the region, promoting the warm up of temperatures mid-late next
week. Unsettled weather will make a return towards the end of the
week as troughing becomes established over the western CONUS and
shifts east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A cold front is currently moving south into North Texas as of 2
AM, with north wind gusts up to 30 KT expected as well as an MCS
continually developing just behind the surface boundary. Wind
gusts of around 35 KT will be a bit more sporadic and isolated
behind the front. This wind shift is progged to move through D10
between 08-09Z, and ACT closer to 1130-12Z. Expect cigs and vis
to quickly deteriorate as the storms move through, with MVFR cigs
and gusty north winds lingering until late morning/early
afternoon. IFR cigs and vis are also not out of the question, but
probabilities are low enough to just keep an eye out for now.

The highest period of concern for TSRA impacts is generally
between 08-11Z in D10, though rain and thunder will remain
possible through 14Z. Coverage and thunder potential will continue
to lessen in D10 as we go into the afternoon. ACT will have more
spotty showers and storms just behind the front this morning, with
showers continuing into the afternoon. Redevelopment of showers
and storms is likely this afternoon in Central Texas, which will
impact ACT and remain generally south of the D10 sites. All
precipitation will come to an end later this evening, with
northerly winds gradually decreasing in speed the rest of the
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  47  74  52 /  40  10   0   0
Waco                64  45  72  50 /  70  30   0   0
Paris               63  42  72  45 /  40   0   0   0
Denton              64  40  72  46 /  20   0   0   0
McKinney            64  43  72  48 /  40  10   0   0
Dallas              65  48  74  51 /  40  10   0   0
Terrell             63  43  73  48 /  50  10   0   0
Corsicana           65  46  75  50 /  70  30   0   0
Temple              65  47  73  51 /  50  40   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  40  72  45 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
203 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

TXZ091-092-100>102-180745-
Cooke TX-Young TX-Montague TX-Wise TX-Jack TX-
203 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Young, Montague,
northwestern Wise, Jack and Cooke Counties through 245 AM CDT...

At 200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lindsay to 7 miles northeast of Woodson.
Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Gainesville, Graham, Jacksboro, Bryson, Sunset, and Lake Graham
  around 205 AM CDT.
  Alvord, Chico, Fort Richardson State Park, and Lake Bridgeport
  around 210 AM CDT.
  Bridgeport around 220 AM CDT.
  Possum Kingdom Lake around 225 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Lost Creek
Reservoir, Cundiff, Rosston, Bulcher, Newcastle, Park Springs,
Murray, Loving, Capps Corner, and Crafton.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 494 and 503.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 9738 3392 9721 3374 9717 3372 9716
      3373 9709 3385 9709 3384 9703 3394 9695
      3373 9694 3318 9780 3301 9843 3296 9843
      3297 9895 3340 9895 3340 9842 3347 9842
      3347 9798 3389 9798 3385 9785 3399 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 305DEG 29KT 3362 9726 3308 9896

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

TXZ100-101-115-116-180830-
Palo Pinto TX-Stephens TX-Young TX-Jack TX-
240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Young, Jack, Stephens
and northern Palo Pinto Counties through 330 AM CDT...

At 239 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Lake Graham to near
Hubbard Creek Reservoir. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Graham, Breckenridge, Bryson, Crystal Falls, Lake Graham, and
  Hubbard Creek Reservoir around 245 AM CDT.
  Possum Kingdom Lake around 255 AM CDT.
  Possum Kingdom State Park around 300 AM CDT.
  Necessity and Caddo around 305 AM CDT.
  Graford around 315 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Jermyn, Lost Creek
Reservoir, Cundiff, Newcastle, Jean, Murray, Loving, Harpersville,
Joplin, and Eliasville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 9909 3296 9904 3296 9895 3305 9895
      3340 9860 3340 9842 3344 9842 3336 9792
      3312 9792 3280 9828 3251 9868 3252 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0739Z 297DEG 33KT 3325 9851 3281 9907

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Prater