NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 18, 1:57 PM AKST, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 18, 1:57 PM AKST, 4 hours 33 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 PM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue across Northern Alaska
into early next week, as moisture from the Bering Sea continues to
build into the West Coast and Interior with snow and gusty winds
while a cold and very dry airmass builds in out of the north.
These two airmass will meet in the Interior, setting the stage for
widespread snowfall. With afternoon highs above freezing for most
locations in Interior, we could see a rain/snow mix at times
particularly farther south. Any wet/slushy spots will likely
refreeze overnight, leading to potentially icy surfaces. Poor
drainage areas could see localized pooling/ponding of water.
Another system will affect the area by the middle of next week,
with more snow and mixed precipitation possible, especially in
Western Alaska, as temperatures broadly warm.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered light snow showers will continue across the Interior
today, with a front moving in Sunday into Monday bringing in
more moderate, widespread snowfall through early next week.
- Snowfall totals will range from around 1-4" in the valleys and
3-8" in the mountains. Locally higher totals are expected in the
Alaska Range, where around 8-16" of snow is expected for higher
elevations of the Parks and Richardson Highways with locally
higher totals above pass level.
- High temperatures will continue to be above freezing for most,
leading to the potential for a rain/snow mix at times
particularly farther south. Any wet/slushy spots will likely
refreeze overnight, leading to potentially icy surfaces. Poor
drainage areas could see continued pooling/ponding of water.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A front will bring strong winds to most of the West Coast, with
the strongest winds at St. Lawrence Island and through the
Bering Strait, where northeast winds could gust around 50-65
mph. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
- This same front also provides snow beginning this morning in the
Yukon Delta and gradually traversing north and east through
tonight and Sunday.
- Rain will likely mix with the snow in the Lower Yukon and Upper
Kuskokwim Valleys from Mountain Village to McGrath with the best
chances being Sunday afternoon.
- Prior to the rain, snow amounts will be around 4 to 7 inches.
North of the mixing line, snow amounts will range between 5 to
10 inches from Ruby to Kaltag and 3 to 6 inches in the Kobuk
Valley.
- Any rain across the area will change back to light snow and snow
showers Monday afternoon which will linger into Tuesday.
- Winds will also gradually weaken on Monday and Tuesday. Another
system looks to move into the area on Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Generally quiet weather on the North Slope with below normal,
cold temperatures continuing into next week.
- Light snow continues in the Central Brooks Range through this
evening with only light accumulations around 1 to 2 inches
expected.
- Another area of snow arrives on Sunday, particularly late in the
day and gradually traverses north to the coast Sunday night and
Monday.
- This second round of snow will bring another 1 to 3 inches in
the North-Central Brooks Range with around 1 inch on the North
Slope.
&&
.UPDATE...
Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to a mix of Winter Storm
Warnings and Blizzard Warnings with Winter Weather Advisories
issued for the Interior. Special Weather Statements have also been
put in place for areas surrounding areas. Stay tuned for updates
over the coming days as an active weather pattern remains in place.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday Night.
Active, unsettled weather continues through next week across
Northern Alaska. Elongated troughing aloft from over the Arctic
(with minimum 500 mb heights of around 512 dm) extends across the
North Slope and the Seward Peninsula. At the 850 mb level,
temperatures are around −22C at 850 mb over the North Slope and
−15C over the Seward Peninsula. Cold air associated with this area
of troughing along with northerly winds will permit colder
surface high temperatures today in Western Alaska; highs on the
Seward Peninsula/coastal areas are expected to be in the single
digits and teens above zero, with highs in the Western Interior in
the mid to upper 20s from around Galena north. Scattered showers
continue across an area extending from Norton Sound to the Central
Brooks Range and are receiving dynamic support from a shortwave
trough moving northeastward across the Interior. More numerous
showers are occurring across the Alaska Range and will persist
through the next few days. Snow will be heaviest on the southern
side of the Eastern Alaska Range south of Trims Camp; near the
Richardson Highway, some surface melting during the daytime
periods followed by later refreezing could result in slick
road conditions.
The primary weather maker for the next few days will be an
extratropical cyclone over the southern Bering Sea. The minimum
central pressure of the low-pressure center of this system is
estimated to be around 960 mb. While the surface low will be
fairly strong (and vertically-stacked with its corresponding upper
low), it will not directly affect land at this intensity; the
primary impacts will instead occur along the leading warm front
well east of the low, where brisk easterly to northeasterly winds
will blow across the northern Bering Sea and adjacent coastal
areas. In the Bering Strait and through the Chukchi Sea, they will
have a more northerly orientation. The front will move ashore
over the YK Delta by this afternoon/evening and with it, a broad
line of precipitation will begin to affect the area while moving
in a consistent southwest-to-northeast direction. Ridging over
the eastern Aleutians ahead of this system will push eastward,
with meridional flow setting up over southcentral Alaska. By this
afternoon and evening, snow showers in the southern Alaska Range
should dwindle. Tonight into tomorrow, ahead of the upcoming
front, additional showers will develop in the Central/Eastern
Interior and may be convectively driven, with many forming off the
higher terrain. These showers will likely continue through
Saturday evening, and their precipitation type could be diurnally-
driven in the valleys, with rain more likely during the
afternoon/evening hours. Heavy snow on the south side of the
Alaska Range will likewise resume tonight, with upslope flow
supporting high snowfall rates at times. There could still be some
messiness, with potential icy/slick conditions again possible.
The front itself will largely affect the Western and Central
Interior from Sunday through Tuesday. In these areas, liquid-
equivalent precipitation could range significantly, with lower
totals around 0.2 inches on the margins to higher totals of ~0.7
inches near the center of the main band. In spite of some briefly
warmer temperatures with the initial warm front, temperatures even
in valleys locations in the Western Interior will remain fairly
cool, with most precipitation falling as snow. The best chances
for any daytime rain mixing in with snow will be in the Lower
Upper Kuskokwim and Lower Yukon Valleys. Snow ratios could be
high; models soundings indicate potential for saturated dendritic
growth zones which could support ratios of 15:1 or higher at
times. This will allow for many areas to potentially receive 6
inches or more of snow through Tuesday morning, especially between
the Lower Yukon Valley and Bettles. The Dalton Highway Summits,
White Mountains, and Yukon Uplands could also potentially see
several inches of snow accumulation. There is uncertainty on snow
totals for the Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys, but ensemble
guidance supports the potential for at least a few tenths of an
inch of liquid equivalent precipitation with numerous showers in
the area, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. If this
were to verify, multiple inches of snow would be possible in the
area (although this could be affected by melting during afternoon
periods).
While snow totals across much of the West Coast/St. Lawrence
Island will likely be lower than inland, blowing snow will be
possible where fresh or especially falling snow can combine with
strong winds. Blizzard conditions are possible over both the YK
Delta and St. Lawrence Island, but potential will depend on how
much snowfall either area can get (and how winds coincide with
falling snow). On Sunday, while there will generally be zonal
flow aloft over the Alaska Range, which is not usually supportive
of gap winds, there will be a strong surface pressure gradient of
about 6 to 8 mb across the mountains. This will permit
breezy/gusty winds through the passes. Easterly winds will also
pick up on the eastern Arctic Coast from Sunday into Monday night
as high pressure develops over the Beaufort Sea.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday through next Saturday.
Tuesday in Wednesday, cold air with the Arctic trough will again
dip into Western Alaska, dropping highs below freezing. It will
then wrap eastward behind the last remaining snow showers in the
Interior from the previous system and cause high temperatures on
Tuesday to fall into the mid or low 30s even in the warmer valley
areas. This will be short-lived, as another system entering the
eastern Bering Sea pushes a warm front across the area which will
push the cold air back out. Along the front, as with the previous
system, winds will generally be easterly and strongest over the
water. It will also bring another round of precipitation, with
better chances for rain or rain/snow mix in the Western Interior
than with the first system given the warmer airmass. The
precipitation band moves in a more south-to-north direction, which
will also limit the precipitation in the Central/Eastern Interior
to a greater extent while allowing for much more to fall over the
western North Slope. By the late week period, highs in parts of
the Interior could rise into the 50s, with highs on the West Coast
rising back above freezing and highs on the North Slope rising
into the teens above.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ830-852.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834-838-842-843-846.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ803-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-856-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Storm Warning for PKZ851.
Storm Warning for PKZ854.
&&
SYNOPSIS.....MacKay
KEY POINTS...MacKay
UPDATE.......MacKay
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DSSpecial weather statement, Apr 18, 12:30 PM AKST, 6 hours before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
130 PM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026
AKZ818>823-828-200000-
Northern Seward Peninsula-Upper Kobuk Valleys-Shishmaref-
Bering Strait Coast-Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Interior Seward Peninsula-Lower Koyukuk Valley-
Including Deering, Buckland, Candle, Ambler, Shungnak, Kobuk,
Shishmaref, Diomede, Wales, Brevig Mission, Teller, Nome,
White Mountain, Golovin, Serpentine Hot Springs, Council,
Haycock, Pilgrim Springs, Taylor, Huslia, and Hughes
130 PM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026
...Light Snow And Gusty Winds Through Monday...
As a front moves north this weekend, areas of snow will move into
the Seward Peninsula and Western Interior Saturday night into
Sunday. Periods of snow will continue through Sunday night before
lessening in coverage on Monday. Snowfall amounts will be
heaviest east of Nome, especially in the higher terrain, where
around 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected. Gusty northeast winds,
particularly through the Bering Strait, could lead to areas of
blowing snow which could significantly reduce visibility.