Below normal precipitation amounts continued through much of January 2026. The largest deficits of 2 to 3 inches were found across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw severe drought conditions develop across portions of Stewart, Houston, and Montgomery counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Below normal precipitation amounts continued through much of January 2026. The largest deficits of 2 to 3 inches were found across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw severe drought conditions develop across portions of Stewart, Houston, and Montgomery counties. A major winter storm with substantial liquid precipitation brought slight improvement to Middle Tennessee during the end of the month. By the end of January, 30 percent of the area was in at least moderate drought conditions with 6 percent of this classified as severe drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 19, 11:22 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1122 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1122 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 - Increasing confidence in winter weather with major travel impacts this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest. - Coldest temperatures this (Tuesday) morning with low teens and single digits. - Temperatures slightly warmer Wednesday with low to medium chance for rain, very low chance for snow change over Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Very cold conditions will be in place for the start of Tuesday with very dry and cold high pressure sitting over the area. Most locations will start in the lower teens, but there will be some single digits. Thankfully, winds will be light, so wind chills will not be much of an additional issue. Temperatures will rebound daytime Tuesday as high pressure moves off to the east and we pick up some light southerly flow by the afternoon. Highs should be above freezing area wide Tuesday afternoon with the southwest part of the CWA getting above 40. Wednesday will start off cold with lows in the 20s, but that will be about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday morning. It will be breezy on Wednesday with south winds at 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20 mph as a clipper system approaches the area. Models show a good chance for light rain showers Wednesday afternoon into the first half of Wednesday night. It looks like the precipitation should stay as rain. If there is any changeover to a few snowflakes, no accumulations are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 The big story is the increasing potential for a late week / weekend winter storm. Lots of numbers are being thrown around from various models, and other sources, including some numbers that are climatologically ridiculous. It is still too soon to make a good call on exact amounts of snow and ice. Models trends are suggesting mostly or all snow for areas along and north of I-40 with greater concerns for ice mixing with the snow for areas south of I-40. The latest NBM gives about a 50 percent chance for more than 4 inches of snow along and north of I-40 with 30 to 40 percent chances to the south. If we turn to the generally more reliable ECMWF data, the ensemble data shows greatest probs in the 3 to 8 inch range for much of the area. But, the ensemble spread we typically view as "reasonable possibilities" runs from 2 inches to 10 inches. This indicates a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. These ranges will likely tighten up into some useful values over the next couple of days. Regardless of the exact numbers, preparations should begin for significant travel impacts across Middle Tennessee. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there are plenty of details that can derail the snow train. Models vary with how much energy will be ejected out of the southwest US which will impact the strength and location of the surface low over the southeast. Also there is a question of the depth of the cold air. We are highly confident cold air will be in place for wintry conditions, but there could be a narrow nose of warm air over southern sections that would result in a sleety and maybe freezing rain mix, potentially cutting down totals, but still posing travel problems. Another issue that will need to be addressed is timing of initial precipitation. Some models are starting accumulating light snow as soon as Friday, although it looks like the main time frame for accumulations will be Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Hopefully we will see this timing issue improve, but it may be prudent to keep in mind early precipitation start times could occur. After all the wintry stuff has fallen, we may need several days of recovery next week for clear travel to return. Temperatures are expected to stay very cold early next week, maybe not climbing above freezing again until Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Winds will turn to southerly by the morning hours on Tuesday (after 14z). They will remain light, around 5 knots, and become light and variable before picking back up to around 5-10 knots outside of the TAF period Wednesday. Ceilings will remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 15 38 27 48 / 0 0 0 50 Clarksville 13 37 25 46 / 0 0 0 40 Crossville 9 35 21 46 / 0 0 0 60 Columbia 14 40 25 48 / 0 0 0 60 Cookeville 11 34 23 48 / 0 0 0 60 Jamestown 9 32 21 48 / 0 0 0 50 Lawrenceburg 14 40 25 48 / 0 0 0 60 Murfreesboro 11 39 24 49 / 0 0 0 60 Waverly 14 38 27 44 / 0 0 0 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Holley
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions developed across Stewart County during January 2026.
Severe drought conditions developed across Houston County during January 2026.
Severe drought conditions developed across Montgomery County during January 2026.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, January 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1304337, 1304338, 1304339.