Cold in Kentucky, January 20 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
637 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Wind Advisory for the higher West Virginia mountains will
expire at 7 PM this evening as winds begin to trend downward.
Aviation Update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) An arctic front will move through today, bringing a few
light snow showers across the northern parts of the area.
Temperatures well maintain relatively below freezing and wind
gusts of 25 to 40 mph will result in wind chills in the single
digits and teens this afternoon and into the early evening.

2.) Dangerously cold conditions are expected tonight into
Tuesday morning. Wind chills will drop between minus 5 and minus
10 across much of the lowlands, and as low as minus 25 in the
northern mountains. An Extreme Cold Warning for the higher
elevations and Cold Weather Advisories for most of the lowlands
will remain in effect tonight into Tuesday morning.

3.) Temperatures will moderate back toward normal values for
the middle of the week. Another cold front will then reinforce
colder temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend.

4.) Significant uncertainty remains for next weekend regarding
a potential southern stream system that could bring widespread
precipitation and potential for decent snowfall amounts across
the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An Arctic airmass is settling in across the region and will
promote some snow showers or flurries today across much of the
northern parts of the CWA, cannot rule out a few flakes in the
southern portions either, until the clouds clear out this
evening. This colder air will also promote single digit
temperatures tonight as clouds clear out and some valleys
decouple. Wind speeds will remain elevated enough to drop wind
chills into the negative values across much of the area
triggering Extreme Cold Weather Warnings and Cold Weather
Advisories this evening and tonight.

In the northeast mountains winds up to 45mph will increase the
threat of dangerously cold wind chill values as low as minus 25
on the higher ridges and peaks. Winds across the lowlands will
gust into the teens overnight, however a few higher gusts
cannot be ruled out causing wind chills into the minus 5 degree
threshold.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Forecast model soundings hint at enough mixing tonight to
maintain a stronger pressure gradient which will keep winds
elevated area-wide except for some sheltered valleys who should
decouple and go relatively calm or light. Much of the area will
endure temperatures decreasing to the single digits in the
sheltered valleys which along with some weak flow will cause
wind chills to decrease even further into the negative values.

The southern coalfields and Charleston Metro areas will maintain
lows around 10 degrees or low teens with wind chills in the
single digits. This will last through Tuesday morning with
lower wind chills in the higher elevations of the northeast
mountains dropping down to minus 25 degrees. People should take
precautions to protect against frostbite and hypothermia, as
well as ensuring pets and livestock have adequate shelter.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures will moderate back to around seasonable as a
system drags a cold front through by midweek causing southerly
flow to advection some warmer moisture from the deep south. Not
expecting much in the way of impacts with this system as the
lowlands are forecast to receive mainly rainfall and the higher
elevation forecast to receive snowfall. However, the feature is
rather moisture starved and should only squeeze out minimal QPF
amounts.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

After midweeks cold front reinforces colder below seasonable
air to the area by end of the week and into the weekend and
another system will possibly affect some or much of the area
depending on the track it takes for the weekend. This southern
stream system is forecast by the GFS to slide just south of the
area which will create a scenario where some of the area will
receive precipitation in the form of snow due to the reinforced
Arctic air in place. Much of the lowlands may see just a quick
blast with minimal amounts.

Another scenario, such as the EURO bringing the system to a
more northern track, will create the possibility of a more
potent event with significant accumulations possible. Confidence
remains low at this time and things could change, therefore
this system will be worth keeping on eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure yields clear skies and VFR conditions
tonight into Tuesday. Gusty winds this evening will trend
downward overnight, becoming generally light out of the
southwest for the second half of the valid TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>034-039-040-515>521-524-525.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 2 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for KYZ101-102.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...05/JZ
AVIATION...05