Damaging Wind in South Dakota, May 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1206 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shra/isolated TS end early this evening over
  southwest half of CWA
- Cold front drops through late tonight/Monday morning with gusty
  northerly winds behind it as well as some showers
- Mean northwest flow aloft brings unsettled weather through next
  weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

17z surface analysis had weak trough from the Big Horns into the
NE panhandle. Trough reflection of compact shortwave over the Big
Horns per water vapour loop. 0.5km visible satellite matinee
depicted agitated CU/TCU field associated with these features.
Few lightning strikes near the Big Horns with slowly increasing
radar returns over the Black Hills. ~250J/kg SBCAPE out there,
forecast to peak around 500J/kg per SPC HREF. Result will be
scattered shra/isolated TS through early this evening over the
southwest half of the CWA. Enough 0-6km bulk shear to help a storm
if buoyancy were higher, but wouldn't be surprised to see a storm
put out a 30-40kt wind gust given the 18z KUNR sounding.

After the precipitation ends early this evening, next upstream
shortwave trough careens southward into the northern Plains late
tonight/Monday morning pushing a cold front through the CWA.
Decent pressure rises behind front with forecast soundings
depicting well-mixed boundary layer late Monday morning into the
afternoon hours. Result will be gusty northwest winds at times,
especially from K2WX-KRCA where NBM probability of >45mph wind
gusts is 40-70%. Have hoisted a Wind Advisory to account. Band of
800-600mb frontogenesis will support scattered showers
potentially enhancing downward momentum transfer. Temperatures
will be cooler/near guidance.

Mean northwest flow aloft continues for Tuesday through next
weekend with a parade of shortwaves/surface fronts. Result will be
isolated/scattered showers at times. Temperatures will be 5-10F
below normal Tuesday/Wednesday, but then rise to 5-10F above
normal for the weekend. Confidence is fairly high until next
weekend when typical ensemble guidance spreads come into play.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1132 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon into
early evening from northeastern Wyoming into the Black Hills area
and southwestern South Dakota. A few thunderstorms may develop
this afternoon as well. Brief MVFR conditions may be possible in
heavier showers/storms, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday for SDZ001-002-012-
     013-073-078.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Dye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
300 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

SDZ028-032130-
Central Black Hills SD-
300 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PENNINGTON COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 300 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles west of Sheridan Lake, or 3 miles northeast of Hill City,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hill City, Keystone, Rockerville, Mount Rushmore National Memorial,
Sheridan Lake, Keystone Wye, Black Elk Peak, Palmer Gulch Resort, and
Horse Thief Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 10363 4404 10348 4395 10332 4391 10333
      4385 10356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 320DEG 15KT 4398 10354

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schweigert

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
326 PM MDT Sun May 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 SSE Hereford         44.23N 102.83W
05/03/2026  M51 mph          Meade              SD   Mesonet

0319 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     10 W Edgemont           43.30N 104.02W
05/03/2026  M53 mph          Fall River         SD   Dept of Highways

&&

KSmith

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
330 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

SDZ027-041-075-032215-
Western Fall River SD-Eastern Fall River SD-Southern Foothills SD-
330 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FALL RIVER COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM
MDT...

At 330 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Edgemont to 18 miles south
of Redbird. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edgemont, Smithwick, Provo, Rumford, Ardmore, Burdock, Cascade Falls,
and Angostura Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4301 10405 4348 10405 4345 10366 4333 10310
      4300 10340 4300 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 303DEG 36KT 4338 10376 4300 10413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Helgeson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
331 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

SDZ026-028-074-032200-
Central Black Hills SD-Hermosa Foothills SD-Rapid City SD-
331 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CUSTER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Keystone, or 9 miles east of Hill City, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hermosa, Keystone, Hayward, Mount Rushmore National Memorial, Center
Lake, State Game Lodge, Black Hills Playhouse, Horse Thief Lake, and
northeastern Custer State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4390 10352 4394 10327 4380 10312 4374 10345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 320DEG 21KT 4388 10339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schweigert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
348 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

SDZ027-029-030-074-075-032215-
Custer Co Plains SD-Eastern Fall River SD-Southern Black Hills SD-
Hermosa Foothills SD-Southern Foothills SD-
348 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CUSTER AND
NORTHEASTERN FALL RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 348 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Buffalo Gap, or 9 miles northeast of Hot Springs,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oral, Buffalo Gap, and eastern Wind Cave National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 10346 4362 10336 4352 10308 4334 10326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 306DEG 21KT 4354 10336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schweigert

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
400 PM MDT Sun May 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 W Ardmore             43.04N 103.80W
05/03/2026  M53 mph          Fall River         SD   Mesonet

&&

KSmith