What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 12:59 PM PST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 3, 12:59 PM PST, 2 hours 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
159 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
.DISCUSSION...Radar returns are showing activity developing over
southeast Klamath County early this afternoon, following westward
flow wrapping around a cutoff low. Activity looks to increase later
into the afternoon, especially over Siskiyou County. Northwest flow
aloft is expected to move activity over Jackson and Josephine
counties. Curry and Douglas counties may see some activity as well.
Overall rainfall amounts are fairly negligible, but periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall are possible under any thunderstorm. This
may be more likely in the Illinois Valley, which has estimates of
0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall through tonight. Thunderstorms may
also bring erratic gusty winds as well as lightning. Rain showers
may continue into tonight but should dissipate by early Monday
morning.
Another round of thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday
afternoon and evening. With the cutoff low farther to the east, most
activity is expected over Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Southern Lake
and Klamath counties may also see some activity. Modeled CAPE values
are somewhat moderate, in the 400-600 J/Kg range. This is enough to
support additional thunderstorms but doesn't imply severe activity.
Rain showers are expected as well, with amounts in the 0.2 to 0.5
inch range possible along the Lake/Modoc southern border.
An upper ridge settles into place through the day Tuesday and looks
to remain in control of conditions through the rest of the forecast
period and beyond. The Oregon coast is forecast to be about 5
degrees above seasonal norms, with highs in the mid 60s. Inland areas
are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Areas east of the
Cascades as well as the Umpqua Valley have forecast highs in the
high 70s to low 80s, while other west side valleys could reach the
mid 80s. A passing front could flatten the ridge somewhat, bringing
a bit of relief into Friday and Saturday before temperatures rebound
on Sunday. NBM probabilistic data keeps Medford out of the 90s for
this week, but has 40-60% chances for next Sunday and into the start
of the following week. -TAD
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across most of the
region with mid and high level clouds streaming in from the south.
Along the coast, LIFR conditions in fog will persist through much of
the morning. Marine stratus will be rather persistent today, but
should lift to at least IFR during the afternoon hours before fog
and low ceilings fill back in this evening and overnight.
Another round of shower/thunderstorm activity is expected this
afternoon and evening. Storm motion will be from east to west today
with guidance showing the focus of activity occurring across
northern California into Jackson/Josephine Counties, and even
possibly as far north as Roseburg. Expect gusty and erratic winds
in the vicinity of thunderstorms today.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, May 3, 2026...An extended
period of relatively calm conditions begins today, with seas
remaining below 10 ft for the next several days. Light south winds
and fog are expected through Monday night, with gradually
diminishing seas. Moderate north winds return by Thursday, with
stronger north winds possible late next weekend with the return of
the thermal trough.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 3, 12:37 PM PST, 2 hours 58 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
137 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
ORZ025-032100-
Eastern Douglas County Foothills OR-
137 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Douglas
County through 200 PM PDT...
At 137 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Scaredman Recreation Site, or 28 miles southwest of Oakridge, moving
southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail possible.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Scaredman Recreation Site, Bogus Creek Recreation Site, and
Steamboat.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4330 12264 4331 12282 4343 12282 4344 12267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 336DEG 4KT 4338 12273
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
BPNSpecial weather statement, May 3, 2:24 PM PST, 1 hour 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
324 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
ORZ023-025-026-032315-
Jackson County OR-Eastern Douglas County Foothills OR-
Central Douglas County OR-
324 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Douglas and northwestern Jackson Counties through 415 PM PDT...
At 324 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Three C Rock Campground, or 34 miles southeast of Roseburg, moving
southwest at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Douglas and northwestern Jackson Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4298 12282 4288 12271 4262 12304 4281 12323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 052DEG 17KT 4289 12283
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
ANHSpecial weather statement, May 3, 2:35 PM PST, 1 hour before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
335 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
ORZ026-028-032315-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades OR-Jackson County OR-
335 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Jackson County through 415 PM PDT...
At 335 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Emigrant Lake, or near Ashland, moving southwest at 15 mph. This
includes portions of I-5 from Phoenix to south of Ashland in Jackson
County.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Talent, and Phoenix.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4233 12258 4222 12250 4210 12275 4223 12296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 059DEG 11KT 4222 12261
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
ANHSpecial weather statement, May 3, 3:01 PM PST, 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
401 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
ORZ024-026-028-032345-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades OR-
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County OR-Jackson County OR-
401 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Jackson
and east central Josephine Counties through 445 PM PDT...
At 401 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodrat Mountain, or 13 miles southwest of Medford, moving west at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
McKee Bridge Recreation Site, Williams, Woodrat Mountain, Cantrall
Buckley County Park, Applegate, Ruch, and Provolt.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4221 12294 4210 12298 4214 12332 4236 12323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 109DEG 13KT 4219 12302
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
ANHSpecial weather statement, May 3, 3:16 PM PST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
416 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
ORZ026-040000-
Jackson County OR-
416 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Jackson
County through 500 PM PDT...
At 416 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
White City, or near Medford, moving southwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Medford, Central Point, Eagle Point, Jacksonville, Britt Gardens,
Touvelle State Park, Agate Reservoir, and White City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 12279 4243 12275 4226 12293 4238 12304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 047DEG 13KT 4243 12281
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
ANHSpecial weather statement, May 3, 3:35 PM PST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
435 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
ORZ024-026-040015-
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County OR-Jackson County OR-
435 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Jackson
and northeastern Josephine Counties through 515 PM PDT...
At 434 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Touvelle State Park, or 8 miles north of Medford, moving southwest at
20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and near half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Central Point, Rogue River, Gold Hill, Lower Table Rock Trailhead,
Valley Of The Rogue State Park, Touvelle State Park, White City, and
Upper Table Rock Trailhead.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4256 12287 4241 12279 4231 12319 4246 12326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 067DEG 19KT 4245 12292
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ANH