Hail in Illinois, May 3 to 4, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
616 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of blowing dust will continue until winds subside this
  evening, producing localized visibilities of near zero. The
  most likely area for hazardous blowing dust channels is east
  of the Illinois River and north of I-70.

- A few thunderstorms are forecast over parts of central and
  southeast Illinois this evening into tonight, with the highest
  chances (30-50%) south of a Jacksonville to Paris line. More
  numerous storms are forecast tomorrow evening into early
  Tuesday morning.

- Each round of storms will carry a level 1 of 5 (marginal)
  risk for severe weather, with isolated large hail and locally
  damaging wind gusts the primary hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

This afternoon, blowing dust has resulted from strong
southwesterly winds gusting over 40 mph. Several areas of near
zero visibility have been reported in Sangamon, Logan,
Christian, Macon, and Shelby counties at this point, with
numerous reports of localized blowing dust in additional
portions of central IL. The corridor of strongest winds looks as
if it will shift eastward into east-central IL late this
afternoon. Winds should decrease below 30 mph gusts by sunset
alleviating blowing dust issues. Have issued a Blowing Dust
Advisory for areas east of the Illinois River and north of I-70,
as well as Knox and Peoria County where additional blowing dust
reports have been received. Several localized Dust Storm
Warnings have been issued.

HREF continues to advertise 500-1000 J/kg CAPE extending
northeastward into parts of central IL up to around a Jacksonville
to Robinson line. Along with 50 kts bulk shear, this could result in
a few strong to severe storms after around 6 pm when a capping
inversion is finally overcome along with weak low level convergence
and warm advection associated with a strengthening low level jet.
SPC continues a Marginal Risk for severe hail and 60 mph wind gusts
in this area. CAMS depict this activity festering through the night,
with gradually decreasing instability. Showers should decrease in
the morning as the low level jet weakens. Instability looks to
strengthen during the daytime Monday, although with largely absent
forcing and a cap depicted in forecast soundings, chances for
thunderstorms will be low until evening as a low level jet develops
and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Overnight, another
round of thunderstorms, possibly with large hail and locally severe
winds is likely, and SPC has another Marginal Risk depicted for
the entire forecast area. The front will likely stall out
across the area Tuesday morning, however models depict very
little instability redeveloping this far north and hence severe
weather probabilities are low. Nevertheless, moderate amounts of
precipitation could be seen Tuesday as a shortwave disturbance,
southwesterly flow bringing precipitable water exceeding 1.25
inches, and a frontogenetical zone traverse the area. Ensemble
mean precipitation ranges from around 1/2 inch west of I-55 up
to 1.25 inch of rainfall south of I-70 on Tuesday, but under 5%
chance of exceeding 2 inches.

Precipitation amounts and chances are lower Wednesday through
Saturday as the main large scale trough axis shifts eastward and a
cool, drier northwest flow resumes. Nevertheless, a few disturbances
embedded withing the northwest flow could produce at least
occasional light precipitation. The next impactful system could be
next Sunday, however predominant ensemble guidance tracks this
through the southern states and minimizes rainfall or severe weather
impacts this far north.

Temperatures will trend strongly upward for Monday as southerly flow
ahead of the approaching cold front impacts the area, and highs are
forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s. Tuesday should see much
cooler temperatures as the front crosses over much of the area
by afternoon, along with cloudy, rainy conditions, and highs are
forecast from upper 50s north of I-72 to mid 60s south of I-70.
Upper 50s are forecast across the area Wednesday, then a
warming trend brings highs back up to 70s/near normal by next
weekend. While not anticipated at this time, any clear calm
night late in the upcoming week could support some early morning
frost. At this point, lows in the 40s appear more likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Southwest winds will decrease this evening, with speeds between 7-10
kts overnight. Scattered storms are possible this evening mainly
south of I-72 and could affect KSPI for a few hours after 00Zs.
Southwest winds pick up once again by mid to late morning with gusts
increasing to around 25-30 kts through the afternoon. There is
another low chance for isolated storms after 18Z, though confidence
in timing/placement remains low and have not included at this time.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the majority of
the TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027-
029-031-037-038-041>057-061.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...NMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
240 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-053>057-062-063-067-068-072-073-041945-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-
Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-
Edgar-Cumberland-Clark-Jasper-Crawford-Richland-Lawrence-
240 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Blowing dust may cause visibility between 1/4 to 1 mile in blowing
dust at times this afternoon through sunset, with localized less than
1/4 mile periodically.

River flooding will continue on several area rivers. Please refer to
the latest river flood statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

River flooding will continue on several area rivers. Please refer to
the latest river flood statements for details.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday evening. There is a
marginal risk that some of the storms Monday night could produce
severe weather with damaging winds and isolated large hail the main
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ040-047>052-061-066-071-041945-
Schuyler-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Shelby-
Effingham-Clay-
240 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, southeast
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Blowing dust may cause visibility between 1/4 to 1 mile in blowing
dust at times this afternoon through sunset, with localized less than
1/4 mile periodically.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast tonight. There is a marginal
risk that some of the storms could become severe with damaging winds
and isolated large hail the main threat.

River flooding will continue on several area rivers. Please refer to
the latest river flood statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

River flooding will continue on several area rivers. Please refer to
the latest river flood statements for details.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Monday night. There is a
marginal risk that some of the storms could also produce severe
weather. Again, damaging winds and isolated large hail will be the
main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Copple

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1020 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

ILZ066-067-071-040345-
Clay-Effingham-Jasper-
1020 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM
CDT...

At 1020 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Edgewood, or 16 miles southwest of Effingham, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Flora, Louisville, Edgewood, Bible Grove, Iola, and Hord.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 142 and 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 8870 3891 8870 3892 8877 3896 8875
      3888 8836 3886 8836 3868 8848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 300DEG 34KT 3890 8870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NMA