Hail in Illinois, May 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
624 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from the late
  evening into early tonight, mainly between U.S. Route 36 and
  the I- 70 corridor.

- Additional chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms
  are forecast Monday night, with periods of rain continuing into
  Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A weak cold front is approaching from the northwest this afternoon,
with recent surface analysis unveiling this front across
southeastern IA, stretching southwestward into northwestern MO.
Water vapor imagery reveals that broad cyclonic flow envelops
southern Canada with shortwave ridging out west ahead of a cutoff
low across the Baja Coast. This pattern places our area under
northwesterly flow aloft with a low/mid-level shortwave propagating
over the region today. This feature has worked to produce scattered
showers across northeast MO/west-central IL today. Overall, this
activity has been light in nature, with virga being a common
observation, thanks to dry air in the low-levels and meager forcing
for ascent aloft. The most notable impact on the sensible weather
has been an increase in mid-level clouds from the northwest, leading
to slightly cooler afternoon temperatures where clouds have been
more prevalent. Otherwise, increased southwesterly low-level flow
today ahead of the approaching cold front, has boosted temperatures
into the low 70s for most locations this afternoon.

The previously mentioned weak cold front will work its way southward
into the area, eventually washing out as it nears the I-70 corridor
early tonight. Recent CAMs show convective initiation between U.S.
Route 36 and the I-70 corridor late this evening around sunset with
southeastward progression of showers and thunderstorms overnight as
the 850mb low-level jet strengthens to 40-50kts. The 850mb jet will
be parallel to the remnants of the cold front, potentially resulting
in training showers and thunderstorms. Fortunately, mean PWATs
progged by high-resoltion guidance stay below 1", which lowers the
threat for heavy rainfall. Regardless, localized amounts of up to 1"
of rainfall are possible for locations where multiple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms move over, which may cause typical ponding on
roadways where the heavier rates occur. A marginal threat for severe
weather exists with both the HREF and REFS revealing pockets of
1,000 J/kg SBCAPE by mid-evening, with quickly waning instability
after sunset. Forecast model soundings reveal a cap inversion around
the 800-700mb layer, with potential erosion of this cap into the
late evening. Effective layer shear near 30kts may be sufficient for
organization of sustained updrafts, resulting in the potential for
an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. As a result, this threat
remains conditional on a narrow window of favorable conditions when
thunderstorms would be able to tap into better instability. Storms
that are able to become strong/severe late this evening have the
potential to produce hail up to 1 inch, with a lesser threat for
damaging winds.

A secondary and stronger cold front will be making its way southward
across the Upper Midwest on Monday, leading to yet another day of
increased low-level southerly flow resulting in warm/moist
advection. In fact, temperatures are forecast to be even warmer on
Monday with widespread highs in the upper 70s along with lower 80s
possible across southern MO and the St. Louis Metro heat island. By
Monday evening, the HREF and REFS both reveal near 2,000 J/kg of
SBCAPE. However, forecast model soundings show that the open warm
sector Monday afternoon/evening across the area remains well capped,
with most CAMs not initiating anything until the low-level jet ramps
up around sunset. At that time, the most likely position of the cold
front will be near northern MO, where additional showers and storms
may be ongoing. Once again, with this conditional setup, a marginal
threat for severe weather is in place with hail and damaging winds
the primary threats. As the front sinks southward into the area
interacting with the nearly parallel 850mb low-level jet, widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area. Model
guidance still varies on the southward evolution of this cold front,
with slower solutions not exiting the front out of the area until
Tuesday night. As a result, confidence remains low with the forecast
for temperatures and precipitation chances on Tuesday. Locations
under the post-frontal airmass on Tuesday may experience a falling
of temperatures throughout the day, or a flattening of the typical
diurnal temperature curve, with highs in the 50s expected north of
the I-70 corridor.

Peine

&&

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

At the start of the extended, continued broad cyclonic flow across
southern Canada will be phasing with a cutoff low near the Great
Plains. As these features move over the region, mostly cloudy
conditions along with scattered chances for showers will exist on
Wednesday. At the surface, the aforementioned cold front will be
well off to the southeast, placing the entire region under the much
cooler post-frontal airmass. With modest low-level CAA and a mostly
cloudy sky forecast, high temperatures on Wednesday will be at least
20 degrees below average with afternoon temperatures maxing out in
the 50s across the entire area.

By the end of next, model guidance varies with the placement of many
important large scale features, resulting in more uncertainty with
temperatures and precipitation chances for the area. The general
consensus is that a stretch of dry weather will prevail Thursday
through the end of the week with a gradual warming trend from the
mid-week chill. Recent LREF temperature IQRs indicate this well with
spreads of 7-10 degrees centered near values that are below average
on Thursday, but near average Friday into Saturday.

Peine

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions continue for the most part. The primary concern
will be the potential for thunderstorms which could at times
impact any terminal. The chances are too low to mention at most
sites, but just high enough for a mention at the St Louis area
sites tonight. Additional showers or a rogue thunderstorm are
possible late tomorrow afternoon, but again the chances are quite
low. A better chances arrives later tomorrow night, but this is
just outside the current TAF period. Winds were gusty today and
are expected to diminish within the next 2 hours, but they ramp
back up again tomorrow morning out of the southwest at all sites.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
355 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-042100-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
355 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAYS ONE THROUGH SEVEN...This afternoon through Saturday.

More detailed information can be accessed at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/lsx/DssPacket.pdf

The Area Forecast Discussion is available at:
https://forecast.weather.gov/
product.php?issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&site=lsx

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from the late
  evening into early tonight, mainly between U.S. Route 36 and
  the I- 70 corridor.

- Additional chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms
  are forecast Monday night, with periods of rain continuing into
  Tuesday night.

NOTE: Starting May 29, 2026, this outlook product will be
discontinued. Please see the above products for more detailed
forecast information.

WFO LSX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
920 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     Hail             3 ENE Kingdom City      38.96N 91.88W
05/03/2026  M0.25 Inch       Callaway           MO   Trained Spotter

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
921 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     Hail             1 S Fulton              38.84N 91.95W
05/03/2026  E0.25 Inch       Callaway           MO   Public

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1007 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     Hail             Hawk Point              38.97N 91.13W
05/03/2026  E1.75 Inch       Lincoln            MO   Public

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1016 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     Hail             Troy                    38.98N 90.98W
05/03/2026  E1.75 Inch       Lincoln            MO   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1021 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             2 S Truxton             38.98N 91.23W
05/03/2026  E1.50 Inch       Warren             MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

1002 PM     Hail             2 SW Cave               39.00N 91.06W
05/03/2026  E1.00 Inch       Lincoln            MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1055 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     Hail             Elsah                   38.96N 90.35W
05/03/2026  M0.25 Inch       Jersey             IL   Emergency Mngr

&&

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