What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 6:49 PM EST, 3 hours 56 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1. Showers and thunderstorms expected through next week
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 6:49 PM EST, 3 hours 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
749 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated forecast for showers and thunderstorms tonight and
tomorrow with marginal threat of severe weather. Aviation
updated for 00Z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Showers and thunderstorms expected through next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Showers and thunderstorms expected through next
week
The synoptic pattern is persistent through next week with upper
level ridging over the western Atlantic and upper disturbances
lifting to the west and north. Global ensemble mean precipitable
water values are in the 1.5-2.0 inch range through most of next
week. This pattern supports at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms enhanced by the shortwave activity throughout the
period. The most active timeframe may be tonight and Saturday.
The axis of the ridge will be a little further east at this time
allowing the deeper moisture and better upper support into the
forecast area. The blended guidance shows likely to categorical
rain chances through the holiday weekend. While most areas will
likely see rainfall (especially northern and western portions of
the forecast area), this may be a bit deceiving as the
convection may be more periodic as opposed to a complete washout
with persistent rain. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
lead to localized heavy rainfall each day, particularly if
training cells develop. This raises concern for localized flash
flooding mainly in urban and flood prone areas.
Severe potential through Saturday: Isolated strong
thunderstorms are ongoing across the CWA with most coverage
across the CSRA and North/West of I-20. SPC Mesoanalysis
showing mlCAPE around 1500 J/kg and locally enhanced helicity
along the wedge boundary in the Upstate and western Midlands. A
low level jet will lift out of the Deep South and into the
Southern Appalachians tonight and Saturday advecting moisture
and increasing shear over the forecast area. An outflow boundary
from storms to our west should trigger additional convection
this evening as it moves east. An upper level shortwave will
help sustain the storms as they move into the western FA
possibly leading to elevated thunderstorms this evening and
tonight. With poor low level lapse rates the threat of severe
weather is low but can't be ruled out. The higher threat of
severe weather is Saturday with 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear over
the region which could allow multicell clusters or bowing
segments to develop in the afternoon. Confidence is low though
given the expected widespread cloud cover and rainfall over the
area which could hinder lapse rates.
The pattern remains active in the extended with a persistent
ridge to our east and troughing to the west. PWAT values remain
above 1.5 inches through the period with SW flow over the
Southeast. This pattern will support daily shower and
thunderstorm chances through next week. In general the
convective activity should follow a diurnal trend but shortwave
troughs may sustain storms outside of the afternoon timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mix of restrictions likely throughout the TAF period with scattered
showers and storms.
A fairly moisture rich summer pattern continues across the
region with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue as we head into
the overnight hours. Most of the activity so far has remained
south towards AGS/DNL as well as north and west of I-20.
Coverage will become more widespread later this evening with
thunderstorm potential also increasing. TAFs reflect the
increasing coverage into the evening with a transition from
PROB30 to TEMPO for all terminals. Winds this evening will
remain generally out of the south, 6-10 knots before subsiding
overnight. Showers and storms should then subside later tonight
leaving widespread likely IFR cigs Saturday morning. Additional
rounds of showers and storms likely Saturday afternoon towards
the end of the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Abundant low level moisture will
bring more rounds of morning restrictions from fog/stratus
through the weekend along with scattered afternoon showers and
storms possible each day into the middle of next week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...CJR/CAL
AVIATION...ND
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 22, 4:52 PM EST, 5 hours 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
552 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ040-064-SCZ018-222230-
Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-
552 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Columbia, Lincoln and McCormick Counties through 630 PM EDT...
At 552 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elijah Clark State Park, or 23 miles east of Washington, moving north
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Elijah Clark State Park, Mccormick County
Airport, Hamilton Branch State Park, Lake Strom Thurmond, Parksville,
Plum Branch, Bordeaux, Modoc, Scott's Landing, Knox Scout
Reservation, Double Branches, Fishing Creek Public Hunting Area,
Curry Hill, Chennault, Modoc Boat Ramp, Bussey Point Campground, New
Hope, and Long Cane Creek Picnic Area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3397 8264 3396 8256 3402 8259 3408 8248
3406 8245 3406 8233 3397 8230 3402 8224
3398 8221 3398 8211 3394 8210 3393 8216
3383 8212 3376 8217 3369 8217 3367 8221
3370 8233 3364 8248 3395 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 182DEG 13KT 3383 8236
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MGSpecial weather statement, May 22, 5:15 PM EST, 5 hours 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
615 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
SCZ020>022-028-116-222300-
Fairfield SC-Southern Lancaster SC-Newberry SC-Richland SC-
Kershaw SC-
615 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Fairfield,
southwestern Lancaster, northeastern Newberry, northwestern Richland
and northwestern Kershaw Counties through 700 PM EDT...
At 614 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near VC Summer Nuclear Station to near Lake
Wateree Dam. Movement was north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Winnsboro, Lake Wateree Dam, VC Summer Nuclear Station, Kershaw,
Elgin, Heath Springs, Fairfield County Airport, Westville,
Jenkinsville, Liberty Hill, Monticello, Longtown, Blair, Lake Wateree
State Park, Fishing Creek Reservoir, Ridgeway, Little Mountain,
Pomaria, Peak, and Lebanon Fire Station.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 26 between mile markers 84 and 87.
Interstate 77 between mile markers 30 and 50.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3470 8054 3430 8056 3420 8144 3449 8148
3449 8146 3450 8142 3457 8142 3454 8088
3457 8087 3460 8089 3466 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 183DEG 22KT 3428 8135 3436 8074
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CAL/NDSpecial weather statement, May 22, 5:31 PM EST, 5 hours 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
SCZ018-025-026-222315-
McCormick SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
631 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Edgefield, western
Saluda and northeastern McCormick Counties through 715 PM EDT...
At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Abbeville to near Troy to
6 miles southwest of Edgefield. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Edgefield, Saluda, McCormick, Johnston, Mccormick County Airport,
Saluda County Airport, Bradley, Lick Fork Campground, Strom Thurmond
High School, Good Hope, Harmony, Pleasant Lane, Mt Vintage, Northside
Fire Station Main, Cleora, Colliers, Whitetown, Edgefield Federal
Correction Institution, and Mount Carmel.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3408 8248 3406 8245 3406 8233 3397 8230
3402 8224 3398 8220 3398 8205 3396 8205
3395 8203 3413 8187 3417 8187 3393 8168
3362 8201 3390 8227 3406 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 212DEG 28KT 3408 8244 3398 8222 3373 8202
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CALLocal storm report, May 22, 6:21 PM EST, 4 hours 24 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
721 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0525 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SE Thomson 33.44N 82.48W
05/22/2026 McDuffie GA Trained Spotter
Spotter reports tree branches down with
power outages reported. Time estimated by
radar.
&&Special weather statement, May 22, 6:50 PM EST, 3 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
750 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-035-230030-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-Barnwell SC-
Aiken SC-McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
750 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...Another line of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
McDuffie, Columbia, Lincoln, Burke, Richmond, southwestern
Edgefield, southwestern Barnwell, southwestern Aiken and McCormick
Counties through 830 PM EDT...
At 749 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of
Lincolnton to near Warrenton to 8 miles north of Herndon. Movement
was northeast at 30 mph.
...Boaters on Lake Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
North Augusta, Grovetown, Evans, Thomson, Waynesboro, Fort Gordon,
Augusta, Clearwater, Martinez, Plant Vogtle, Belvedere, Hephzibah,
McCormick, Harlem, Jackson, Lincolnton, Glendale, Gough, South
Augusta, and Clarks Hill Recreation Area.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 166 and 201.
Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 0 and 8.
Interstate 520 in Georgia between mile markers 1 and 15.
Interstate 520 in South Carolina between mile markers 16 and 23.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
If on or near Lake Thurmond, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3365 8258 3365 8249 3391 8262 3397 8259
3396 8256 3399 8258 3407 8253 3406 8233
3397 8231 3402 8224 3377 8197 3308 8165
3292 8197 3292 8208 3287 8213 3300 8228
3323 8223 3331 8234 3336 8255 3360 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 207DEG 25KT 3384 8257 3339 8270 3294 8211
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CAL