Hail in Oklahoma, May 23, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
130 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- A few strong to severe storms could be possible into tonight
  mainly across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent western
  north Texas. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary
  hazards.

- Sunday and Monday may feature a drier period before increasing
  rain and storm chances return again mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Two MCVs are moving across the area today. One MCV has been moving
across the fa all morning and was centered near Osage county around
mid-day. Another smaller MCV has developed near the OK/KS border and
was over Alfalfa county at mid-day as well. The MCVs has continued
shower and some thunderstorm development across portions of the fa
this morning. The MCVs are expected to move east across the area
this afternoon, although the larger one has slowed down compared to
earlier this morning. The MCVs will help maintain shower/storm
chances across northern and eastern portions of the fa through the
afternoon.

Some of the CAMs show some new scattered storm development possible
in NW portions of the fa near an outflow boundary this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty whether activity will develop into NW
portions of the fa due to the affects from the morning activity and
how much recovery can occur. However, there has been some clearing
in this area allowing for heating and radar shows a storm has
developed near this boundary in the eastern TX panhandle.
Instability of 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible in this area so if
these storms do develop into the area, they could become strong to
maybe severe.

Later this afternoon, models also show storms developing in the High
Plains of west TX and NM. This activity is expected to move E and SE
and could eventually move into western/southwestern portions of the
fa later this evening/overnight. With the lack of a strong LLJ to
help maintain development, this activity is expected to be weakening
as it moves into the area but a few storms could still be
strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. The
showers/storms are expected to end/move out of the fa late
tonight/early Sunday.

Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon with
highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will then fall into the
50s and 60s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A brief dry period is expected for most of the area Sunday and
Monday. Models show an upper low meandering across TX during this
time before lifting north towards the fa Monday night. This will
keep rain chances out of much of the fa until the upper low moves
closer although if the low tracks closer to the fa than models are
showing some rain chances would be possible across southern portions
of the fa.

Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average
across the area both Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The upper low to the south in Texas will lift northward by Tuesday
with southwesterly flow returning aloft. Rain chances are expected
to return Tuesday and Wednesday with the subtropical jet and
embedded disturbances in the flow ahead of a strong upper low
digging into the Pacific Northwest. Similarly to earlier in the
week, most of the storms are likely to be late in the evening after
developing along the higher terrain to the west.

However, towards the end of the week, there is some discrepancies in
the evolution of this next trough/low. Brief ridging ahead of the
system could bring another day or two of lull in precipitation, but
if the system continues to eject eastward, then additional rain and
storms chances could continue through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming period.
Chances for scattered rain/thunder will persist through this
evening across northern Oklahoma, especially at KWWR & KPNC.
Another round of (likely decaying) activity is expected to arrive
late tonight/early Sunday and offer potential for brief category
reductions near and south of the Red River.

Also monitoring increasing potential for areas of stratus and/or
fog across the eastern one-half of Oklahoma during the predawn
hours on Sunday. For now, have only included reduced category
(MVFR) at KDUA during this time, though expansion in time/space is
possible at later updates.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  81  63  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         60  84  61  86 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  84  62  85 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           55  83  60  86 /  30   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     59  81  61  84 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         66  82  66  83 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
249 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

OKZ014-232015-
Roger Mills OK-
249 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Roger
Mills County through 315 PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Reydon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Reydon, and Roll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 10000 3581 9964 3557 9961 3557 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 264DEG 22KT 3567 9993

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
333 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

OKZ014-232100-
Roger Mills OK-
333 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Roger
Mills County through 400 PM CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Reydon, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dempsey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 9989 3555 9964 3548 9971 3542 9988
      3542 9989 3556 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 299DEG 13KT 3555 9988

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
411 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

OKZ009-014-232145-
Roger Mills OK-Ellis OK-
411 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Ellis
and northwestern Roger Mills Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Durham, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Durham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 10000 3591 9980 3577 9990 3580 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 310DEG 6KT 3592 10002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Ware

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
422 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

OKZ014-021-232145-
Roger Mills OK-Beckham OK-
422 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Roger
Mills and northwestern Beckham Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Sweetwater, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sayre, Sweetwater, Berlin, and Dempsey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 9994 3556 9978 3542 9950 3523 9973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 313DEG 14KT 3545 9979

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Ware

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
445 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

OKZ009-014-232215-
Roger Mills OK-Ellis OK-
445 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Ellis
and northwestern Roger Mills Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Durham, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crawford, Durham, and Roll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9992 3580 9964 3562 9985 3579 10000
      3590 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 313DEG 14KT 3587 9993

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Ware