What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 11:47 PM CST, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Flood Watch remains in effect for most of SE Texas.
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Some may be strong at times. Locally heavy rainfall is possible leading to the potential of flash flooding. Additional intermittent periods of rain/storms are anticipated Sunday and Monday for parts of the area.
- Mariners should remain weather aware this holiday weekend. Be prepared for higher winds/seas in and near storms and allow yourself plenty of extra time to return to shore before hazardous weather threatens.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 11:47 PM CST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flood Watch remains in effect for most of SE Texas.
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Some may be strong
at times. Locally heavy rainfall is possible leading to the
potential of flash flooding. Additional intermittent periods of
rain/storms are anticipated Sunday and Monday for parts of the area.
- Mariners should remain weather aware this holiday weekend. Be
prepared for higher winds/seas in and near storms and allow yourself
plenty of extra time to return to shore before hazardous weather
threatens.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Upper low near Baja will make its way eastward this weekend. In
advance, there will be multiple disturbances in the flow aloft to
trigger shower/thunderstorm activity across the region. Guidance in
these type of patterns is typically less than stellar in terms of
specifics (timing, location, rain amounts, etc) and given the spread
in incoming 00z model guidance, satellite, & radar trends...that
generally holds true in this situation too.
There is considerable uncertainty how everything unfolds today. We
currently have a string of eastward moving, n-s oriented, shortwaves
stretching from the eastern Panhandle to the Hill Country to about
the Big Bend area. Another, stronger looking, disturbance emerging
west of Cabo tracking northeastward into nctl Mexico. In the low
levels, if one squints hard enough, there is a little bit of speed
convergence setting up along the upper Tx coast and some pooling
1.6-1.9" PW's. I think with the approach of the shortwave(s) and
heating after sunrise, shra/tstms should blossom as the day
progresses. Suspect everything will eventually be run on the
mesoscale with boundary interactions, cold pools, etc....
In terms of the Flood Watch, considering the overall uncertainty, I
don't think I could add any value with making adjustments. Generally
speaking, model qpf's have been on a downward trend for a few
days...now mostly forecasting 1-3" amounts (mostly south of a
Livingston-Columbus line. However, some of the incoming 00z guidance
is still advertising some VERY localized 4-7" amounts. NSSL WRF is
the most concerning one I've seen so far...with a swath of high
amounts across the coastal counties in the same spots that saw the
high amounts the other day. There's a non-zero risk of some
borderline strong/severe cells as well, but overall think rain rates
and downpours will be the more significant risk.
Upper trof tracks into central Tx tonight, and into east Tx Sun-Mon.
Continued chances of rain will persist, with the better chances
east/southeast of where the trof axis is situated (say Matagorda Bay-
Houston-Livingston or so). Would however think the overall coverage
and amounts will be lower and will make downward POP adjustments Mon-
Tue. Things might get active again toward midweek as the next
western trof drops toward the Desert Southwest. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Mid/upper disturbances will move across Texas tonight. These
disturbances have already produced SHRA/TSRA in central and northern
parts of the state. Most guidance shows this SHRA/TSRA activity
dissipating overnight. While this scenario is possible, we are
also noticing a fair amount of atmospheric instability across the
region and cannot rule out overnight / early morning SHRA/TSRA in
some of our terminals. For now, we have opted to add PROB30 SHRA
to all TAFs for the early morning hours, while keeping TSRA in
the TAFs for this afternoon. This forecast is very much in flux
and future amendments are likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Look for maily onshore winds in the 10-15kt and 2-4ft seas to
prevail through the holiday weekend, but with the disclaimer that
wind directions, speeds and seas can and probably will be disrupted
in and near several periods of thunderstorms. Pressure gradient
tightens toward midweek with a corresponding increase in speeds &
wave heights. 47
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected this
evening through Monday. The first round will start tonight bringing
2-4 " with isolated higher amounts of 5-6+". With PW values
exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr
are possible in the heaviest downpours. Anywhere we see these
intense rainfall rates, localized flash flooding is possible. The
greatest concern for the heaviest rainfall is Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning, but there is the possibly of heavy
downpours through the entire weekend.
Rises to action to minor flood stage are likely though the weekend
especially on flashier responding basins. Isolated moderate to major
stage flooding is not out of the question depending on where the
most rainfall accumulates. We will need to monitor area rivers and
bayous over the next several days to see exactly where the heaviest
rain falls. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts
via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).
Going into next week, we will have monitor the forecast for
additional moderate to heavy rainfall on top of primed soils as this
will generate more runoff than normal. That being said, it is still
too early to tell exactly which basins will have long term issues.
Landry-Guyton
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 68 83 68 / 60 50 40 30
Houston (IAH) 84 71 82 70 / 70 70 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 84 75 82 75 / 70 80 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ164-177>179-197>200-
210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 23, 2:53 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ210-226-235-230930-
Wharton TX-Colorado TX-Inland Jackson TX-
353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...WEST
CENTRAL WHARTON AND NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM
CDT...
At 353 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Speaks, or 14 miles west of El Campo, moving east at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
El Campo and Nada.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2926 9666 2934 9656 2942 9637 2931 9624
2917 9626 2914 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 253DEG 17KT 2924 9651
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BaileySpecial weather statement, May 23, 3:18 AM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
418 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ226-227-235>237-335>337-230945-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Matagorda TX-Inland Matagorda TX-
Wharton TX-Coastal Jackson TX-Fort Bend TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
Inland Jackson TX-
418 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WHARTON...EAST CENTRAL JACKSON...
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND...SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA AND NORTHERN MATAGORDA
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...
At 418 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Boling-Iago, or 13 miles west of West Columbia,
moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Rosenberg, Lake Jackson, Bay City, El Campo, Wharton, West Columbia,
Sweeny, Brazoria, Needville, Pleak, Fairchilds, western Bailey's
Prairie, Beasley, Kendleton, Pierce, Van Vleck, Boling-Iago, Wild
Peach Village, Cumings, and Blessing.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2880 9637 2933 9641 2962 9582 2902 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0918Z 233DEG 23KT 2919 9587
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BaileySpecial weather statement, May 23, 3:45 AM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
445 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ213-226-227-236>238-337-437-231015-
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Matagorda TX-Wharton TX-
Inland Galveston TX-Brazoria Islands TX-Inland Harris TX-
Fort Bend TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
445 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN WHARTON...NORTHWESTERN
GALVESTON...FORT BEND...BRAZORIA...NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM CDT...
At 445 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairchilds, or 11 miles south of Rosenberg, moving northeast at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, southwestern Friendswood,
Rosenberg, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Stafford, Bay City,
Bellaire, Richmond, Clute, Wharton, Manvel, West Columbia, Sweeny,
Fresno, Mission Bend, and Town West.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2891 9621 2938 9624 2983 9572 2959 9523
2905 9522
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 231DEG 22KT 2938 9575
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BaileySpecial weather statement, May 23, 4:14 AM CST, 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
514 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ212-213-226-227-237-238-313-231045-
Inland Brazoria TX-Waller TX-Wharton TX-Coastal Harris TX-
Inland Galveston TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
514 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WHARTON...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON...FORT BEND...NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER AND CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CDT...
At 514 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Town West, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, northern
Friendswood, Rosenberg, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, West
University Place, Katy, Richmond, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Jersey
Village, Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, and Downtown Houston.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2933 9592 2944 9595 2956 9606 3004 9564
2988 9523 2953 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 227DEG 19KT 2967 9563
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BaileySpecial weather statement, May 23, 4:32 AM CST, 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ213-227-237-238-313-337-338-231100-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Harris TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Coastal Galveston TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
Coastal Brazoria TX-
532 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND...CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM CDT...
At 532 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bonney, or 11 miles southwest of Manvel, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Southern Pearland, southwestern League City, Friendswood, Alvin,
Angleton, Santa Fe, Webster, Hitchcock, Manvel, Clear Lake,
southeastern South Belt / Ellington, Danbury, Arcola, Iowa Colony,
Holiday Lakes, Hillcrest, northern Bailey's Prairie, Liverpool,
Bonney, and Brazos Bend State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2916 9573 2940 9576 2960 9513 2916 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 261DEG 26KT 2936 9551
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BaileySpecial weather statement, May 23, 4:44 AM CST, 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ178-199-200-213-214-227-237-238-300-313-338-231115-
San Jacinto TX-Inland Brazoria TX-Northern Liberty TX-Chambers TX-
Coastal Harris TX-Inland Galveston TX-Coastal Galveston TX-
Inland Harris TX-Southern Liberty TX-Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
544 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL SAN
JACINTO...NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...WESTERN
LIBERTY AND HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM CDT...
At 544 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Spring to Pecan Park to near Holiday
Lakes. Movement was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Sugar Land, Baytown, Missouri City,
Texas City, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, southeastern Rosenberg,
Alvin, Dickinson, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, Humble, West
University Place, Seabrook, and Galena Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3041 9503 2967 9467 2945 9496 2944 9571
2966 9572 3008 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 1044Z 253DEG 31KT 3008 9531 2971 9529 2919 9548
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
Bailey