A shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft allowed thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon of the 23rd. Storms developed first off the higher terrain and spread northeastward into the Permian Basin of west Texas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft allowed thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon of the 23rd. Storms developed first off the higher terrain and spread northeastward into the Permian Basin of west Texas. A few storms managed to produce large hail, along with some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 11:26 AM CST, 1 hour earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in store this afternoon and early evening. A storm or two may become strong to severe across the northern Permian Basin, posing a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding. - Daily afternoon/evening shower/storm chances with locally heavy rainfall and risk of flooding in low-lying and poor drainage regions through this weekend into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Current radar imagery shows lingering showers and storms extending from the southern Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos. This is thanks to an outflow boundary positioned over portions of far southeast New Mexico and Permian Basin. Expect these showers and storms to continue into the early morning hours and move east of the area. Today, southwest flow aloft, broad surface low pressure extending from the southern Rockies to far West Texas, and a surface boundary just north of the region will bring increased rain/storm chances (10- 40%) across much of the region. A storm or two may become strong to severe over portions of the northern Permian Basin this afternoon and early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient wind shear, and plenty of instability will pose a large hail and damaging wind threat for any strong storms that develop. Persistent heavy rainfall from training cells may lead to localized flash flooding as well. Tonight, a subtle upper-level ridge begins to build over the region. Lows are forecast to span in the 50s to mid 60s for most areas. Sunday, the aforementioned upper-level ridge supplies much drier conditions across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A low (10- 20%) chance for isolated storms exist over the Davis Mountains during the afternoon, thanks to upslope flow. Severe storms are not expected, though cannot rule out a damaging wind threat with the strongest storm. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s across most locations during Memorial Day weekend. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026 An unsettled weather pattern from the end of this weekend into the middle of the week will be followed by a return to ridging and warmer temperatures. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s F and lows in the 50s to 60s F, 70s F along the Rio Grande can be expected to begin next week, with daily 25% to 35% shower/storm chances over northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin, and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County and Lower Trans Pecos, with a few tenths of inch rainfall in heaviest storms. Humid, southeast upslope winds, up to 20 to 25 mph over western higher terrain during the afternoon, will persist as a diffuse dryline oscillates over W TX into SE NM, separating more humid air to the east (characterized by dew point temperatures in the mid 40s F to lower 60s F), and drier air to the west (characterized by dew point temperatures in the mid 20s F to lower 40s F). A closed mid to upper trough is still expected to influence the forecast area from Monday afternoon into Wednesday next week, with cooler air aloft coupled with daytime heating resulting in instability conducive to 45% to 65% shower/storm chances Monday evening for the SE NM plains into Presidio Valley, and 55% to 70% shower/storm chances Tuesday afternoon/evening along and northeast of the Guadalupes into Davis Mountains and Lower Trans Pecos. Not only will this keep highs down in the 80s F for most of the area, but it will result in widespread rainfall at least 0.25" to 0.50", with eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau having a 25% to 45% chance of rainfall amounts up to 1" in heaviest storms. Some risk for damaging winds and hail in the strongest storms may be present, but the primary risk with any stronger storms will be flooding in low-lying and poor drainage regions. Temperatures increase back into the mid 80s F to lower 90s F Wednesday and into the upper 80s F to mid 90s F by the end of next week as upper ridging builds back in and larger scale sinking and warming motion suppresses cloud and shower/storm development such that only a stray (5% to 15%) chance of daytime showers/storms remains over northern and eastern parts of the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 VFR conditions and generally light southerly to southeasterly winds prevail through the period. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across eastern and southern portions of the area. PROB30s for TS have been maintained at MAF and FST, and have been introduced at HOB as well for this afternoon. Guidance continues to indicate gusty winds will briefly develop at all terminals this evening before becoming light again overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 88 61 87 62 / 30 20 0 0 Carlsbad 93 60 94 62 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 90 64 89 65 / 40 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 90 61 91 62 / 30 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 83 60 85 62 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 91 57 90 58 / 20 10 20 10 Marfa 84 51 87 51 / 20 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 62 87 63 / 30 10 0 0 Odessa 89 62 87 63 / 30 10 0 0 Wink 93 62 92 63 / 20 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...13
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ276-281-231745-
Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
1216 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...
At 1216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northeast of Big Bend Ranch State Park. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Casa Piedra.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2968 10412 2997 10415 3000 10381 2999 10380
2973 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 072DEG 3KT 2984 10397
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
21Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ277-278-231830-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-Davis Mountains TX-
1242 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...
At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Alpine, moving east at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Alpine.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3053 10340 3033 10331 3030 10339 3028 10363
3042 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 247DEG 5KT 3039 10352
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
13Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
TXZ276-281-231830-
Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
1245 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...
At 1245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles northeast of Big Bend Ranch State Park, moving northeast at 10
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Casa Piedra.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2970 10397 2974 10410 3002 10405 2994 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 203DEG 9KT 2983 10399
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
21The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 223 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:24 UTC.
7 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A public report was received via mPING of penny-sized hail near Alpine. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
A member of the public sent a report of quarter-sized hail south of Midland near TX 349. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
A trained spotter reported golf ball-sized hail from about 2 SW of Stanton. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
NWS Employee reported penny-sized hail near Moonlight Road and Partridge Street on the northeast side of Midland. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
A member of the public sent a report of quarter-sized hail in Stanton. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
A public report was received via an mPING of street/road flooding near Wadley Ave and State Highway 158. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar. No damage was reported.
A public report was received via an mPING of penny-sized hail west of Luther. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
Delayed public report of ping-pong ball sized hail in Gail. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327371, 1327373, 1327376, 1327400, 1327403, 1327406, 1327410, 1330091.