NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 2:02 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, May 23, 2:02 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
302 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Numerous Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms through Around
Midnight Ton, with Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible.
Where: Interior Southeast GA and Locations Between the I-75
and I-95 Corridors in Northeast and North Central FL. Main
Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes,
and Localized Flooding at Urban and Normally Flood Prone
Locations Possible.
- High Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL
Beaches. Moderate Risk for Southeast GA Beaches.
- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Each Afternoon & Evening
from Sunday through Next Week.
- Daily Heat Index 95 - 105 F During the Next Several Days.
- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Numerous Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms through Around
Midnight Ton, with Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible.
Where: Interior Southeast GA and Locations Between the I-75
and I-95 Corridors in Northeast and North Central FL. Main
Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes,
and Localized Flooding at Urban and Normally Flood Prone
Locations Possible.
- High Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL
Beaches. Moderate Risk for Southeast GA Beaches.
Afternoon surface analysis depicts a wavy, stationary frontal
boundary wedging down the spine of the southern Appalachians,
as well as across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi
Valleys. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1035 millibars)
positioned over coastal New England, while Atlantic high
pressure (1027 millibars) centered near Bermuda continues to
extend its axis southwestward across our region to the south of
this stationary boundary. Aloft...deep-layered Atlantic ridging
has been nudged just enough eastward by troughing over southern
Canada and the northern Plains states to create a gradually
deepening southwesterly flow above 600 millibars (around 15,000
feet) per the 18Z sounding at Jacksonville, with prevailing
light southerly winds below 600 millibars.
Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates moistening area-wide in the prevailing south to
southwesterly flow pattern, with PWATs mostly in the 1.75 - 2
inch range now in place. Widespread convection earlier this
morning along the FL Big Bend / Nature Coast decayed as it
pushed inland towards I-75, leaving behind a cirrostratus canopy
across most of our area that continues to gradually thin out.
Convection developed rather quickly and increased in coverage
and intensity for locations west and north of Waycross thus far
this afternoon, while widely scattered showers were developing
elsewhere. Temperatures were generally in the 80s to around 90
as of 19Z, while dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Abundant tropical moisture and thinning debris clouds from
convection earlier this morning along the FL Big Bend and Nature
Coast should lead to an expanding coverage of showers and a few
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. We
expect that higher coverage of convection will shift from
locations west and north of Waycross to areas along the U.S.
Highway 301 and I- 95 corridors during the mid to late afternoon
hours, with mesoscale boundaries such as the Atlantic sea
breeze then shifting coverage further inland across southeast GA
and the Interstate 75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and north
central FL during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Southwesterly flow may advect enough shortwave energy across our
area later today to keep numerous showers and thunderstorms
ongoing this evening, with some convective debris showers
possibly being steered back towards the U.S.-301 and I-95
corridors before midnight.
Colliding mesoscale boundaries will have an unstable and moist
environment to feed off of, with ML CAPE values rising to 1,500
- 2,000 j/kg this afternoon, likely resulting in a few storms
pulsing to strong to possibly severe levels. The main hazards
with these pulsing strong to severe storms will be downburst
winds of 40-60 mph, accompanied by frequent lightning strikes
and locally heavy downpours. Slower moving or back-building
storms could present a localized flood risk, mainly for urban or
low-lying, normally flood prone locations. Highs this afternoon
will climb to the upper 80s and lower 90s before convective
coverage increases, with max heat index values of 95-100
expected. Cloud cover will be slow to thin out after midnight,
keeping lows in the 70-75 degree range at most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Isolated Strong Storms Possible Inland Sunday
Afternoon/Evening.
- Hot and humid conditions conditions.
Sunday, the region will be between a closed mid/upper level
trough to the west over TX and mid/upper level ridging near
Bermuda to the ENE with prevailing SW flow above 10,000ft into
the mid levels. low level flow around a Bermuda high pressure
ridge axis extending WSW across north central FL will be from
the SSE to start the day and shift more southeasterly into the
afternoon as the ridge axis lifts into northern FL. Partly
cloudy skies early with light SSE winds 4-8 mph will become
breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph along the coast.
Precipitable Water levels in the 1.8-2.0 inches due to the SW
flow aloft will allow diurnal cumulus clouds in the morning to
tower and grow as the Atlantic/river/lake breezes develop and
turn breezy at the coast 12-18 mph with gusts to 25 mph and
10-15 mph along I-95 into the St Johns river and 5-10 mph well
inland as the Atlantic seabreeze presses inland with light south
to southwest winds behind the Gulf seabreeze shifting across the
Suwannee River towards I-75 in the late afternoon.
Strong diurnal heating and lift along the developing and inland
moving river/lake/seabreezes will produce scattered showers and
T'storms during the late morning/midday hours, then become
numerous as shortwave energy passes over the area downstream of
the closed mid level trough. The Gulf seabreeze will shift
inland and merge with the Atlantic seabreeze near I-75 in the
late afternoon hours, allowing numerous T'storms to continue
into sunset before ending by 10PM with scattered showers
persisting into midnight under thinning debris clouds.
While 0-6 km shear will be light, mainly at or below 20 knots,
high moisture content, strong heating and somewhat steep mid
level lapse rates 6.0-6.5 C/km will support isolated strong
T'storms with gusty downburst winds the primary hazard threat
for winds up to 40-55 mph, along with frequent lightning. Slow
storm motions will also support a threat for localized minor
flooding due to very heavy rainfall rates as indicated by 12Z
HREF neighborhood probabilities of at least 3 inches of rain
Sunday afternoon over 50 percent along and west of highway 301
from Santa Fe river north to US-82 in SE GA. Overall, most
locations in the area will receive at least 0.25-0.75 inches
Sunday afternoon and evening with a few isolated spots.
Showers and T'storm coverage will keep highs Sunday near normal
over SE GA and into the I-10 corridor and along the coast with
mid to upper 80s and slightly above normal with low 90s
southward into north central FL. Mid and high level cloud will
gradually thin overnight.
Monday, Bermuda ridge axis lifts northward into SE GA with flow
in the low levels from the SE as ridging aloft to the ENE
shifts more east of the region. A slight increase in the local
pressure gradient will bring breezier ESE winds along the coast
behind the dominant Atlantic seabreeze 15-20 mph with gusts
25-30 mph at the beaches, but decreasing to 10-15 mph west of
I-95 and 5-10 mph over inland NE FL and SE GA west of highway
301. Slightly drier air (PWATS 1.6-1.9) and absent shortwave
energy over the area due to ridging aloft to the east deflect it
NW of the area will lead to less overall coverage of T'storms,
scattered over NE FL and the coast, but more scattered to
numerous over the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and inland SE GA
where PWATs will be closer to 1.8-2.0 inches.
Highs will be above normal, rising into the lower 90s for NE FL
and SE GA areas south of Waycross, with near normal highs in
the mid to upper 80s northward to the Altamaha river basin due
to more showers and T'storm coverage and also along the coast
due to the elevated onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- Hot temperatures Tuesday.
- Chances of showers and storms each day increasing in coverage
later in the week.
Tuesday high pressure ridging aloft will shift SW away from
Bermuda across the Atlantic waters to our east. This shift
will help deflect shortwave energy to the NW with low level
southeasterly flow and mid level southerly flow. The result will
be Seabreeze pattern of inland moving Atlantic/Gulf seabreezes
yielding scattered afternoon T'storms ending in the evening with
higher coverage over SE GA areas north of US-82 where high
moisture levels will be.
Scattered showers and T'storm coverage increases to more
scattered to numerous coverage Thursday, then numerous by
Friday as Bermuda high pressure retreats to the southeast and an
upper low feature lifts northward from the southern
Gulf/western Cuba into the FL peninsula into the start of next
weekend. A threat for gusty wet downburst winds 40-50 mph,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall rates leading to
localized minor flooding concerns will be present each day
through the period.
Highs will be above normal Tuesday in the low 90s with isolated
mid 90s south of I-10 and decrease to near normal Wednesday
and Thursday with upper 80s to near 90, then near to slightly
below normal Friday into next Saturday with highs in the 80s.
Lows will be above normal in the upper 60s over SE GA and low
70s over NE FL with mid 70s at the coast during the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
MVFR ceilings around 3,000 feet will continue through around 19Z
at SGJ. Showers and thunderstorms may begin developing towards
20Z along and west of the I-95 corridor, with activity then
potentially expanding westward across the U.S. Highway 301 and
Interstate 75 corridors after 22Z. TEMPO groups for brief
surface wind gusts up to 30 knots, along with IFR visibilities
during heavier downpours at JAX, VQQ, and GNV, with activity
potentially extending past 02Z at these TAF sites. Confidence in
thunderstorm impacts remains somewhat lower at CRG, SGJ, and
SSI. PROB30 groups for briefly wind gusts up to 30 knots, along
with MVFR visibilities during heavier downpours, were used at
the CRG and SGJ terminals through around 04Z Sunday. Confidence
was only high enough for vicinity shower coverage this afternoon
and evening at SSI, as thunderstorm activity may cluster over
inland portions of southeast GA during the late afternoon and
evening hours.
IFR to LIFR visibilities are likely after 06Z tonight at VQQ,
with periods of MVFR visibilities possible at the rest of the
northeast FL terminals after 06Z. VFR conditions should then
prevail at the regional terminals by 13Z Sunday, with periods of
MVFR ceilings around 1,500 - 2,000 feet possible after 15Z at
SGJ. Southeasterly surface winds will increase to 10-15 knots at
the regional terminals this afternoon away from developing
convection. Speeds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots through
around 04Z tonight at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals as
surface winds veer to a south-sourheasterly direction, with
speeds elsewhere diminishing to around 5 knots or less by 05Z.
Southerly surface winds will then increase to around 10 knots at
the inland terminals by 15Z Sunday, while surface winds likely
shift to southeasterly at 10-15 knots before 17Z at the coastal
terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
A stationary frontal boundary located to the north and northwest
of our local waters will lift northward as a warm front on
Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile, Atlantic high pressure
centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis
southwestward across our local waters through early next week,
maintaining a prevailing south to southeasterly wind flow, with
southeasterly wind surges during the late afternoon and evening
hours increasing speeds to Caution levels for the northeast
Florida waters. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible through Sunday across our local waters, with
activity then becoming more isolated on Memorial Day and
Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will then shift southward during
the mid to late portions of next week, with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms across our area as prevailing
winds become southerly.
Rip Currents:
A longer period (9-10 second) east-southeasterly ocean swell and
slightly elevated surf conditions, featuring breakers of 2-4
feet, will combine with strengthening onshore winds behind the
inland moving sea breeze to create a high risk of rip currents
at the northeast FL beaches this afternoon. Lower surf heights,
featuring breakers around 2 feet, will keep a higher end
moderate risk at the southeast GA beaches this afternoon.
Similar conditions are expected on Sunday and Memorial Day, with
an elevated risk (likely high) expected at all area beaches due
to breezy onshore winds combining with a persistent ocean swell
and slightly elevated surf conditions to increase the risk,
especially during the late afternoon and early evening hours on
both days.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
- Isolated Strong To Severe Storms Possible through this
Evening.
- Patchy High Dispersions Monday And Tuesday.
Numerous showers and storms this weekend will limit afternoon
dispersions into the fair to good range. Sea breeze thunderstorm
pattern with Bermuda high pressure extending over the area is in
place this weekend with added instability aloft developing
numerous showers and thunderstorms that will continue into the
evening hours as the sea breezes shift inland and merge. In the
south-southeast flow, the sea breeze merger will likely be
between the I-75 and US 301 corridors in the late afternoon into
early evening today and Sunday. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are also possible into early this evening
especially across inland Southeast Georgia Georgia. Potential
hazards still expected to be damaging wind gusts, heavy
downpours, localized flooding, and frequent lightning this
afternoon and early evening.
As Bermuda high pressure shifts closer to the region from the
Atlantic, some drier air aloft will move in early next week
leading to lower T'storm coverage to scattered for most of the
area except over portions of Southeast Georgia north of US-82.
Elevated mixing heights and slightly increasing transport winds
early next week will lead to good to patchy high dispersions
Monday and Tuesday.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
into this weekend. Erratic winds during periods of
thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
While record highs are not anticipated over the next several
days despite the upward trend, the very mild low temperatures
(lower to mid 70s) may result in some record warm minimums at
Jacksonville, Craig Airport, and Gainesville. This pattern
starts today and continues into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 86 68 87 / 80 70 50 80
SSI 75 87 76 87 / 50 50 30 30
JAX 73 89 74 90 / 50 60 30 50
SGJ 75 89 76 89 / 50 50 20 30
GNV 72 91 72 92 / 70 70 50 50
OCF 72 90 73 90 / 60 70 50 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&