Hail in Ohio, May 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
623 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
In collaboration with surrounding offices and WPC, high temperatures
for Saturday through Tuesday continue to be adjusted down from the
NBM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather is expected this weekend with showers and
thunderstorms occurring across the region. A warm front shifts north
on Sunday providing drier conditions on Monday. The next cold front
approaches the region Tuesday.

2) Above normal temperatures are forecast Sunday through Tuesday
before a cold front moves Wednesday or Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Westerly flow aloft with favorable moisture advection and WAA ahead
of an approaching trough due to a southerly low level jet. This will
lead to shower and thunderstorm development this morning. Forecast
soundings show that this convection will be elevated with a good low
level inversion in place. Moderate instability and favorable elevated
lapse rates >7 deg C/KM may lead to some strong to severe storms.
Analogs point to this potential for hail.

Confidence continues to be high for higher chances for rain, but more
uncertainty develops as we head into this afternoon and evening.
A weak disturbance in the mid- level flow could provide better
forcing for portions of northern Kentucky and southwest/southern Ohio
during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Model solutions
showing moderate CAPE with effective shear of 25-30 kts. The exact
placement of this second round of storms is still uncertain but the
most favored region looks to be along and south of the Ohio River.
Strong to damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.
Trends will be closely monitored during the late afternoon and early
evening for the placement of this second round of thunderstorms.
Also, PWATs increase to 1.3 to 1.5 inches with the highest axis
along and south of the Ohio River. HREF localized probability matched
mean indicating that some swaths of 2 to 3 inches of rainfall are
possible if training occurs. The most favored location for this
locally heavy rain is across northern Kentucky.

The warm front will be the focus for any lingering showers and
thunderstorms into the day on Sunday. After that, the warm front
lifting north will provide a break in the rainfall for Monday ahead
of the next cold front system. Can not rule out isold late afternoon
and evening hours on Monday due to the heat and moisture in the
region.

Confidence is increasing across the models solution with a
cold frontal passage Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperature

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist until a cold
front approaches moves thru the region Wednesday. Sunday through
Tuesday, temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s and into the
lower 90s, especially on Monday. With a slower frontal passage
Tuesday could also remain quite warm. The temperatures on Wednesday
are mitigated by the presence of the front, along with any showers
and thunderstorms.

Cooler temperatures are then forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake
of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the TAF sites
with the first wave of convection between 14Z and 18Z. Have prevailing
showers with tempo or prob30 for TSRA at times where probability of
thunderstorms is a little higher. Additional shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to develop this aftn into this evening but more
uncertainty exists regarding specific location. The most favored
location for this second round looks to be across the southern TAF
sites where a mention of thunder continues in the forecast until 03Z.

Clouds look to remain prevailing VFR with brief periods of MVFR
possible during storms thru the day. There is a signal for lower
ceilings developing across the north tonight. Confidence is moderate
with MVFR ceilings developing at KCMH and KLCK tonight. Have included
a period of MVFR ceilings thru 08Z.

Southwest winds will gust to around 25 kts through the day today and
then drop to 10 kts or less tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorm on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
625 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-171030-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
625 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning and a few of the
stronger storms could produce large hail. Additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon into
this evening. A few of the storms - especially along and south of
the Ohio River could become strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the main threats. Heavy rain and localized flooding
is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
805 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ073>075-161245-
Ripley IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-
805 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO...RIPLEY AND
WESTERN DEARBORN COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EDT...

At 805 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Vernon, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and
         very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Lightning can
         cause serious injury or death. Visibility will be poor and
         hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Aurora, Versailles, Milan, Osgood, Dillsboro, Moores
Hill, Wilmington, Manchester, Sunman, Hartford, Holton, Napoleon,
Millhousen, Rexville, Cold Springs, Penntown, Farmers Retreat,
Friendship, and Versailles Lake.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 152 and 159.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 8544 3929 8525 3931 8505 3893 8488
      3893 8520 3892 8520 3892 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 1205Z 260DEG 44KT 3904 8553

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<35 MPH

Campbell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
809 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

OHZ042-161245-
Darke OH-
809 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL DARKE COUNTY
THROUGH 845 AM EDT...

At 809 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fountain City,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Versailles, Bradford, Ansonia, Webster, Wayne Lakes,
Gettysburg, Osgood, Palestine, Yorkshire, Union Corners, Darke County
Airport, Sharpeye, Brock, State Route 47 at US Route 127,
Abbottsville, Sharps Crossing, Horatio, and Pikeville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 8443 4006 8443 4001 8481 4016 8481
      4035 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1209Z 255DEG 31KT 4002 8502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<35 MPH

Campbell