Rip Current in North Carolina, May 16 to 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
632 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential exists through the weekend for minor coastal flooding
during the evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at
the beaches due to the new moon today.

2) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through
the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential exists through the weekend for minor
coastal flooding during the evening high tides along the Lower Cape
Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon today.

Water levels along the Lower Cape Fear River near downtown
Wilmington and at the beaches should reach above minor coastal
flooding thresholds within a couple hours either side of the time of
the evening high tides through the weekend. At the beaches, high
tide occurs around 8 pm this evening and 9 pm Sunday evening. Along
the Lower Cape Fear River, high tide takes place around 10 pm this
evening and 11 pm Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The threat for hazardous weather remains very
low through the end of next week.

Gradually strengthening mid-level ridge into the middle of next
week will result in an extended period of temperatures above
normal. Low level moisture will remain limited, keeping heat
indices reasonable. Late in the week a shallow 5h trough
crossing the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into the
Southeast. Not much forcing with the front, but there is
moisture, helping increase rain chances later Thu but more
likely on Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence exists in VFR prevailing through most of the
period as the column remains dry other than some passing patches
of cirrus from time to time. Light southerly winds will
pick up out of S to SW by mid morning. SSE winds expected by
afternoon Saturday along coastal terminals as the sea breeze
develops and produces a slight backing and some higher gusts.
Fog chances remain very low early this morning but as low level
moisture begins to increase tonight, potential for fog will
exist. For now included in FLO but confidence remains low.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. Early
morning fog becomes possible from Sunday morning onward as low
level moisture increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...
Bermuda High pressure will dominate with a persistent southerly
return flow setting up, remaining around 10 kts or so through
today. Winds will back slightly and spike up with some higher
gusts in the afternoon sea breeze near shore. Southeasterly 7 to
8 sec swells are expected to decrease somewhat through today
with overall seas 3 ft or less.

Sunday through Wednesday...
Bermuda High will maintain southerly flow across the waters
through the middle of next week. Along the coast afternoon and
evening speed increases can be expected due to heating, but
speeds will remain under 15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/RGZ