Flash Flood in North Carolina, June 8, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 PM Monday...

1) Except for Tuesday, highs are expected to be in the 90s
everywhere for the next week, bringing danger to those who lack
adequate cooling.

2) Diurnally-driven thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
next seven days, with the lowest chances on Thursday and the
greatest chances on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Except for Tuesday, highs are expected to be in the
90s everywhere for the next week, bringing danger to those who lack
adequate cooling.

Tonight will be the coolest night out of the next seven, with lows
ranging from the mid 50s in the northeast to 70 in the southwest.
Similarly, Tuesday will be the coolest day out of the next seven.
The Triad will be on the cool side of the front, so highs will be in
the mid 80s, while locations to the east should generally be around
90 degrees.

After the surface high pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast on
Tuesday, warm and moist southerly flow will return to the region as
ridging will start to build to the west. This will allow
temperatures to rise generally into the low-to-mid 90s on Wednesday
and increase further in to the mid-to-upper 90s on Thursday and the
upper 90s on Friday. The probability of high temperatures reaching
or exceeding 100 degrees on Friday is between 10-30% for the
majority of the US-1 corridor and east. The experimental HeatRisk is
showing the majority of central NC under a Moderate to Major risk of
heat-related impacts from Wednesday through at least Sunday, with a
few locations showing an Extreme risk of heat-related impacts on
Friday and Saturday. This will also be made worse by above normal
temperatures overnight. Lows look to remain in the low-to-mid 70s
each night, allowing for little relief from daytime temperatures.
However, the chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may also provide some relief from the hot afternoon
temperatures each day.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally-driven thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the next seven days, with the lowest chances on Thursday
and the greatest chances on Saturday.

A back door cold front is currently oriented from northwest to
southeast across the forecast area. While the front has moved across
the area today, it will take its time drifting to the southwest
through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. The front should
serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop, with the
precipitation expected south and west of the Triangle. While RAP
SBCAPE will range from 1000 to 3000 J/kg, a lack of wind shear will
limit the potential for severe thunderstorms. However, DCAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg could allow from strong winds. By sunset, a
slight chance of showers will continue west of I-74, but conditions
should dry out by midnight. The front will move little Tuesday and
Tuesday night, and rainfall will generally remain west of the
Triangle, with showers/storms likely in the Triad.

The warm/moist airmass will remain overhead from mid-week through
the weekend. A daily pattern of isolated to scattered diurnally
induced showers and embedded thunderstorms looks to return to the
region Wednesday through the weekend. The typical summer-like
pattern is currently low predictability in exactly where showers may
develop each afternoon. However, rainfall amounts look to be
relatively light, with the 50th percentile of the LREF showing less
than 0.1 inch of rain each day through Friday. This weekend, forcing
will increase slightly as a front looks to fall apart as it
approaches the area which may allow for slightly higher rainfall
totals and potentially more organized storms. The LREF is showing up
to 0.25 inch of rain on Saturday and an additional 0.1 inch on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

TAF period: Much of the TAF period should have VFR conditions at all
terminals. A front has moved into the area from the north, and while
it will not do much to cool temperatures, it will serve as a
boundary for scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
Maintained the inherited PROB30 groups for MVFR TSRA at INT, GSO,
and FAY where the greatest coverage is expected - no showers/storms
are expected at RDU and RWI. Cumulus is increasing this afternoon,
and should become more of a mid level stratus deck overnight.
Confidence is increasing that INT/GSO will have MVFR ceiling
restrictions late tonight, with a good chance of IFR ceilings even
possible, but with models showing a tighter moisture gradient,
removed the MVFR TEMPO groups at RDU and RWI, and just going with
high MVFR at FAY. Wind will primarily be out of the east this
afternoon and tonight, eventually veering to the southeast Tuesday
morning. Gusts up to 20 kt will be possible this afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally driven thunderstorms will be in the forecast
through Saturday. Coverage will be the greatest at INT/GSO on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with overall coverage decreasing Thursday and
Friday before increasing again on Saturday. It appears likely that
all sites will drop to MVFR in restrictions late Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning, but after that, restrictions will likely be
linked to locations where rainfall occurs.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 8: KFAY: 101/2008

June 10: KFAY: 99/2008

June 11: KGSO: 98/1914   KRDU: 100/1914   KFAY: 102/1926

June 12: KRDU: 98/2002   KFAY: 99/1926

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002   KFAY: 99/2022

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926   KRDU: 97/1944   KFAY: 100/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 9: KGSO: 72/2020

June 10: KRDU: 76/2020   KFAY: 77/2020

June 11: KGSO: 74/2008   KRDU: 74/2008   KFAY: 77/1981

June 12: KGSO: 72/1998   KRDU: 75/1986   KFAY: 76/2016

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015   KRDU: 75/2025   KFAY: 77/1998

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025   KRDU: 79/2022   KFAY: 77/2022

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Green/Helock
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE..RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
404 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-090930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
404 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another wave of dangerously hot temperatures is expected from mid
week into the weekend, with the hottest weather on Thursday and
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
356 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

NCZ086-082045-
Hoke NC-
356 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HOKE COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of
Aberdeen to near Raeford. Movement was southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raeford, Antioch, Silver City, and Rockfish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 7938 3512 7922 3495 7904 3485 7917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 032DEG 6KT 3506 7930 3495 7915

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
419 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

NCZ086-088-082045-
Hoke NC-Cumberland NC-
419 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CUMBERLAND AND EAST
CENTRAL HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Raeford, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rockfish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 7919 3513 7911 3503 7894 3495 7903
      3495 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 032DEG 6KT 3502 7909

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
440 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

NCZ074-082115-
Montgomery NC-
440 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 439 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Troy and Lake Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 8009 3547 7987 3529 7976 3522 7995
      3535 8007 3536 8007 3537 8005 3538 8005
      3540 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 155DEG 17KT 3532 7992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
442 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

NCZ075-082115-
Moore NC-
442 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MOORE COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Carthage, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carthage, Whispering Pines, Robbins, and Seven Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 7933 3527 7933 3525 7960 3543 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 090DEG 5KT 3533 7942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
527 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

NCZ038-082215-
Davidson NC-
527 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM EDT...

At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Linwood, or 8 miles west of Lexington, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Linwood, High Rock Lake Marina & Campground, High Rock
Lake, and High Rock Boat Dock Marina.

This includes Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 83 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8048 3583 8046 3584 8045 3583 8043
      3585 8042 3584 8039 3586 8039 3588 8042
      3588 8041 3582 8018 3565 8018 3565 8030
      3568 8033 3572 8033 3572 8038 3574 8046
      3577 8045 3579 8048 3581 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 096DEG 8KT 3578 8040

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
537 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

NCZ038-039-074-082230-
Randolph NC-Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-
537 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES THROUGH
630 PM EDT...

At 537 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Badin Lake, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Badin Lake, Newsom, Pinehaven Marina, Eldorado, Fish Tales Marina,
Whip-O-Will Campground, and Morrow Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8000 3545 7990 3538 8006 3540 8009
      3542 8009 3543 8010 3544 8010 3545 8011
      3546 8011 3547 8014 3547 8016 3549 8018
      3552 8018 3554 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 150DEG 6KT 3549 8002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS