Tornado and Flash Flood in Kansas, June 8 to 9, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and
  evening across much of the area.

- Much warmer conditions and continued chances for storms
  Tuesday through Thursday with an active weather pattern
  expected to linger into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

An unstable airmass is expected to materialize this afternoon with
low level convergent flow on the northern periphery of the sfc
trough along a warm frontal boundary over west central KS. Very
moist easterly flow on the Central High Plains in convergent flow
north of the sfc trough will result in scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Other more isolated activity could
develop along a sharpening dryline late in the afternoon/early
evening but confidence in storms here remains low. Any discrete
storms developing in this airmass will be capable of becoming
supercellular with all modes of severe weather possible. The
most likely scenario will be a complex of storms propagating ESE
off the Central High Plains early this evening bringing the
potential for damaging winds and large hail. We continue to see
very high PWATS over 1.75 inches progged this evening in central
KS with deep warm cloud depths supporting efficient rainfall
rates. The nocturnal LLJ is progged to nose into central KS
this evening supporting a forward propagating MCS. As you move
southward toward south central KS we begin to see much warmer H7
temperatures likely providing a capping inversion with a sharp
cutoff in more robust convection or a strong diurnal component
to any isolated late afternoon storms.

Another hot and humid day is anticipated on Tue with a heat advisory
now in effect for southeast KS although much of the area may
approach heat advisory criteria assuming clouds mix out in time and
we see some insolation. A shortwave trough moving towards the
Central High Plains late in the period should allow for another
round of deep moist convection rolling eastward during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Unlike today, veered low level flow
on the High Plains will allow for a more deeply mixed pbl with some
damaging winds likely with any storm activity that manages to build
eastward in our central KS counties.

Wed-Thu...A frontal boundary is progged to bisect the area through
the period providing a focus for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Sufficient deep layer shear/steep mid-level lapse
rates could support some severe storms both days.

The frontal boundary may move south of the area on Friday with more
stable air in it's wake but confidence in the details remains low at
this time. Another shortwave trough is progged to arrive over the
weekend keeping a chance of showers and storms in the forecast
through much of the period but also ushering in some cooler air on
Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Storms are expected to march southeast across central Kansas
this evening with some severe weather likely. A line of storms
is expected and could produce over 50kt damaging wind gusts
which could impact RSL and SLN sites. It's possible the line of
storms makes it to HUT/ICT, at the moment we have PROB30 for
this potential. Otherwise once the storms shift east of Kansas
tonight southerly winds will be on the increase during the day
on Tuesday. South wind gusts over 30kts are expected for
central/south central KS sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ033-049-052-053.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-068-082-
083-091>093.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
728 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
728 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will impact central Kansas and parts of south central
Kansas through the late evening hours. Primary risk will be large
hail around quarter size and damaging to significant damaging winds
of 70 to 90 mph possible. In addition, locally heavy rain may lead
to flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat indices between 100 and 105 are possible both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons, especially across southern and southeast
Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances return each afternoon and evening for
Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict