Excessive Heat and Heat in Oklahoma, June 8 to 11, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Hot & muggy conditions this upcoming week with heat indices near
  to above triple digits each day.

- Our first Heat Advisory for the season will be in effect Monday
  afternoon across parts of northern Oklahoma with heat indices
  there exceeding 105 degrees.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Monday across
  northwest Oklahoma.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Heat:
Expanded the Heat Advisory to include the Ponca City-Stillwater-
Guthrie areas based on the calculated heat index values expected
this afternoon. NBM is very aggressive with dewpoints this
afternoon exceeding almost all available model inputs. Granted
dewpoints will be high with evapotranspiration after recent
rainfall, but still expect a little mixing out during the heat of
the afternoon so nudged the forecast dewpoints down a bit. Even
with this, the calculated max heat index grids gave 105 across
most of the previously issued Heat Advisory area as well as areas
immediately to the east.

Storms:
Scattered thunderstorms are developing this morning across
northeast Oklahoma. While some of these storms may brush the
eastern edge of our forecast area, these storms will primarily be
east of our area this morning. Still have some low POPs this
morning on the northeastern and eastern fringe of the forecast
area.

Many models suggest we will see isolated to scattered storms
develop along a weak surface front across northwest Oklahoma late
this afternoon. Forecast sounding in this area show an inverted-V
type sounding which makes sense given how warm temperatures are
expected today, and associated with this, forecast downdraft CAPE
is also quite high. Any strong storm that develops will have the
potential to become severe with strong winds that primary threat,
although some hail can not be completely ruled out either.
Additional storms progged to develop near the surface low in
central Kansas this afternoon are expected to move southeast.
Most of these storms are expected to remain northeast of the area,
but there is at least some potential for these to move into north
central Oklahoma before dissipating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

And thunderstorms that develop this afternoon as described in the
"near term" section are expected to diminish this evening with
diurnal stabilization.

500 mb heights lower a little bit Tuesday with an upper trough
developing in the western United States. This may take the edge
off the temperatures in the western part of the forecast area, but
it will still be hot. Heat index values are expected to be at
least in the upper 90s across most of the area, with the potential
of pushing 105 again in the wheat belt of northern Oklahoma.

As this upper trough moved into the central Plains on Wednesday,
some models suggest storm development along a surface boundary
across northwest Oklahoma into Kansas, but there is not a
consensus in the models on this development. But it will be
another hot day with the heat index values climbing into the
triple digits across much of the area again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The trend in the medium-range models has been to keep stronger
zonal flow over the area as a broad trough slowly moves east
across Canada and the United States late this week. While
temperatures will remain very warm, they may not be quite as hot
late in the week as early this week. Precipitation chances
increase Thursday night as the main trough axis moves over the
Plains and a surface front approaches or moves into northern
Oklahoma. Storm chances persist through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered to broken cloud cover continues along an axis near and
east of I-35. Cloud bases have been slowly rising through the
morning and fully VFR conditions are not far away, but don't be
surprised to see a few 3,000 foot BKN ceilings early this
afternoon. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds will abate slightly
this evening with the signal for tomorrow morning suggesting that
low-level stratus will likely remain to our east.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  92  76  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75  96  75  98 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  98  77 102 /  20   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     77  93  77  94 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  91  78  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04