What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 8, 11:46 AM CST, 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- A Flood Watch is posted today and evening for central and southeast IL. A few waves of showers and thunderstorms expected today and could produce locally heavy rain of 2 to 3 inches per hour rates.
- High heat and humidity will build across the region Tuesday through Thursday, driving afternoon heat index values into the upper 90s and lower 100s. More comfortable temperatures and humidity levels are expected by early next week.
- There is a Slight to Enhanced risk of severe storms from the IL river nw Wed night. There is a 15-30% risk of severe storms over central and southeast IL Thu and Thu evening as cold front moves through Thu night.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 8, 11:46 AM CST, 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Flood Watch is posted today and evening for central and
southeast IL. A few waves of showers and thunderstorms
expected today and could produce locally heavy rain of 2 to 3
inches per hour rates.
- High heat and humidity will build across the region Tuesday
through Thursday, driving afternoon heat index values into the
upper 90s and lower 100s. More comfortable temperatures and
humidity levels are expected by early next week.
- There is a Slight to Enhanced risk of severe storms from the
IL river nw Wed night. There is a 15-30% risk of severe storms
over central and southeast IL Thu and Thu evening as cold
front moves through Thu night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
Issued a Flood Watch for central and southeast IL today and
evening. Some bands of showers and thunderstorms to pivot north
and ne across the areas today, with best chances of convection
shifting into east central and southeast IL this evening.
Unseasonably high precipitatable water values will be 2-2.25
inches at times today and evening over the CWA. Thunderstorms
could produce locally heavy rains of 2-3 inches per hour rates
and to be more widespread than the past few days as mid level
trof moves into IL this afternoon. WPC Day1 ERO has slight risk
of excessive rainfall across CWA today/evening with southeast
IL (Terre Haute to Shelbyville south) having a 25% risk of
rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a
point.
A mid level trough over western MO/IA early this morning will
move northeastward today across the mid Mississippi Valley.
Deep tropical moisture continues streaming over IL ahead of
approaching trof with PW of 2-2.25 inches into this evening.
Weak steering flow aloft to also support heavy rain threat. Will
Moderate instability is forecast into southern Illinois this
afternoon along with enough wind shear to support marginal risk
of severe storms from mid afternoon into early evening in
southeast IL. Main severe storm threat is damaging wind gusts
while also a 2% risk of tornadoes from highway 50 south. The RAP
13 Layer Non-supercell tornado parameter has pockets of 1-3
over central IL from mid day into the afternoon. So we will need
to be alert for possibility of a few brief funnels/tornadoes in
tropical air mass. Highs today of 80-85F, warmest near
Lawrenceville with muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Convection chances to become more widely scattered from west to
east during tonight as mid level trof shifts east into Indiana
tonight and instability wanes. Moderate to heavy rains still
possible over east central and especially southeast IL during
early to mid evening. Lows overnight in the upper 60s to around
70F.
Mid level trof continues moving east over the Ohio river valley
on Tue with upper level ridging into IL as 500 mb heights rise
to 588-590 decameters by Tue afternoon over CWA. SPC Day2 has
marginal risk of severe storms over CWA Tue afternoon/early Tue
evening as an unstable air mass lingers over the area with very
warm temperatures in upper 80s to around 90F and moist
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will exists with any storms that can become sustained in
that thermodynamic environment from mid Tue afternoon into early
Tue evening until sunset.
Mid/upper level ridge over IL on Wed and this to keep most of
area dry much of the day Wed along with hot and humid
conditions. Highs Wed in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s to give afternoon heat indices in upper 90s and lower
100s (highest over the IL/MS river valleys). Will see breezier
sw winds on Wed with gusts 20-30 mph especially Wed afternoon
due to tightening pressure gradient.
Per SPC Day3 Outlook for Wed night, they have a slight risk of
severe storms from the IL river nw and enhanced risk over nw
parts of Knox and Stark counties. (Also have a Level 1
intensity of severe nw of the IL river). Here is SPC's
discussion on this severe threat for Day 3 (Wed afternoon/Wed
night)...A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary
layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of
a cold front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will
contribute to moderate to strong instability Wed afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over IA and the lower MO
Valley by mid to late Wed afternoon. The strongest deep layer
shear is forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest,
with decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent
being offset by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter
space will favor organized storm modes including supercells and
bowing structures. Large to very large hail will likely be the
initial hazard, with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes
increasing as storms move into northwest IL, where stronger low
level shear is forecast.
SPC Day4 Outlook has 15-30% risk of severe storms over CWA on
Thu especially Thu aftn/evening. The highest risk is from
Champaign to Litchfield northwest. We will likely be in a
severe risk on Thursday (especially Thu afternoon/evening) as
line of storms pushes se over central and southeast IL into a
very unstable air mass with stronger wind shear present due to
50-70 kt mid level jet streak. Per SPC Day4 discussion...There
is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado
potential could develop along and south of the surface low track
from eastern IA and northern IL. That potential scenario will
be dictated by the location of the effective surface
boundary. High heat and humidity ahead of the storms especially
se half of CWA where highs around 90F to lower 90s and
afternoon heat indices peaking in the upper 90s to near 100F
before the storms move in. Precipitatable water values remain
high on Thu so heavy rains are a threat especially if training
occurs. WPC Day5 ERO has marginal risk of excessive rainfall
across IL on Thu/Thu night.
Quieter weather expected on Friday behind the cold front with
just slight chance of convection southeast of I-70 Fri morning,
with better chances of convection shifting se of CWA. The ECMWF,
GEM and GFS models keep much of area dry Fri through Saturday
though NBM and WPC have 20-40% pops Fri night and Saturday.
Still fairly warm Fri/Sat with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
a bit sticky with dewpoints in the 60s both days. Another cold
front to push into central/se IL around Sunday and to bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sat night and Sunday,
followed by cooler and less humid air early next week (highs
upper 70s/lower 80s Sun/Mon June 14-15).
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day outlook for June
15-21st has a 35-45% chance of below normal temperatures over IL
with 35-40% chance of above normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
Primary band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is now working its
way through KBMI-KMTO, and should reach KCMI within the hour.
Threats are lightning, rain rates in excess of 1" per hour with
IFR or lower visibilities, and some gusty south winds. Another
round of scattered thunderstorms now in western Illinois is
anticipated to affect the TAF sites during the mid to late
afternoon hours. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings are forecast to
develop overnight, primarily east of a line from KPIA-KSPI.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...AAT
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 8, 4:23 AM CST, 7 hours 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
523 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-091100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
523 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Periods of thunderstorms are expected into this evening, though a few
may linger past midnight. While the severe weather threat is low,
rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour may cause localized flash
flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening, and a few may
be strong or briefly severe. However, the better chances for severe
weather will be Wednesday and especially on Thursday. There also
remains a concern for localized flooding.
Hot weather will develop on Tuesday, and peak on Wednesday. Heat
index values over 100 degrees are expected on Tuesday west of I-55,
and over all of central and southeast Illinois on Wednesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
rainfall measurements would be greatly appreciated.
ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-091100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
523 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Periods of thunderstorms are expected into this evening, though a few
may linger past midnight. A few of these may briefly be severe, with
damaging winds the primary concern. However, a few funnel clouds are
also possible. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour may cause
localized flash flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Wednesday, and
a few may be strong or briefly severe. However, the better chances
for severe weather will be Thursday. There also remains a concern
for localized flooding.
Heat index values over 100 degrees are expected on Wednesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed through this evening. Rainfall
measurements would also be greatly appreciated.
Geelhart
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jun 8, 7:19 AM CST, 4 hours 31 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
819 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0815 AM Rain 3 WNW Peoria Heights 40.75N 89.62W
06/08/2026 M1.27 Inch Peoria IL CO-OP Observer
24 hour rainfall total from COOP observer.
&&
RACLocal storm report, Jun 8, 8:09 AM CST, 3 hours 41 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0744 AM Rain 1 SSE West Peoria 40.69N 89.63W
06/08/2026 M1.79 Inch Peoria IL Public
24 hour rainfall report from SWOP observer.
&&
RACSpecial weather statement, Jun 8, 9:26 AM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1026 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
ILZ041>043-048-051>053-081600-
Logan-Sangamon-Mason-Macon-Menard-Christian-De Witt-
1026 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN MENARD...LOGAN...NORTH
CENTRAL CHRISTIAN...NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON...SOUTHWESTERN DE WITT...
EAST CENTRAL MASON AND NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM
CDT...
At 1026 AM CDT, broadcast media reported a strong thunderstorm over
Williamsville, or 9 miles east of Athens, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Broadcast media.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Lincoln, Athens, Sherman, Riverton, Mount Pulaski,
Williamsville, Illiopolis, Greenview, Mechanicsburg, Dawson, Buffalo,
Elkhart, Latham, Middletown, New Holland, Chestnut, Cornland,
Spaulding, and Clear Lake.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 155 between mile markers 0 and 4.
Interstate 55 between mile markers 99 and 131.
Interstate 72 between mile markers 106 and 124.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3969 8933 3996 8986 4028 8958 4007 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 207DEG 29KT 3997 8954
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CoppleSpecial weather statement, Jun 8, 10:22 AM CST, 1 hour 28 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1122 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
ILZ031-037-038-042-081645-
Tazewell-Logan-Woodford-McLean-
1122 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...
SOUTHEASTERN WOODFORD...EASTERN TAZEWELL AND WESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...
At 1122 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Minier, or 15 miles southeast of Morton, moving north at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Normal, Eureka, Washington, Mackinaw, Hudson, Atlanta, Minier,
Danvers, Hopedale, Goodfield, McLean, Deer Creek, Stanford, Carlock,
Congerville, Armington, and Kappa.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 155 between mile markers 13 and 14.
Interstate 39 between mile markers 3 and 12.
Interstate 55 between mile markers 140 and 145, and between mile
markers 162 and 163.
Interstate 74 between mile markers 105 and 128.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4025 8920 4034 8946 4074 8940 4069 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 196DEG 29KT 4044 8928
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KnutsvigLocal storm report, Jun 8, 10:32 AM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1132 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1125 AM Rain 1 E Springfield 39.80N 89.64W
06/08/2026 M3.50 Inch Sangamon IL Public
Rainfall report of rain that has fallen
since 1000AM. Public report relayed by
broadcast media. Rain still falling at time
of report.
&&
RACLocal storm report, Jun 8, 10:59 AM CST, 51 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1158 AM Rain Mount Pulaski 40.01N 89.28W
06/08/2026 M1.30 Inch Logan IL CO-OP Observer
Rainfall report since estimate 1015am. More
rain expected.
&&
RACNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1347761, 1347762, 1347763, 1347764, 1347769, 1347755, 1347756, 1347757, 1347758, 1347791, 1347776, 1347760.