Damaging Winds in New York, June 10, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
237 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued for portions of the Finger Lakes and the
counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat and humidity this week. Warmest heat indices
could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat and humidity this week. Warmest heat
indices could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday.

Increasing heat and humidity will move into our region Thursday and
Friday as a mid and upper level ridge amplifies over the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. 850 mb temperatures will climb to near +18/+19C
and the combination of heat and humidity will support heat index
values in the lower to mid 90s. With this in mind, have gone ahead
and issued a Heat Advisory for Thursday across portions of the
Finger Lakes and the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario
where confidence is medium to high of heat indices reaching the mid
90s.

Though similar conditions will be possible to end the work week,
model consensus continues to struggle with the timing of a strong
cold front poised to cross the area sometime Friday. If the faster
timing comes to fruition, heat headline possibilities would lessen,
especially further west. However, a slowing of the frontal passage
would allow for the same or possibly even more areas to be impacted
by dangerous heat and humidity levels. Stay tuned.

Cooler and more comfortable weather are expected across the region
behind a cold front this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Friday evening.

An anomalously moist airmass will remain in place over the region
through the end of the work week. Axis of a mid level trough driving
the bulk of the convection this afternoon is currently moving
through the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region, thus coverage of
shower activity continues to dwindle west of the Genesee Valley as
subsidence and dryer air builds into western New York in the wake of
the trough. A westerly flow will also stabilize areas east of Lake
Erie, although showers and a few thunderstorms may form along the
convergence of lake breezes south of Lake Ontario later this
afternoon. Sounding profiles continue to indicate an uptick in shear
with an isolated risk of strong/severe storms, mainly across the
Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario along and ahead of the
aforementioned mid level trough through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening. Strong wind gusts are the primary
threat with any stronger storms. Any stronger showers or
thunderstorms will produce heavy rain. There is a non-zero threat of
localized flooding if training storms materialize.

A very moist airmass will remain in place Thursday. Scattered
convection expected during the morning, with heavy downpours as the
primary impact. Impressive instability developing by afternoon will
lead to additional convection, mainly on lake breeze or convergence
boundaries inland from the lakes. However, amplifying ridging aloft
trying to build in from the west aiding already relatively weak
shear profiles in place by Thursday afternoon gives lower confidence
of severe potential.

A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region Friday. A warm,
moist airmass will reside ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
The combination of an increasing wind field and a unstable airmass
will support the potential for strong thunderstorms across the
region with the primary risks being damaging winds and large hail.
There continues to be discrepancies amongst guidance as to the exact
timing of the cold front. This will play a key role in exactly where
the best potential for severe weather will be. An earlier frontal
passage would likely keep most of the strong to severe convection
confined to our eastern areas, while a slower moving front could
place much of western and northcentral NY under a higher severe
weather threat. Another risk from any stronger showers or
thunderstorms will again be heavy rain, as PWAT values are expected
to exceed 1.5", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Drier air is expected to move into the region for the start of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front has lifted north of the region this morning, supporting
a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms to pass east across
the forecast area this morning and continuing through the afternoon.
The current line of showers and embedded thunder are spread across
the Finger Lakes region, and are about to enter into the eastern
Lake Ontario region. This being said there is a conglomeration of
flight conditions this afternoon ranging from MVFR to IFR due to low
ceilings.

Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings will remain through much of the
afternoon as the showers and thunderstorms continue on their
eastward progression. Conditions will gradually improve this
afternoon across western New York and then this evening across
while, IFR/MVFR ceilings will remain across the eastern Lake Ontario
region.

Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
overnight, bringing a return to MVFR ceilings to Western New York.
Expect localized lower flight conditions within any heavier shower
or thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms. Also, lower CIGS possible during the overnights
(Wednesday night and Thursday night) across the higher terrain.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to west flow will remain through Thursday night. Wind
speeds likely remaining 15 knots or less with only the expectation
of some light chop with waves 2 feet or less.

The passage of a cold front Friday could bring a brief uptick to
winds, but headlines are not anticipated.

The passage of several waves of low pressure will generate a few
thunderstorms over the lakes at times through the end of the work
week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001>005-
     013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

NYZ012-019>021-111900-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday and a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging winds and
large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-111900-
Livingston-Ontario-
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Hot and humid conditions are also possible Friday. Heat index values
may reach the mid 90s.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday and a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging winds and
large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-111900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. The primary hazard is strong to severe wind gusts that
could produce locally dangerous high waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Strong to severe wind
gusts could produce locally dangerous high waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-111900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Hot and humid conditions are also possible Friday. Heat index values
may reach the mid 90s.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-010-011-085-111900-
Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Southern Erie-
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hot and humid conditions are possible Friday. Heat index values may
reach the mid 90s across the lower terrain.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-111900-
Jefferson-Lewis-
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-111900-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. The primary hazard is strong to severe wind gusts that
could produce locally dangerous high waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday and a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging winds and
large hail are the primary threats. Strong to severe wind gusts
could produce locally dangerous high waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf