What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 14, 4:16 PM MST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 14, 4:16 PM MST, 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
516 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
- Today will be the region's best chance to see widespread
showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. Some
storms will be severe with hail, gusty winds and heavy rain.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms again Monday.
- Relief from the heat through Monday, but triple digit
temperatures will return midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Active day still looks on schedule. Weak backdoor cool front
pushed through much of the CWA; subtle satellite features show it
out near the Cont Divide at this time where it should become
mostly stationary and mix out. Models shows some minor surface
convergence with it. Feature should also help keep dewpoints in
the upper 40s west and 50s east. Aloft sub-tropical high remains
in place from the Gulf of America to northern Mexico. Short-wave,
possibly near the Four Corners swings down in the northwest flow
along the north margins of the sub-tropical high later today. Also
250mb sub-tropical jet across northern Mexico will have its RRQ
over our area this afternoon. Add in above normal moisture and all
these ingredients add up to scattered thunderstorms for our area.
Diurnal pattern should hold again, with mountain storms
developing by noon, and spreading down to the lowlands after
around 2pm. Several models show somewhat organized line dropping
down to Las Cruces/El Paso area after 5pm, likely associated with
the short-wave. With CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg, and maybe as high as
2000 J/kg late afternoon in the east, along with good speed shear,
should help produce some strong to severe storms. Large hail
(1.0-1.5 inches) is possible along with wind gusts of 45-60 mph.
With PWs approaching 150-200% of normal today, some heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is also possible. All these threats are highest
from a line from Silver City-Deming and east.
Monday will see some drying as the northwest flow aloft pulls in
slightly drier air. PWs drop to .75-1.00 inches and dewpoints
begin dropping into the 40s northwest. Hence POPs lower on Monday
though all areas still will see a chance of storms.
Tuesday through Thursday...main long wave trough over eastern US
splits the sub-tropical ridge in two, with our area under the east
Pacific high and drier air. Thus other than a few mountain and NM
Bootheel storms each afternoon, little or no chance for rain most
other areas. Heat will be the main story, with lowland high temps
rising back to around 100-105 each day.
Friday through Sunday...sub-tropical ridge will reform over the
Gulf of America, Texas, and New Mexico. Low/mid level flow turns
south/southeast Friday and Saturday with moisture returning along
with a chance of thunderstorms. Next Pacific trough with drier
northwest flow is able to impinge into the ridge Sunday and
should scour out most moisture, and with it, any chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The area west of the continental divide will see widespread
thunderstorm development for the next 4 to 6 hours. Storms should
be over by 06Z with lingering light showers. Skies are mostly
BKN070CB OVC200 with 4-6SM with TSRA continuing to develop near
KTCS, KDMN,and KLRU. Storms are moving in the direction of KELP
and could impact the area by 00Z. Some of these storms could
produce large hail and wind gusts of 45-55 knots. Non-
thunderstorm winds east/southeast 10-15 knots east of the Cont
Divide. West of the divide winds are west 10-15 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Not much in the way of fire weather concerns. High min RHs and
scattered thunderstorms expected today and Monday. Min RHs do
lower to near critical Tue-Thu for the lowlands as high temps
creep back up above normal, so elevated conditions possible again
by mid week.
Min RH: Lowlands...20% west-35% east today and Monday, lowering
to 10-15% Tuesday through Thursday. Gila/Black Range...20-30%
today and Monday, lowering to 10-20% Tuesday through Thursday.
Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...40-50% today and Monday, lowering to
15-25% Tuesday through Thursday. Vent rates fair-good today and
Monday, improving to very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 93 72 99 / 60 20 30 0
Sierra Blanca 62 87 62 93 / 40 20 30 0
Las Cruces 64 91 63 97 / 60 30 20 0
Alamogordo 65 90 66 97 / 50 20 10 0
Cloudcroft 48 70 49 75 / 50 30 20 10
Truth or Consequences 67 90 66 97 / 60 40 10 0
Silver City 60 89 60 92 / 30 30 20 0
Deming 64 94 64 99 / 30 20 20 0
Lordsburg 66 96 66 98 / 10 10 10 0
West El Paso Metro 70 91 70 97 / 60 20 30 0
Dell City 63 89 63 95 / 30 30 30 0
Fort Hancock 68 94 69 99 / 60 20 30 0
Loma Linda 63 85 64 90 / 50 30 30 0
Fabens 67 94 68 99 / 50 20 20 0
Santa Teresa 66 90 65 96 / 50 20 30 0
White Sands HQ 71 91 71 97 / 60 20 20 0
Jornada Range 62 90 63 97 / 60 30 10 0
Hatch 65 92 64 99 / 50 50 10 0
Columbus 69 95 69 99 / 50 20 30 0
Orogrande 61 89 63 95 / 50 20 20 0
Mayhill 53 79 55 86 / 50 60 20 20
Mescalero 52 80 54 86 / 40 50 20 0
Timberon 50 76 51 82 / 50 40 30 10
Winston 55 84 56 90 / 30 40 10 0
Hillsboro 63 88 63 94 / 30 50 10 10
Spaceport 59 89 60 96 / 50 40 10 0
Lake Roberts 54 89 54 93 / 20 50 20 0
Hurley 61 91 61 95 / 30 30 20 0
Cliff 60 95 60 98 / 10 30 10 0
Mule Creek 54 91 55 94 / 10 30 10 10
Faywood 62 89 62 94 / 30 50 20 0
Animas 65 95 65 97 / 20 10 10 0
Hachita 64 95 64 98 / 30 10 10 0
Antelope Wells 65 94 64 96 / 40 20 20 10
Cloverdale 63 89 61 91 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 14, 3:10 PM MST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NMZ410-411-142245-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM MDT...
At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Radium Springs, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Leasburg, Radium Springs, Dona Ana, Fairacres, Picacho, Portions of
Jornada Experimental Range, Hill, Fort Selden State Historic Site,
and Leasburg Dam State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3243 10712 3259 10701 3257 10664 3223 10691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 290DEG 17KT 3248 10697
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
ZASpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 3:19 PM MST, 1 hour 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
419 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NMZ410-411-427-142245-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
419 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM MDT...
At 419 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Jornada Range, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Jornada Range, East Mesa, and Portions of Jornada Experimental Range.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3254 10694 3268 10686 3271 10647 3240 10666
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 291DEG 13KT 3257 10683
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
ZASpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 3:35 PM MST, 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
435 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NMZ410-411-427-142300-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
435 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OTERO AND CENTRAL
DONA ANA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM MDT...
At 434 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong outflow boundary
along a line extending from 4 miles southeast of Jornada Range to
Dona Ana to 12 miles west of Fairacres. Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Las Cruces, Vado, White Sands Missile Range Headquarters, NMSU Main
Campus, Dona Ana, Mesquite, Mesilla, San Miguel, Fairacres, Organ,
Talavera, La Mesa, East Mesa, Afton Generating Plant, San Pablo,
Picacho, Portions of Jornada Experimental Range, Northeast Las
Cruces, Corralitos, and Dripping Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3257 10619 3222 10646 3205 10690 3228 10713
3239 10683 3263 10663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 288DEG 26KT 3257 10668 3240 10682 3231 10705
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ZASpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:11 PM MST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
511 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NMZ410-411-427-142345-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
511 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...
At 511 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Organ, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Las Cruces, White Sands Missile Range Headquarters, NMSU Main Campus,
Organ, Talavera, East Mesa, Northeast Las Cruces, Dripping Springs,
Aguirre Springs, Portions of Organ Mountains Desert Peaks National
Monument, and Soledad Canyon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3241 10675 3249 10657 3224 10640 3216 10676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 336DEG 14KT 3238 10664
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
ZASpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:15 PM MST, 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
515 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NMZ411-142345-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
515 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DONA ANA COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...
At 515 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Afton, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Afton, Mesilla, Fairacres, Aden Crater, Mesilla Valley Bosque State
Park, and Kilbourne Hole.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3215 10720 3231 10708 3228 10679 3193 10698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 294DEG 11KT 3222 10704
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ZASpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:16 PM MST, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
516 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NMZ409-427-142345-
Sierra County Lakes NM-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
516 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SIERRA COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...
At 516 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 21 miles northeast of Engle, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Salinas Peak.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3339 10637 3339 10635 3326 10635 3331 10711
3348 10713 3348 10638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 268DEG 11KT 3341 10679
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ZA