What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 14, 3:25 PM EST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 PM EDT for portions of south-central, central, and east-central Virginia. There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across all zones through this evening (including zones not in the Watch). 2) A cooler, drier pattern takes hold early this week. A return to warmer and more humid conditions Wed-Thu and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms later Thursday.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 14, 3:25 PM EST, 1 hour 33 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 PM EDT for
portions of south-central, central, and east-central Virginia.
- A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Bayside of
the Maryland eastern shore for the the high tide cycle tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 PM EDT for
portions of south-central, central, and east-central Virginia.
There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across all zones through this evening (including zones not in
the Watch).
2) A cooler, drier pattern takes hold early this week. A return to
warmer and more humid conditions Wed-Thu and the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms later Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 420 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 PM EDT
for portions of south-central, central, and east-central Virginia.
There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across
all zones through this evening (including zones not in the Watch).
Updated to add SVR Tstm Watch through 11 PM. Latest analysis
indicates W-SW flow aloft across the FA this aftn with an upper
trough approaching the central/southern Appalachians. At the
surface, a cold front is still well off to our NW from western
NY to the OH Valley. A weak sfc warm front lifted north through
the CWA earlier this morning, allowing dew pts to surge into the
low-mid 70s across SE VA/NE NC, though they are now mixing out
into the upper 60s to lower 70s area- wide. Thus far, widely
scattered showers and tstms have started across south central VA
and into eastern/central NC, but have been struggling to
intensify despite ample thermodynamic profiles- ML CAPE
1500-3000 J/Kg, DCAPE>1000 J/Kg, and 0-3 km lapse rates ~8.5C.
What is limited is likely that weak riding is still in place in
the H7-H5 layer. After ~5 PM, height falls are forecast to push
into the piedmont as the trough aloft moves in from the west,
shifting towards the coast through ~8PM. This will lead to
increasing deep layer shear (to 25-35 kt), though mid level
lapse rates are still very marginal at best 5.5C to ~6C/Km.
Latest SPC discussion mentions an 80% chc for a SVR Watch as
this occurs, so continue to monitor forecast updates. Given all
of this, there will be threat for strong to severe storms,
mainly from about 5PM -9PM (potentially lingering a few hrs
longer near the coast). 18Z soundings from LWX/RNK show a well
mixed inverted V profile sounding, with straight line damaging
winds gusts as the main severe mode. A brief spin up cannot be
completely ruled out, especially across NE portions of the area
mainly due to localized land/marine interactions. As for hail,
expect the potential for small hail, but large hail will likely
be hard to come by due to marginal mid-level lapse rates.
Finally, storms will be moving rather quickly so only isolated
instances of flash flooding are expected over urban areas. The
cold front moves through a majority of the area between about 2
Am and 5 AM, night bringing drier air and ending the threat for
any severe weather. However, in typical fashion for the summer
months, the front likely stalls near or just south of the local
area, with a few showers possible in NE NC into early Mon aftn.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A cooler, drier pattern takes hold early this week.
A return to warmer and more humid conditions and the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.
Cooler conditions are expected through at least the first half of
next week as an upper trough develops over the eastern half of the
US. In addition, the front from today/tonight lingers near or just
south of the area. The forecast has remainder similar for
Monday with only a small chance for a shower or storm across far
S/SE portions the area, the majority of the area will remain
dry. Much drier air (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s), near to
slightly below average temperatures (low to mid 80s), and
partly sunny skies should make for pleasant and comfortable day.
Clouds and rain chances expand back a bit further N/NW on
Tuesday as the front to the south begins to lift north. The best
rain chances (scattered showers/storms) on Tuesday will mainly
be near/along the Albemarle Sound in NC with lower chances off
to the N/NW. Temperatures stay in the low-mid 80s (upper
70s/around 80 closer to the coast) on Tuesday with the increase
in cloud cover, precipitation chances, and onshore flow. Warmer
and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions
of the week as the trough begins to break down and a warm front
lifts through the area. The Thursday-Friday timeframe likely
becomes more active preciptation-wise as another front
approaches and crosses the area from the NW. We are also
watching for another severe weather potential, with SPC
highlighting northern portions of the area in a day 5 15% severe
weather outlook. In addition, temperatures may approach Heat
Advisory criteria for portions of the area on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions prevail with mainly SCT cu and S-SW winds around
10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt across the main terminals. However,
starting to see widely scattered showers and a few tstms off to
the W/SW of the region (and also along the Carolina coast).
Precise timing and coverage remains uncertain, but the greatest chances
for flight restrictions appear to be from around 22Z-03Z (latest
at SBY). Have included TEMPO groups for TSRA at all terminals,
primarily from 22Z-02Z, except 00-04Z at SBY. Some storms may
be severe with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, but
for the TAFs have limited to gusts to 30-35 kt for now. Storms
taper to rain showers later in the evening/overnight before ending.
MVFR CIGs potentially develop after midnight, mainly closer to
the coast. Winds are forecast to shift from SW to the N-NW between
07-10Z at RIC/SBY, and a few hrs later for SE VA/NE NC. Gusts
to ~20 kt are likely through Monday morning/early aftn near the
coast, and a few showers could redevelop in NC and affect ECG
through 18Z/Mon (though chances are 30% or less).
Outlook: Any lingering SHRA are expected to be south of the region
later Monday, with VFR/dry conditions to prevail Mon night. Becoming
more unsettled on Tuesday, with the potential for a few showers, mainly
for SE VA/NE NC, and then all areas late Tue night into early Wed
AM. Primarily dry/VFR conditions return for Wednesday through most
of Thursday, with showers/tstms possible late Thu/early Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches. Bay this
evening through tomorrow morning for SE winds of 15-20kt, becoming
NW early tomorrow.
A warm front is currently draped across the northern local waters
this afternoon, with winds generally the SE-SW. Winds have increased
to 10-15 kts this afternoon, and gusts around 15 kts, with a few
marine observation sites already seeing gusts to 15-20 kts. The
seabreeze influence also has a few areas in the Bay seeing more
easterly winds. Waves in the Bay are generally 1 ft or less, with
seas in the coastal waters seeing between 2-3 ft.
A cold front is approaching the area this afternoon and winds will
likely continue to ramp up some over the next few hours. SCAs are in
effect for the Bay, though winds will remain more marginal with this
initial surge ahead of the front. Winds and seas will fall slightly
short of SCA criteria in the coastal waters, though there may be a
few gusts to 25 kts across the nearshore coastal waters this
afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms will start to develop this
afternoon and evening along the front, bringing the potential for
severe wind gusts (50 kt+), isolated waterspouts, and small hail.
This storm threat will be handled with Special Marine Warnings as
needed. In the wake of the front on Monday morning, winds will shift
to the northwest and surge to 15-20 kts. While there will likely be
a slight decrease in winds tonight, the SCA for the Bay extends
through Monday morning to cover this secondary surge. High pressure
will build in behind the front, allowing winds to diminish pretty
quickly by Monday afternoon. Marine conditions will remain benign
through mid week as flow of 5-10 kt becomes onshore on Tuesday, then
shifts to the south on Wednesday. Another front will approach the
area by late week and could bring elevated winds to the coastal
waters on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
&&
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AC/NB
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 14, 3:21 PM EST, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
421 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>083-085-509>522-152030-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
New Kent-Middlesex-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
421 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia and
south central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon
into this evening. The primary hazard is damaging wind gusts of
60 to
70 mph, but hail, locally heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado
are also possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084-086>090-092-097>100-523>525-
528>531-152030-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Gloucester-Mathews-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Accomack-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
421 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon
into this evening. The primary hazard is damaging wind gusts of
60 to
70 mph, but hail, locally heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado
are also possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 14, 4:07 PM EST, 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
507 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NCZ016-017-102-142200-
Eastern Currituck NC-Camden NC-Western Currituck NC-
507 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND
NORTHEASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
At 507 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shiloh, or 7 miles east of Camden, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Camden
and northeastern Currituck Counties, including the following
locations... Barco, Coinjock, Riddle, Poplar Branch, Aydlett, Texas,
Waterlily, Bertha, Goose Creek, and Bartlett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3627 7613 3655 7593 3655 7592 3658 7591
3658 7589 3656 7588 3657 7590 3656 7590
3655 7588 3655 7587 3658 7587 3658 7583
3636 7576 3618 7602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 223DEG 20KT 3630 7605
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HETSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:12 PM EST, 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
512 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
VAZ065-142200-
Mecklenburg VA-
512 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hitesburg, or near Virgilina, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
vehicles. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Buffalo Springs around 520 PM EDT.
Clarksville around 525 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Fairview, Nelson,
Rogers Corner, Spanish Grove, Buffalo Junction, Finchley, John H Kerr
Reservoir, Baskerville, and Skipwith.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
south central Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3657 7873 3658 7872 3668 7870 3669 7868
3669 7865 3664 7858 3664 7856 3670 7865
3681 7856 3687 7843 3685 7842 3686 7837
3664 7822 3654 7861 3654 7873 3655 7874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 244DEG 29KT 3662 7873
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
HETSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:20 PM EST, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
520 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
NCZ013-014-030-031-142145-
Hertford NC-Bertie NC-Gates NC-Chowan NC-
520 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HERTFORD...CENTRAL
GATES AND NORTHWESTERN CHOWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...
At 519 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harrellsville, or 7 miles south of Gatesville, moving northeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Gatesville around 530 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Eure, Gliden, Easons
Crossroads, Newsome Store, Arrowhead Beach, Rays Beach, Sign Pine,
Buckland, Sandy Cross, and Carter.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3622 7674 3624 7673 3624 7680 3629 7692
3655 7683 3655 7681 3641 7649 3635 7655
3635 7656 3627 7664 3621 7671
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 215DEG 19KT 3631 7678
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BROWNSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:37 PM EST, 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
537 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
VAZ062-510-511-142200-
Goochland VA-Western Hanover VA-Eastern Louisa VA-
537 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA...CENTRAL
GOOCHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN HANOVER COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
At 536 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Gum Spring, or near Hadensville, moving northeast
at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Locations impacted include...
Hadensville, Gum Spring, Bumpass, Montpelier, Orchid, Sandy Hook,
Vontay, Coatesville, Mabelton, Dabneys, Othma, Locust Creek, and
Apple Grove.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3770 7791 3780 7807 3802 7776 3783 7753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 238DEG 30KT 3782 7790
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MMSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:41 PM EST, 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
541 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
VAZ062-069-511-515-142215-
Goochland VA-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond) VA-
Western Hanover VA-Powhatan VA-
541 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND...
NORTHWESTERN HENRICO...WEST CENTRAL HANOVER AND POWHATAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...
At 541 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Powhatan, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible. Reduced visibility and minor flooding possible.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Locations impacted include...
Powhatan, Goochland, Tuckahoe, Oilville, Manakin, Macon, Sabot,
Wyndham, Crozier, Rock Castle, Vontay, Maidens, Johnsons Springs,
Fine Creek Mills, Michaux, Lake Powhatan, Goodwins Store, Flat Rock,
Hatchers, and Jefferson.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3758 7808 3770 7791 3774 7781 3773 7780
3774 7779 3778 7770 3760 7754 3748 7794
3749 7797 3749 7799 3750 7800 3749 7802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 242DEG 33KT 3757 7793
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MMSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:48 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
548 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
VAZ080-081-088-514-142230-
Prince George VA-Dinwiddie VA-Sussex VA-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
548 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PRINCE GEORGE...NORTH CENTRAL
SUSSEX AND EAST CENTRAL DINWIDDIE COUNTIES...THE CITY OF HOPEWELL AND
THE CITY OF PETERSBURG THROUGH 630 PM EDT...
At 547 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Carson, or 9 miles south of Petersburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
vehicles. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Petersburg around 600 PM EDT.
Fort Gregg-Adams and Prince George around 610 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include New Bohemia, Richard
Bland College, Templeton, Birchett Estate, Reams, Prince George Golf,
Jordan Point Country Club, and Petersburg National Battlefield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central, south central and east central Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3735 7731 3732 7727 3731 7726 3731 7725
3719 7706 3697 7736 3705 7750
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 217DEG 20KT 3707 7739
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
HET