During the late afternoon and evening of April 11th, 2026, a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving out of the west resulted in the development of a surface low pressure system over the western Dakotas. This system lifted a surface boundary and a plume of moisture back into the eastern Nebraska, causing dew points to increase into the low-to-mid 60s.
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The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
During the late afternoon and evening of April 11th, 2026, a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving out of the west resulted in the development of a surface low pressure system over the western Dakotas. This system lifted a surface boundary and a plume of moisture back into the eastern Nebraska, causing dew points to increase into the low-to-mid 60s. Simultaneously, a secondary shortwave over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska ejected northeastward toward the area.
An unstable environment characterized by convective available potential energy (CAPE) values of 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg, coupled with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer wind shear (0-6 km bulk shear), provided sufficient fuel and organization for severe weather. Although initially conditional on storms overcoming atmospheric capping to develop and sustain themselves, a few strong to severe thunderstorms successfully formed and tracked into southeast Nebraska. As these storms moved through, an Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) located at Brenner Field in Falls City, NE measured a severe wind gust of 68 mph at 7:21 PM CST.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 11, 5:38 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditional threat for strong to severe storms (20 to 40% chance) expected today. If a storm can develop, it will likely become severe with all hazards possible. - Showers and storms persist for Sunday, particular in far southeast Nebraska toward western Iowa (25 to 50% chance). A strong storm or two may occur (5% chance). - Active pattern continues into next week with continued shower and storm chances. Some storms may be strong, particularly on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures in the 70s and 80s persist before a slight cool down expected on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 18z RAP objective analysis at H8 shows a 30 to 40kt LLJ pointing into much of the Central and Northern Plains. This feature helped force widespread showers and storms earlier this morning, with most locations receiving anywhere from a tenth to quarter of an inch of rainfall, while far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa received a healthy half inch to inch. A brief lull in activity is expected for the early afternoon with only a few lingering rain showers. Expect highs today to reach the 60s to low 70s with gusty south-southeasterly winds. A stronger H5 shortwave off to the west will eventually result in a sfc low developing out in the western Dakotas. The feature will lift a boundary and plume of moisture back into the area with dew points increasing to the low to mid 60s. A secondary shortwave now currently over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will also eject northeast toward the area. Instability of 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg in addition to 30 to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear will be available for convection to use **IF** it can develop and sustain itself. Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest weak capping hanging on across much of the forecast area aside from portions of southeast Nebraska where daytime heating may erode the feature. Latest 12z CAM output suggests a variety of scenarios that could occur. Some guidance like the NSSL WRF tries to develop some convection in southeast Nebraska as early as 19-20z as the secondary H5 wave inches closer to the area, likely rooted aloft per forecast soundings. However, other guidance like the HiRes ARW, FV3, and eventually the NSSL WRF develop convection around 23z/00z that would likely be sfc based. 12z and subsequent runs of the HRRR model seem the least interested in firing off and sustaining any convection in the area likely due to the nebulous forcing from the wave being unable to break the cap. All this to say that lots of uncertainty exists regarding if convection will develop. If convection does form, it will likely become severe with large hail and strong winds, and if it can become sfc based, a tornado cannot be ruled out (especially in southeast Nebraska) given the impressive low level curvature observed in hodographs and model output 0-1 km SRH of 100- 200 m2/s2. A conditional marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place for much of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Given the uncertainty of showers and storms developing, have continued trend of keeping lower PoPs of 20 to 40% for much of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Overnight into early Sunday morning, CAMs suggest a few lingering showers across the area (15-20% chance). Lows tonight remain mild in the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday will see some continued chances for showers and thunderstorms, this time over our far southeast areas (25-50% chance). Model guidance indicates a second wave clipping those areas along with continued warm air advection helping provide lift, although the better moisture transport shifts east of the area by Sunday afternoon. If convection is able to develop, could see another threat for strong to severe storms with lingering instability/borderline shear of 25 to 30 kts. A marginal risk for severe storms remains in place for much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Highs Sunday warm to the mid 70s to mid 80s over our far northwest with gusty southwest winds. Our far northwest could see some high to very high fire danger too, but that may be negated by the recent rainfall we've received/the spring greenup. The lowest RH of 15 to 20% also doesn't appear to overlap with the strongest wind speeds. Sunday night may see a few lingering rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly over our far eastern areas with chances remaining at 20 to 40%. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The active pattern for showers and storms will continue into much of next week. For Monday, will see another H8 baroclinic zone lift northeast across the area with continued warm air advection helping push temperatures to the 80s areawide. A sfc low will track northeast through the area in tandem with a mid level wave which may help spark some showers and storms. However, the LLJ looks to point more toward the east, away from the forecast area. If a storm manages to form, it could become strong. NBM currently suggests only a 15 to 20% chance for some light PoPs along our northern and eastern border areas for Monday. By Tuesday, should see a more potent H5 shortwave lift northeast from the Four Corners area into the Central and Northern Plains. Lee cyclogenesis ensues with the sfc cyclone tracking northeast throughout the day. Model guidance suggests the best instability and moisture pooling behind the front over our far eastern and southeastern service area. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear, should see another severe threat for the area (15% chance for areas east of a Lincoln to Omaha line). PoPs remain at 20 to 40% areawide Tuesday. Model guidance stalls the shortwave a bit by Wednesday with lingering showers before finally lifting out of the area Thursday with brief ridging. Continued disturbances are progged to track through the area by late Thursday into Friday resulting in continued PoP chances of 20 to 40% by Friday. Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday remain warm in the 70s and 80s before a slight cool down to the 60s to low 70s arrives for Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 KOFK: Lower ceilings are expected to improve over the next couple of hours at the terminal. Expect LLWS to develop this evening, persisting through around 12Z. South winds become southwesterly Sunday morning, decreasing to around 10-15kts. KOMA: Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along the Kansas/Nebraska border and are expected to move to the northeast over the next few hours, potentially bringing some impacts to the terminal after 01Z. LLWS will develop this evening out of the south around 50kts, becoming more southwesterly around 08Z. Southerly winds persist through the forecast period. KLNK: A few strong to severe thunderstorms have developed southwest of the terminal. At the present time, rain is expected to move into the vicinity of the the terminal around or shortly before the onset of the TAF period. Thunderstorms will move in over the next 1-2 hours. Expect LLWS to develop this evening after 02Z, persisting through around 13Z Sunday morning. Southerly winds persist overnight, shifting to the southwest after sunrise. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...ANW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 730 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-130030- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page- Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton- Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas- Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson- Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 730 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may be possible this evening. Hail and gusty winds will be the main concerns with any storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Daily thunderstorm chances continue Sunday in into early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible at times, especially on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:18 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fall City, Nebraska Airport ASOS (KFNB) measured wind gust of 68 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, April 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1329112.