Tornado and Flash Flood in Utah, April 11 to 14, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1111 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.UPDATE...Quick update AFD today due to widespread convection
impacting the region.

Looking at the current mesoanalysis, SBCAPE values have increased
through the morning, averaging 500-1000 J/kg based on the latest
mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear is more than sufficient...with a
broad area of 0-6KM shear in excess of 40-50 kts across the
Beehive State. A dry slot will shift north and east with time,
clearing convection across southern Utah by late afternoon.

Main threats today are small hail (less than 5% chance of hail in
quarter size or larger), strong winds in excess of 58 mph with
thunderstorms (5-10% chance across northern and eastern Utah) and
localized flash flooding across portions of south central and
southeastern Utah. The most at risk locations for flash flooding
include Capitol Reef National Park, the Grand Staircase National
Monument, the San Rafael Swell, western Canyonlands and Glen
Canyon National Recreation Area.

The threat of flash flooding will end across southern Utah by 4-5
PM. The threat for organized convection across northern Utah,
Uinta County, WY and eastern Utah will diminish after 5 PM.

Ahead of cold front crossing the region Sunday, expect a greater
than 70% chance of wind gusts in excess of 45 mph across
southwestern and west central Utah, the Sevier Valley and Castle
Country. These areas will likely need wind advisories with this
package.

Key messages and the aviation AFD are updated. The previous AFD
follows for the remainder.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (5-10% chance of wind
  gusts in excess 58 mph) is outlooked for portions of northern
  and eastern Utah this afternoon and evening.

- Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will occur across southwest and
  west central Utah, the Sevier Valley and Castle Country Sunday
  afternoon and evening.

- A storm system will bring unsettled conditions Sunday into
  Tuesday with periods of valley rain and accumulating mountain
  snow. The heaviest mountain snow is expected Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Freezing conditions will occur in the central and southern
  valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and across most
  valleys including the Wasatch Front Thursday night into Friday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Previous, issued at 1002 PM 04/10)...A broad storm
system is moving onshore along the California coast this evening,
putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a breezy southwest flow
aloft. This flow is drawing enough moisture northward for the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms early today,
with many of these storms producing gusty winds, some in excess of
40 mph. A few light showers remain and will continue to dissipate
into the overnight hours.

The California trough is on track to weaken significantly as it
moves onshore, eventually crossing northern Utah Saturday
afternoon and evening. The flow aloft is no longer expected to
increase much with the passage of the trough, so the potential for
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph has dropped to the 20 to 30 percent
range. While it would not be surprising to see isolated gusts in
excess of 40 mph, the areal extent and anticipated duration of
these winds would not warrant a Wind Advisory. Associated showers
and storms will be a bit more widespread compared to the last
couple of days, but the best coverage will be confined to areas
east of I-15, primarily over northern Utah. Still, any storms that
move over rain sensitive areas could bring the threat of flash
flooding.

As the weakening system exits the forecast area, another broad low
will approach the California coast. Guidance appears to be
converging on a solution for this low that would slowly track it
across the Great Basin and eventually into Utah and southwest
Wyoming Sunday into early Tuesday. There is high confidence that
this will bring substantial cooling to the area, with highs below
seasonal normals by Monday. The storm and associated cold front
will also bring unsettled conditions and the potential for
accumulating mountain snow, though totals overall look a bit less
impressive than they have the past couple of days. This is because
the system ultimately becomes a bit moisture starved and more
guidance is showing the system weakening somewhat as it moves
through, though not to the extent of the first system.

A drier zonal flow is expected to develop for the midweek period,
but long range guidance is showing the potential for a colder
storm system impacting the area by late in the work week, bringing
a chance of snow for most valleys as well as the mountains for day
seven.

&&

.AVIATION (Updated as of 1110 AM 4/11)...KSLC...VFR conditions
will prevail with some isolated thunderstorms present into the
afternoon hours. These thunderstorms will cause a brief drop into
MVFR as they pass with increased and more variable wind speeds.
Prevailing winds will be from a southerly direction before
shifting this afternoon. This shift will be a gradual shift to the
southwest then west with continued gusty winds. Winds will calm
overnight, before picking up again along a diurnal trend tomorrow.
More shower and thunderstorm chances again tomorrow, but later in
the day than what we have seen today.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Broadly VFR with isolated
areas of thunderstorms causing brief drops into MVFR this
afternoon into early evening. Winds will be more southwesterly
across southern Utah with more of a westerly component to the
north. Gusty synoptic winds through the day today falling
overnight along the usual diurnal curve. Winds pick up again
tomorrow from the south. More shower and thunderstorm chances on
Sunday, but generally later in the day than we have seen today.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Kruse/Carletta

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1019 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

UTZ101-102-104-105-111645-
Salt Lake Valley UT-Northern Wasatch Front UT-
Tooele and Rush Valleys UT-Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
1019 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Salt
Lake, southwestern Davis and northeastern Tooele Counties through
1045 AM MDT
...

At 1018 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stansbury Park, or near Tooele, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Salt Lake City, Tooele, Stansbury Park, Magna, Tooele Army Depot,
Bingham Canyon Mine, Great Salt Lake South of the Causeway, Lake
Point, Erda, and Antelope Island State Park.

This storm will be capable of producing strong gusty winds on the
Great Salt Lake. This will lead to a sudden increase in waves and
very choppy waters which will result in hazardous boating conditions.
Boaters are urged to seek safe harbor if possible.

This includes Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 91 and 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near the Great Salt Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4051 11218 4054 11241 4098 11241 4094 11197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 191DEG 39KT 4063 11227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1037 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

UTZ111-115>118-111715-
Sanpete Valley UT-Western Millard and Juab Counties UT-
Central Mountains UT-Eastern Juab/Millard Counties UT-
Wasatch Mountains South of I-80 UT-
1037 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Sanpete, east central Millard and southeastern Juab Counties through
1115 AM MDT
...

At 1036 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scipio, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nephi, Moroni, Scipio, Wales, Fayette, Fountain Green, Levan, and
Yuba Lake State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 15 between mile markers 189 and 196, and between mile
markers 200 and 229.
 US Route 50 between mile markers 130 and 131.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 11193 3926 11214 3979 11183 3964 11146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 210DEG 31KT 3928 11198

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1041 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

UTZ103-104-108-110-111730-
Wasatch Back UT-Eastern Box Elder County UT-
Northern Wasatch Front UT-Wasatch Mountains I-80 North UT-
1041 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Weber,
southwestern Cache, east central Box Elder and north central Davis
Counties through 1130 AM MDT
...

At 1041 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roy, or near Ogden, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ogden, Layton, Brigham City, Hill Air Force Base, Roy, Clearfield,
Clinton, North Ogden, South Ogden, Washington Terrace, Riverdale,
Hooper, South Weber, Perry, Wellsville, Willard,
Marriott-Slaterville, Uintah, Mantua, and Corinne.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 15 between mile markers 331 and 370.
 Interstate 84 between mile markers 82 and 87.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 11202 4159 11194 4158 11188 4151 11180
      4153 11178 4153 11176 4106 11196 4111 11205
      4115 11219 4174 11205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 194DEG 34KT 4122 11205

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1159 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

UTZ109-110-111830-
Bear Lake and Bear River Valley UT-Wasatch Mountains I-80 North UT-
1159 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cache
and northwestern Rich Counties through 1230 PM MDT
...

At 1159 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Garden City, or near Bear Lake Idaho Portion, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Garden City, Bear Lake, Garden, Pickelville,
and Lakota.

This storm will be capable of producing strong gusty winds on Bear
Lake. This will lead to a sudden increase in waves and very choppy
waters which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are
urged to seek safe harbor if possible.

This includes the following highways...
 US Route 89 between mile markers 488 and 502.
 Utah Route 30 between mile markers 110 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Bear Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4187 11132 4193 11154 4200 11151 4201 11127
      4201 11124 4200 11124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 200DEG 34KT 4198 11140

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JCW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E Garden City         41.94N 111.39W
04/11/2026  M68 MPH          Rich               UT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW8325 Garden City.

&&

CRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1203 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

UTZ111>113-117-118-111845-
Sanpete Valley UT-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs UT-
Western Uinta Mountains UT-Central Mountains UT-
Wasatch Mountains South of I-80 UT-
1203 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Sanpete, central Wasatch and south central Utah Counties through 1245
PM MDT
...

At 1203 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Woodland Hills, or 17 miles southeast of Payson,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Birdseye, Strawberry Reservoir, and Indianola.

This includes the following highways...
 US Route 6 between mile markers 183 and 199.
 US Route 40 between mile markers 31 and 47.
 US Route 89 between mile markers 292 and 312.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 11144 3981 11166 4034 11138 4035 11136
      4035 11120 4023 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 205DEG 33KT 3984 11151

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JCW