What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 11, 5:52 PM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon through tonight, and some risk for flash flooding tonight.
- Unsettled and potentially active pattern continues Sunday through Friday of next week with a severe weather risk Sunday through Wednesday, and daily chances of showers and storms through the week.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 11, 5:52 PM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon through tonight,
and some risk for flash flooding tonight.
- Unsettled and potentially active pattern continues Sunday
through Friday of next week with a severe weather risk Sunday
through Wednesday, and daily chances of showers and storms
through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
An approaching shortwave in southwest flow aloft will help to
initiate thunderstorm development in the TX Big Bend and
southwest Texas, into the Pecos Valley and portions of the Permian
Basin this afternoon into the evening. Out ahead of this
shortwave, scattered showers and storms are expected over our area
in a moist and unstable airmass. With CAPE values expected to
increase to 1000-1500 J/KG, the strongest storms will be capable
of producing large hail and localized strong or damaging winds.
Expect storms west and southwest of our area to increase in
coverage by this evening. Larger clusters of thunderstorms will
overspread at least the western half of our area between 8 PM and
Midnight, and the eastern and southeastern parts of our area after
Midnight. With storms tonight, the main severe weather threat
will be strong/possibly damaging winds, especially with any bowing
line segments. There is a very low (2 percent) threat for an
isolated tornado this evening and tonight.
With precipitable water values increasing to around 1.5 inches,
heavy rain will accompany the convection. Overall, rainfall
amounts around 1 inch will be common, with areas under heavy
downpours receiving totals of 2 to 4 inches. A few higher totals
will be possible. While widespread rain will be beneficial for the
area, heavy rainfall concentrated in short periods of time (also
backbuilding storms) could cause flooding of city streets, low
water crossings and and other poor drainage areas. Quick rises on
some area streams and rivers will be possible tonight into Sunday
morning, especially in areas with hilly terrain. Expect showers
and storms to be over our eastern (Heartland) and southeastern
counties in the early to mid- morning hours Sunday, before ending.
After morning cloud cover on Sunday, coverage will decrease from the
west by afternoon. This should allow for the airmass to have enough
time to recover and become moderately unstable. Mid-level southwest
flow will be strong enough to support a severe weather threat
(mainly large hail and damaging winds) should any storms develop.
However, there is considerable uncertainty in this time on the
extent of development and storm coverage. Expect highs Sunday
afternoon to range from the upper 70s/near 80 in our southeastern
counties, to the mid 80s across a good portion of the Big Country
and Concho Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Southwest flow aloft will transition to zonal flow toward next
weekend. The main weather concerns begin with the approach of an
upper low over the 4 corners region Monday night, which brings in
chance of showers and thunderstorms. The better chance of storms,
however, will be Tuesday afternoon/evening and again Wednesday...as
storms develop off a dryline in the Permian Basin and moving east.
With a warm moist air mass with dew points in the lower to mid 60s,
there will be the potential for severe weather each day next week,
although Thursday and Friday looks less conducive for severe
weather. While its quite far out and confidence is low at this time,
shower and thunderstorm chances could increase again next weekend,
with approach of a weak front Saturday and a slightly stronger front
Sunday.
Over all, warm temperatures prevail next week with highs mainly in
the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Main concern will a line of strong/possibly severe convection
late this evening and overnight. Mainly VFR conditions through
mid to late evening, with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly at KSJT and KABI. A strong line of storms
is expected to develop and moves east across the terminals late
this evening/overnight. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the
main concern but some hail is also possible. Will continue with a
TEMPO groups for the line of storms and PROB30 groups for
lingering convection once the line passes. Stratus with MVFR/IFR
ceilings are expected towards daybreak through the morning hours.
Expect mainly light southeast to south winds overnight, except
erratic and gusty in and around convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 83 66 87 / 100 50 10 10
San Angelo 61 84 64 86 / 90 30 10 10
Junction 61 80 64 84 / 80 60 20 20
Brownwood 62 80 64 85 / 80 70 10 10
Sweetwater 63 85 65 88 / 100 20 0 0
Ozona 62 82 64 82 / 100 30 10 10
Brady 62 78 65 83 / 70 60 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 11, 2:52 PM CST, 4 hours 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
352 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
TXZ065-066-112130-
Runnels TX-Coke TX-
352 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND NORTHERN RUNNELS
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...
At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Runnels County near Norton, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail, along with
frequent lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Winters, Maverick, Hatchel, Norton, Wingate, Pumphrey, Wilmeth, and
Lake Winters Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3173 10012 3184 10028 3206 10021 3208 10003
3197 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 219DEG 18KT 3185 10015
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
19Special weather statement, Apr 11, 3:27 PM CST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
427 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
TXZ066-127-112230-
Runnels TX-Taylor TX-
427 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL NORTHERN RUNNELS COUNTY AND FAR
SOUTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM CDT...
At 425 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winters, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail, along with
frequent lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Winters, Wingate, Bradshaw, Drasco, Pumphrey, Wilmeth, and Lake
Winters Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3185 9998 3194 10015 3213 10009 3213 9978
3205 9972 3198 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 225DEG 16KT 3193 10002
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
19Special weather statement, Apr 11, 4:45 PM CST, 2 hours 58 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
TXZ066-127-112330-
Runnels TX-Taylor TX-
545 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND
NORTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...
At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Winters, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail along with
frequent lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Winters, Lawn, Bradshaw, Drasco, Lake Winters Lake, and Pumphrey.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3208 9969 3208 9971 3202 9971 3184 9987
3196 10008 3216 9998 3215 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 218DEG 21KT 3197 9994
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
19Special weather statement, Apr 11, 5:50 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
TXZ114-128-120030-
Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...
At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clyde, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clyde, Eula, and Us-283 Near The Callahan-Shackelford County Line.
This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 293 and 305.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3257 9926 3230 9950 3237 9963 3247 9963
3259 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 213DEG 13KT 3241 9956
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
19Special weather statement, Apr 11, 6:43 PM CST, 1 hour before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
743 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
TXZ076-120145-
Crockett TX-
743 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY
THROUGH 845 PM CDT...
At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Ft Lancaster to near
Pandale. Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ozona, The Intersection Of Ranch Road 2083 And Highway 405, Ft
Lancaster, The Intersection Of I-10 And Highway 405, and The
Intersection Of Highway 163 And Ranch Road 1973.
This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 345 and 369.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3029 10176 3034 10171 3034 10166 3039 10169
3042 10174 3044 10172 3047 10173 3047 10169
3049 10169 3057 10165 3064 10167 3065 10175
3067 10178 3079 10114 3029 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 259DEG 21KT 3057 10161 3021 10158
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PONOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1334347, 1334350, 1334338, 1334337, 1334339, 1334348, 1334340, 1334341, 1334349, 1334342, 1334343, 1334344, 1334345, 1334346.