An embedded shortwave moved northeast through a broad upper-level trough while increasing midlevel winds aided thunderstorm organization across the central Gulf Coast. Ample atmospheric moisture in the local soundings and strong instability supported expanding afternoon convection with very efficient rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
An embedded shortwave moved northeast through a broad upper-level trough while increasing midlevel winds aided thunderstorm organization across the central Gulf Coast. Ample atmospheric moisture in the local soundings and strong instability supported expanding afternoon convection with very efficient rainfall. Storms aligned with the southwesterly steering flow, allowing localized training and flash flooding near Gulfport.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 12:31 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 131 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 - Torrential rainfall possible with any stronger storms through this weekend. Rainfall rates of 2-5" per hour are possible and could easily overwhelm drainage systems. - High rain chances through the next several days. Areal 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Most of the country is under varying portions of upper level trough. A shortwave embedded within the broad scale trough is currently tracking northeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The low level dynamics are certainly better farther north into central MS. However, 500mb winds aloft are forecast to increase this afternoon from that shortwave which aide into convective organization. Moisture rich airmass remains in place, each WFOLIX sounding measuring near record PW for this time if year. One surprise on this morning's flight was just how much CAPE we have throughout the column from much steeper mid level lapse rates than previously seen. Localized hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 5 inches per hour will be possible within the strongest cores this afternoon and evening. The overall movement of storms might be faster than yesterday based on mean flow model sounding data, but updshear/downshear vectors are quite close in direction and bring a higher probability of thunderstorm training. That combined with intense rainfall rates definitely would promote localized flash flooding, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas. Going into the overnight period, meso and global models suggest a lull in convection, lasting well into Saturday morning. May be Saturday afternoon before convection develops. Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall and localized flooding impacts expected with nearly 100% coverage as another shortwave slides through the region. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 An unsettled and moisture airmass will persist through much of the extended forecast period as broad ridging remains suppressed to the south and east while upper level troughing generally remains in place each day. As seen recently, shortwave impulses will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm development. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the weekend and into early next week. Precipitable water values generally between 1.8 and 2.2 inches will continue to support efficient warm rain processes and locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop. Rainfall coverage may fluctuate somewhat day to day depending on subtle mesoscale boundaries, convective overturning from prior day activity, and shortwaves passing through the base of the broad scale trough. Its the Sunday impulse that is forecast to bring Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Sunday as it moves across the CWA. High temperatures will remain near climatological normals but lows above normal due to increased cloud cover and precipitation coverage. Although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, hence no Flash Flood Watch issued with this forecast period, isolated nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding issues will remain possible each day, especially in urban areas and locations that receive repeated rounds of convection. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions will dominate the period at terminals. Outside of BR at KMCB and KHUM tonight, impacts to visibility mainly comes from periods of heavy rainfall. Attempted to time that based on current radar trends as well as meso models. Should be a break in convection overnight at most terminals, with new convective development late morning to early afternoon Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain anchored over the western Atlantic throughout the forecast period. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds should generally right around 10 knots. Periods of near 15 knots possible, especially in open Gulf waters. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. MEFFER && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1132 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1110 AM Marine Tstm Wind 3 E Long Beach 30.36N 89.12W
05/22/2026 M41 MPH Harrison MS Mesonet
The Weatherflow mesonet XGPT in Gulfport on
Highway 90 measured a thunderstorm wind
gusts of 41 mph or 36 knots.
&&
MEFFERSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1133 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
MSZ085-088-221715-
Northern Jackson MS-Southern Jackson MS-
1133 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH 1215 PM CDT
...
At 1133 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Vancleave, or 11 miles northeast of St. Martin,
moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
St. Martin, Hurley, Vancleave, Wade, Latimer, and Gulf Hills.
This includes Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 48
and 54.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3044 8879 3045 8888 3059 8888 3073 8876
3073 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 222DEG 36KT 3058 8876
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CABSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
112 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
MSZ085-088-221900-
Northern Jackson MS-Southern Jackson MS-
112 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM CDT
...
At 112 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds over Big Point, or 8 miles
northeast of Escatawpa, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Escatawpa, Hurley, Big Point, Wade, and Vancleave.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3049 8861 3057 8862 3073 8842 3072 8841
3053 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 235DEG 17KT 3060 8848
FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CABThe Mobile radar (KMOB), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:01 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Intersection of Hwy 90 and 20th Ave flooded according to Harrison SO.
Intersection of Hwy 90 and Hewes Ave flooded according to Harrison SO.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1343352, 1343351.