A strong low-pressure developed over the Central Plains and moved into the Middle Mississippi Valley during the early afternoon hours on March 15, 2026. A strong pressure gradient developed across the Mid-South ahead of an approaching cold front, leading to gusty southerly winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A strong low-pressure developed over the Central Plains and moved into the Middle Mississippi Valley during the early afternoon hours on March 15, 2026. A strong pressure gradient developed across the Mid-South ahead of an approaching cold front, leading to gusty southerly winds. Isolated wind damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 12:08 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
108 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- A Wind Advisory is in effect through Monday morning for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the
entire Mid-South late this afternoon through this evening. The
main threat will be damaging winds and brief tornadoes, with a
secondary threat of large hail.
- Freeze Warnings and Watches are in effect for the Mid-South
Monday and Tuesday mornings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A 992 mb low pressure system was located over northern Missouri
at noon with a cold front extending into the Red River Valley.
The low-level jet ranges from 40 to 55 kts across the area, and
the surface pressure gradient has tightened from 6 mb across the
forecast area at 2 am last night to about 10 mb late this
morning. As a result, surface winds have picked up considerably
with gusts over 40 mph becoming common over NE AR, the MO
Bootheel, and NW TN. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire
area through 7 am Monday.
A powerful 100 kt mid-level jet is exiting the Rockies this
morning and moving into the Southern Plains. This will result in
the rapid deepening of the upper trough across the center of the
country. The upper trough will take on a negative tilt as it
approaches the Mid-South this evening, which will result in very
strong lift across the region as the flow aloft becomes
increasingly diffluent. As the lift strengthens over the frontal
zone, storms will develop across western Arkansas early this
afternoon and then race eastward. Meanwhile, the strong southerly
winds will be advecting in increasingly unstable air. Temps will
warm into the 70s ahead of the front, and the latest CAMs bring
lower 60s dewpoints into the entire Delta region by late this
afternoon. MLCAPE values should reach at least 750 to 1250 J/kg
across the Delta region as well, with some 12z CAMs even more
aggressive. Expect the QLCS to intensify as it approaches this
instability axis and the upper lift strengthens with the
deepening upper trough. There is some concern that a few discrete
cells could form ahead of the line at the beginning of the event,
mainly across the Delta and along the MS River. A few CAMs are
hinting at this since the cap appears to be weaker than models
have depicted over the last few days. Also, if the instability
overperforms and is more like the 12z HRRR with its MLCAPE of
1000 to 1500 J/kg then discrete cells become more of a
possibility. However, the environment is most favorable right
ahead of the front, and anything that does develop will likely
quickly merge with the line. If these cells do develop, they
represent an all-hazards threat with the possibility of a strong
tornado.
The line of storms will race across the Mid-South, likely taking
about 6 hours once it enters NE AR until it leaves NE MS. The
storms should enter NE AR around 4-5 pm and exit NE MS around 10-
11 pm. The main threat from this line is damaging winds. Strong
wind shear combined with decent instability will result in a
vigorous line of storms that will access the very strong winds
aloft. Steep mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/km and dry air aloft
will help provide fuel for strong downdrafts. Bowing segments
will likely have corridors of significant winds (75 mph+) in this
situation. Embedded spin-up tornadoes are also a concern with
this QLCS. Hodographs are favorable for these types of tornadoes
with good low-level veering and 0-1km helicity values around
250 m2/s2. Look for these with bowing segments or breaks in the
line. The parameter space does support the possibility of a
strong (EF2+) QLCS tornado. Mesovortices that produce these spin-
ups can also produce corridors of significant wind damage.
Finally, there is also a threat of large hail up to the size of
ping pong balls, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River,
where the instability is maximized late this afternoon and early
in the evening.
After the front moves through, gusty west and northwest winds
will continue to gust at 30 to 40 mph overnight. A few snowflakes
may fly as the precipitation ends, but nothing significant is
expected. Much colder air will rush in with temperatures at or
below freezing across most of the forecast area by Monday
morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect across most of the area.
Monday will be very cold and about 20-25 degrees below normal.
Arctic high pressure will settle over the region Monday
night/Tuesday morning with a hard freeze over the entire Mid-
South. A Freeze Watch continues for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Lows will be deep into the 20s with perhaps some teens in the
colder spots.
A warming trend will get started Tuesday, though another Freeze
Warning will likely be needed across eastern sections on
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will warm into the 70s by the end
of the week and into the lower 80s next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Strong gradient winds will continue ahead of a cold front. Gusts
could reach up to 35-40 KTS. Line of TSRAs will develop along
the cold front and move through the TAF sites between 23-04Z. An
AWW may become necessary at KMEM with the winds expected with the
TSRAs. Meanwhile, CIGS/VSBYS will deteriorate with the line. MVFR
CIGS will then likely linger into the overnight at KJBR and KMEM
and into the morning at KMKL and KTUP. North winds of 15-18 KTS
sustained with gusts up to 25-28 KTS will occur behind the front
through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple of
days. A widespread wetting rain is expected late this afternoon
through this evening as a line of thunderstorms moves across the
Mid-South, followed by much colder temperatures for early next
week. Above normal temperatures will return by late week,
however, relative humidity will remain in the 40 percent range.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MSZ001>015-
020>022.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...KRMThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was knocked down on a home near Eudora, MS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1325124.