Wildfire and Dust Storm in Texas, March 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
923 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Very windy today with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph expected.

- Near-crticial to critical fire weather today, mainly due to
  strong winds

- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in
  the single digits and teens.

- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
  with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Made a quick update to first period grids to better support
potential fire weather operations. Nudged grids towards the HRRR
which (a) brings a sharper increase to the wind speeds at the
front moves through, (b) brings in lower dewpoints quicker, and
(c) cools temperatures are little quicker, at least in the north
and west with this initial surge of cooler air. Although this
somewhat cooler, somewhat lower dewpoints act to offset each
other, the net effect was that forecast minimum humidity values
are a little lower, especially in the southwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Quite mild conditions are in place early this morning as a strong
low-level jet is keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Surface
analysis shows a cold front across southern Nebraska that is
forecast to race southward this morning as a trough amplifies
across the central US. Very strong north winds and falling
temperatures are expected behind the front today. Sustained speeds
of 30-40 mph are likely with gusts over 60 mph at times,
especially across western OK into western north TX. Blowing dust
is also likely for these areas as much of the region upstream has
seen little recent rainfall and vegetation remains dormant. A
High Wind Warning is in effect for most of the area outside
southeast OK, where a Wind Advisory is in effect for gusts of 40
to 50 mph.

Fire weather will also be a concern today as even with falling
temperatures such intense winds and dry fuels will make it more
difficult to deal with any fires that start. Perhaps the greatest
overall fire risk will be across southwest OK and western north TX
where near-critical to critical fire conditions are expected as
temperatures will be a bit warmer and relative humidity a bit
lower for these areas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of
the area along and west of I-35.

Winds will only gradually decrease this evening as it appears the
boundary layer will take a couple hours to fully decouple after
sunset. Strong cold advection will make for a chilly night tonight
with lows dropping well into the 20s for most of the area, with some
teens possible in northern/northwestern OK. Combined with a
lingering northerly breeze, it will feel 10-15 degrees colder in
most spots.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The area will remain under the influence of surface ridging Monday
with north-northwest winds keeping temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid 50s for highs. Winds will veer back to the south by Tuesday,
helping boost highs back above average into the 60s and 70s. Will
have to watch for a fire weather risk Tuesday with potential for a
dry return flow setup creating elevated to near-critical fire
weather.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end
of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb)
builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to
point towards the potential for record heat across the area with
widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the
question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably,
even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March
high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th
percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area
and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread
increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to
bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but
confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time.
Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region
precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next
7 days if not longer.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Primary factor for aviation will be a powerful cold front that
will move through the area between 12Z and 18Z. Prior to FROPA,
MVFR to IFR skies will be noted at DUA and perhaps briefly as far
north as the OKC metro. Prior to frontal passage, extreme winds
with gusts upwards of 45-50 knots will occur for the rest of the
daytime and last into the early part of the night. Blowing dust
could be a factor in reducing visibilities, especially in
northwest Oklahoma. Winds will become less-gusty overnight but
remain from the north-northwest.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  24  48  28 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         61  22  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  28  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           52  19  51  30 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  20  43  24 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  30  49  29 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
     033>040-044-045.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04