A potent low pressure system and cold front impacted a large part of the eastern United States on March 15 into the early morning hours of March 16, 2026. Ahead of this cold front, southerly non-thunderstorm winds strengthened across Middle Tennessee with 40 to 55 mph wind gusts common throughout much of the afternoon of March 15th.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A potent low pressure system and cold front impacted a large part of the eastern United States on March 15 into the early morning hours of March 16, 2026. Ahead of this cold front, southerly non-thunderstorm winds strengthened across Middle Tennessee with 40 to 55 mph wind gusts common throughout much of the afternoon of March 15th. These winds caused several reports of downed trees and powerlines. The cold front along with a line of thunderstorms then approached from the west during the evening of March 15th and moved east through the early morning hours of March 16th. Damaging winds were the primary threat with this line of thunderstorms with many more reports of downed trees, tree branches, powerlines, and other damage received. This system was also responsible for three tornadoes, two of which were EF-1s. Fortunately, no injuries or fatalities occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 10:01 AM CST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1101 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Wind Advisory is in effect today and tonight. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected. - A line of thunderstorms is expected Sunday evening and into the early overnight period. Main threats with these storms are damaging winds (some potentially exceeding 75 mph), and there is also a low to medium tornado threat. - Temperatures will plummet late Sunday night and Monday, allowing for light snow accumulations of less than 1/2" most areas. (Some portions of the Cumberland Plateau may see a little more.) Temperatures Monday night will drop into the upper teens to low 20s. After that, we'll undergo a warming trend the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 At 15Z, a deep low is centered near the IA/MO/IL confluence with a strong cold front trailing south-southwestward from the surface low, which places it just west of the Ozarks. Very little has changed with the forecast since mid-day yesterday. However, one changed we have noted is that the 10% tornado probability has been pulled farther west, so that now only portions of western Middle Tennessee are included, with the 5% risk area now covering a greater portion of the mid state. Also, there is now a low hail risk over extreme western and southwestern Middle Tennessee. But our overall messaging has not changed. The HRRR continues to develop a line of convection right along the frontal boundary as it comes through Middle Tennessee this evening. Due to a lack of deep instability, there appears to be little chance for any convective development ahead of the cold front/squall line. We expect the initial storms to enter Middle Tennessee between 01-02Z, reach the Nashville Metro Area between 03-04Z, and finally arrive in Crossville around 06Z. The forecast soundings just ahead of the convective line show a "tall, thin" CAPE, with the CAPE gradually eroding as the storms propagate eastward and we find ourselves farther removed from daytime heating. There will be pronounced low-level wind shear across all of Middle Tennessee for the duration. And 700-500 mb lapse rates are consistently 7.0C/km or greater throughout the evening. The lack of a "fatter" CAPE precludes any sort of meaningful hail risk. So that leaves us with a damaging wind and tornado threat owing to the modest instability and high helicities. Fortunately, the severe risk for any single location will be relatively short-lived and confined to the convective line itself. Once the storms have passed, we can expect some lingering showers and a sharp temperature drop. By tomorrow morning, readings across the region will be in the low to mid 30s, and daytime temperatures tomorrow won't even make it to 40 degrees in some areas. This is going to be quite shocking, to say the least. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly likely that we will experience some sort of light snowfall accumulation on Monday. While most locations will only receive a dusting up to 1/2", some spots on the Cumberland Plateau might actually see 1". At this time, we are not planning any sort of Winter Weather Advisory, but this will be looked at more closely once we have dealt with this evening's severe storms. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Fortunately, there are no precipitation chances in the forecast beyond Monday, and that takes us through next Sunday night. As far as temperatures go, tomorrow night's lows are going to represent the nadir in this brief but impactful cold snap. We're going to wake up Tuesday morning to readings in the upper teens to low 20s. Once we get past Tuesday morning, though, temperatures will warm up quickly so that we'll get back to our preferred springtime regime by Thursday, and the weather next weekend looks to be positively spectacular. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Low level wind shear will continue over the next 2-3 hours until surface winds catch up to the low level jet. Southerly surface winds will increase to 15-20 kts by 15z and increase further to 20-25 kts after 18z. Some gusts up to 35 kts will be possible during the afternoon at BNA/MQY/CKV. A line of showers and storms will impact the terminals from west to east after 16/02z ahead of a cold front. Winds will shift to the west and remain 12-17 kts with gusts up to 25 kts behind the front. MVFR cigs are expected to impact the terminals behind the front as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 34 40 23 / 0 100 30 0 Clarksville 77 31 40 21 / 20 90 20 0 Crossville 69 31 39 19 / 0 100 50 10 Columbia 75 31 40 21 / 10 100 30 0 Cookeville 71 32 38 21 / 0 100 50 10 Jamestown 70 31 38 19 / 0 100 50 10 Lawrenceburg 75 32 40 22 / 0 100 30 0 Murfreesboro 76 34 40 23 / 0 100 30 0 Waverly 75 31 39 21 / 20 100 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ005>011-023>034- 056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Reagan
The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:22 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 6 hail, 5 strong wind, 4 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong southerly winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms broke a power pole onto the roadway at Springer Road and Mattox Town Road in Lawrenceburg. Damages are a rough estimate.
Strong southerly winds caused a tree to fall across the roadway on Fish Trap Road before Old Chisholm Creek Road in western Lawrence County. Damages are a rough estimate.
Strong southerly winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms caused three utility poles to fall in the area of Weakley Lane and Sam Ridley Parkway in Smyrna which also caused power outages in the area. Damages are a rough estimate.
Strong southerly winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms caused a powerline to fall on Airport Road in Linden which caused a brush fire. Damages are a rough estimate.
Strong southerly winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms caused a tree to fall across the road at Overnack Road and Roysden Drive in Ethridge. Damages are a rough estimate.
As a severe thunderstorm moved through Stewart County, it caused 5,352 power outages which was about 66% of all customers in the county. Damages are a rough estimate.
An EF-0 tornado impacted portions of Clarksville. The tornado began in a neighborhood in Fort Campbell. Damage consisted of shingles off of roofs as well as some small tree limbs snapped. The tornado continued east toward Highway 41 where an overhang structure was blown down at a car wash. The tornado then moved northeast through additional neighborhoods and across Outlaw Airfield. Damage in the neighborhoods included rotten trees downed, tree branches snapped, downed fences, shingles blown off roofs, and occasional vinyl siding and metal fascia damage. The tornado crossed Outlaw Field and uprooted a few trees on a farm just northeast of the airfield. The tornado then continued northeast into a large residential neighborhood causing additional minor structural and roof damage to several homes and snapping small tree limbs. The tornado dissipated somewhere near the Tennessee and Kentucky state line in an open field south of Interstate 24 as no additional damage was found of Allen Road. Damages are a rough estimate.
A tornadic thunderstorm downed trees and caused roof damage on Tiny Town Road and Allen Road in Clarksville. Damages are a rough damage.
Estimated two inch hail was reported southeast of McEwen.
Quarter size hail was reported southeast of McEwen.
Estimated ping pong size hail was reported near Dickson.
Estimated ping pong size hail was reported in Dickson.
Estimated half dollar size hail was reported in Dickson.
An EF-1 tornado began along Highway 43 in Mount Pleasant. Many trees were uprooted or had broken limbs along the highway and Interstate. A few homes and barns had metal roofing blown off. The tornado continued northeast into Columbia, impacting neighborhoods and Columbia State Community College. Tree damage was noted frequently. Structural damage to homes was also noted, mainly to vinyl siding, shingles, and metal fascia. There was one building on Columbia State Community College that sustained roof damage as well as fencing on the ball fields. Next in the damage path was an industrial area along the Duck River. Many trees were uprooted, snapped, or sustained many broken branches. Several buildings lost metal roofing, and one larger metal building system had a portion of the south facing wall caved in. The tornado then moved back into residential areas, causing occasional trees down or branches broken, shingle damage, and damage to vinyl siding. The tornado ended along Green Mills Road in northern Maury County, just prior to reaching Spring Hill. Damages are a rough estimate.
Severe thunderstorm winds caused a utility pole to fall into a tree which caused a fire. Damages are a rough estimate.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed a tree in Charlotte Park in west Nashville. Damages are a rough estimate.
Estimated quarter size hail at Fairview Road in St. Joseph.
An EF-1 tornado began in Lauderdale County, Alabama and tracked into southern Middle TN. After the tornado crossed the Tennessee and Alabama state line, it traveled for ten more miles through Lawrence and Giles counties. In Bonnertown, many residences were impacted with several homes damaged. A few manufactured homes were moved off their piers, and a couple mobile homes were lofted or slid, but remained in tact. Other structural damage included missing awnings, removed shingles, carports thrown, and trees falling onto the structures. Several farm outbuildings were damaged. Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted. Beyond Bonnertown, the tornado continued east along Appleton Road, downing trees and destroying a chicken farm. The tornado then crossed into Giles County. Damages are a rough estimate.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed a tree in a backyard near Lakeland and Donelson Pike in Hermitage. Damages are a rough estimate.
This narrative is a continuation of the tornado that originated in Lauderdale County, Alabama and traveled into Lawrence County and then Giles County. As the tornado crossed into Giles County, damage was mostly trees downed or uprooted and branches snapped. A few structures were impacted in Giles County south to southwest of Minor Hill due to trees falling. A few metal farm outbuildings were also collapsed. The tornado ended quickly south-southeast of Minor Hill. Damages are a rough estimate.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed trees and limbs on Long Lane in Franklin. Damages are a rough estimate.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed sporadic trees across Wilson County, including one in the Five Oaks Neighborhood in Lebanon. Damages are a rough estimate.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed trees in the 8600 block of Willow Grove Highway north of Livingston. Damages are a rough estimate.
A 63 mph thunderstorm wind gust was measured near Allons.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed trees near Highway 111 and Highway 293. Damages are a rough estimate.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed a large tree on a home near Highway 52 and Highway 127. Damages are a rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Tennessee, 2026Warnings in Tennessee, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1312612, 1312613, 1312609, 1312610, 1312615, 1312519, 1312550, 1312529, 1312527, 1312520, 1312530, 1312532, 1312531, 1312556, 1312528, 1312533, 1312539, 1312566, 1312534, 1312569, 1312540, 1312535, 1312541, 1312542, 1312543, 1312547.