Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, June 10, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
  east of the Red River. Main hazards include hail to the size
  of ping pong balls, wind gusts to 60 mph, and perhaps a
  tornado.

- Much cooler, windier weather Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thunderstorms starting to develop along the frontal boundary
from near Fargo to Thief River Falls. There is some decent 1500
J/kg of ML CAPE, and enough deep layer shear to sustain
updrafts. While there is not a lot of low level shear for
tornado threat, can't completely rule one out but think the main
threats will be ping pong ball sized hail and localized winds
to 60 mph. Watch will be issued shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 716 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Last of the overnight convection existed the eastern fcst area
around 6 am with last of the rain exiting Baudette area
currently. Satellite shows some clearing behind this system, but
then as a cold front moves in from the west do expect an
increase in cloud cover and chances for showers and t-storms
into eastern North Dakota and into western Minnesota late
morning into early afternoon. Position of cold front looks to be
just near or east of the immediate Red River valley at 18z and
at this time is when should have sufficient instability
(2000-300 j/kg MU CAPE and 50 kts 0-6 km bulk shear for
development of an area of thunderstorms, some severe. These
storms would move out of the area by 6 pm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper level trough over the Northwest Pacific into Intermountain
West is allowing embedded waves of energy to spread over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, including one shortwave
of note that will move out of the Northern Rockies into the
western Dakotas and eventually southern MB.

Ahead of these features, an air mass composed of hot
temperatures into the 90s concurrent with rich low level
moisture with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s has
overspread eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

This will set the stage for robust and eventual widespread
thunderstorms to develop, including those that become severe
given the increasing wind energy associated with the upper
trough, and locally enhanced near the embedded shortwave
troughs.

Hot and moist air mass currently in place is also leading to
potential for heat-related impacts to more sensitive groups this
afternoon within the Red River Valley. More information on this
can be found below.

The warm and moist air mass is expected to still linger within
Minnesota by afternoon Wednesday ahead of an eventual cold front
that will finally move east through our area by the afternoon.
The upper trough axis will also finally swing through our area
Wednesday during the day. This will allow for additional
thunderstorms to develop mainly within Minnesota, some of which
may again be severe.

More specific details on today's and Wednesday's severe risk can
be found below.

Thursday into next week, the pattern changes turning much cooler
and windier than recent days. Upper trough migrates into
southern Canada bringing zonal to northwesterly flow aloft over
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with the help of several
reinforcing cold fronts to sweep through our area. Forecast
highs into the 60s and lows into the 40s this weekend through at
least early next week.

...Severe risk today and Wednesday...

Previous AFDs talked about potential for discrete
supercellular-type storms capable of all hazards this
afternoon. Thus far, attempts at sustained thunderstorm
development has failed within our area. This may be due to just
enough capping as observed on a UND sounding sampled from Grand
Forks at 18Z.

However, with continued daytime heating and gradually increasing
moisture converging in localized areas within the Red River
Valley, northeast ND and northwest MN, there is still a chance
this scenario could come to fruition. Should this occur, large
hail to the size of golf balls (perhaps larger), tornadoes, and
localized gusts to 60 mph would be main hazards. This window for
discrete storms generally ends at around sunset/7 PM.

Later this evening/night, there remains high confidence in a
larger complex/line of storms to enter into the Devils Lake
basin at around 8 PM from central ND, with either additional
complex/line of storms or the same complex pushing
east/northeast elsewhere into eastern ND, Red River Valley, and
northwest into west-central MN during the overnight to early
morning Wednesday hours.

Main hazards with this later activity will be very gusty winds
60-70 mph, locally 80 mph, as well as line-embedded brief
tornadoes. Line-embedded tornadoes are typically on the weaker
side (less than EF-2 strength), and relatively brief/localized,
although potentially numerous spin ups could happen (low
confidence in coverage). These would likely be contingent to
portions of the leading edge of the complex/line that orient
themselves more west-east, and more perpendicular to the low
level shear. Additionally, these may be intermingled with
similarly strengthened straight lined winds to 80 mph.

While hail remains possible, hail would likely be more on the
smaller size (up to quarter inch), with the exception of if an
embedded supercellular structure can develop within the
complex/line in which hail could be as large as golf balls.

And for what it's worth based on recent questions we've
received, we are not anticipating this event to be similar to
June 20th 2025's derecho, based on this event's instability,
shear, and forcing for ascent parameter spacing not as robust as
June 20th's.

Getting into Wednesday, additional scattered storms are expected
to develop in the warm sector ahead of a cold front pushing east
into Minnesota. Instability and shear will still be high enough
to allow for potential severe storms as early as early
afternoon, lasting until around sunset. Main hazards with this
activity would be large hail to size of golf balls, localized
gusts to 60 mph, and perhaps isolated tornadoes.

...Heat-related impacts this afternoon...

As of writing this discussion, heat indices within portions of
the Red River Valley are in the upper 90s nearing 100F. Heat
indices nearing or just touching 100 F combined with wet-bulb
globe temperatures into the low 80s as well as Heat Risk of
Moderate to Major (levels 2 and 3 out of 4) within the Red River
Valley pushed the need for an Advisory.

These conditions will be impactful to those more sensitive to
heat as well as those who are working/exercising outside as well
as to those without a means of cooling.

Heat impacts end after sunset this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Some of the TAF sites have gone down to MVFR or low IFR as
cumulus has started to bubble along the cold front close to the
Red River. But the main impacts during the next few hours will
be convection. KDVL is behind the cold front and may see a few
stray showers, but most of the thunderstorms will be at KFAR and
the MN airports. Have some prevailing thunder for KFAR for a
short time as some lightning producing convection moves in
during the next hour, then VCTS and tempo groups for it and the
MN airports as convection becomes less certain. Convection
should move east of most of our airports by 00Z, leaving VFR
conditions and southwest to west winds at 10 to 15 kts. Winds
will pick up from the southwest and northwest late in the
period, and most model solutions bring some MVFR ceilings into
KDVL tomorrow morning, so included it in the TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
732 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052>054-111245-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Steele-Barnes-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
732 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-030-039-
111245-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Traill-Cass-
732 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms within
the Red River valley and west central Minnesota and a level 2 out
of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms northwest and north central
Minnesota for this afternoon. Hazards include hail, severe wind
gusts up to 70 mph. Isolated tornado possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1034 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Fertile                 47.53N 96.29W
06/10/2026                   Polk               MN   Public

            Social media report of multiple trees down
            in the Fertile area.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Hamilton          48.79N 97.50W
06/09/2026                   Pembina            ND   Public

            Several large cottonwood trees down,
            structural damage to house including gutter,
            siding, and sofitt.

&&

TG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 E Fertile             47.53N 96.29W
06/10/2026                   Polk               MN   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            Fertile for correct location. Social media report of multiple
            trees down in the Fertile area.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NNW Forman            46.15N 97.68W
06/10/2026  M62 MPH          Sargent            ND   Mesonet

            Weather Underground station report.

1242 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NW Hamlin             46.22N 97.36W
06/10/2026  M78 MPH          Sargent            ND   Mesonet

            Weather Underground station report.

0106 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Mooreton          46.23N 96.89W
06/10/2026  M66 MPH          Richland           ND   Mesonet

            NDAWN site reporting at 33 ft.

0110 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSW Barrie            46.54N 97.14W
06/10/2026  M58 MPH          Richland           ND   Mesonet

            NDAWN site reporting at 10 ft.

0105 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Mcleod              46.44N 97.31W
06/10/2026  M59 MPH          Ransom             ND   Mesonet

1017 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Webster             48.30N 98.88W
06/09/2026  M58 MPH          Ramsey             ND   Mesonet

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 1
            N Webster. NDAWN site reporting at 33 ft.

1019 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Devils Lake         48.12N 98.92W
06/09/2026  M58 MPH          Ramsey             ND   ASOS

1140 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Hamilton          48.79N 97.50W
06/09/2026                   Pembina            ND   Public

            Several large cottonwood trees down,
            structural damage to house including gutter,
            siding, and sofitt.

1110 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SE Osnabrock          48.62N 98.07W
06/09/2026                   Cavalier           ND   Public

            Several large trees down - all laying to the
            northeast.

0143 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNW Fargo             46.92N 96.82W
06/10/2026  M60 MPH          Cass               ND   AWOS

0941 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Maddock             47.99N 99.53W
06/09/2026  M58 MPH          Benson             ND   Mesonet

            NDAWN site at 33 ft.

0950 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Baker                   48.17N 99.65W
06/09/2026  M61 MPH          Benson             ND   Mesonet

            Gust at 10 ft.

1215 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Wimbledon               47.17N 98.46W
06/10/2026                   Barnes             ND   Public

            Several Large Branches Down - Branches are
            about the size of a baseball bat in
            diameter.

0240 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 E Fertile             47.53N 96.29W
06/10/2026                   Polk               MN   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            Fertile. Social media report of multiple
            trees down in the Fertile area.

0250 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Parkers Prairie         46.15N 95.33W
06/10/2026                   Otter Tail         MN   Public

            Trees down on houses, large limbs down
            everywhere and a roof got ripped off of a
            trailer house in the trailer court. Quite
            widespread damage throughout town.

0250 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Parkers Prairie    46.17N 95.36W
06/10/2026  M62 MPH          Otter Tail         MN   Mesonet

            NDAWN site reporting at 10 ft.

0200 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hendrum                 47.26N 96.81W
06/10/2026                   Norman             MN   Trained Spotter

            Several large branches down along the roads.

0330 AM     Hail             3 NE Two Inlets         47.08N 95.17W
06/10/2026  E1.00 Inch       Hubbard            MN   Trained Spotter

0215 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hoffman                 45.83N 95.79W
06/10/2026                   Grant              MN   Trained Spotter

            Lots of trees down around town, at least one
            camper heavily damaged, a few grain bins
            punched in or thrown around, multiple car
            train derailment.

0145 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSE Dilworth          46.84N 96.66W
06/10/2026  M62 MPH          Clay               MN   AWOS

0150 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Sabin             46.80N 96.61W
06/10/2026  M62 MPH          Clay               MN   Mesonet

            NDAWN reporting site at 10 ft.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     Hail             2 NW Fargo              46.90N 96.83W
06/10/2026  M0.50 Inch       Cass               ND   Law Enforcement

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
134 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Felton             47.07N 96.52W
06/10/2026  M54 MPH          Clay               MN   Trained Spotter

&&