Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Michigan, February 22 to 23, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1254 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A combination of system snow and lake enhanced snow will bring
  some light snow accumulations through Sunday, with greatest
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches downwind of Lake Michigan.

- A period of more organization of lake effect snow bands is
  expected Sunday night into early Monday morning. This period represents
  the greatest potential for the higher snowfall rates and
  impacts to travel. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect late
  tonight through early Monday afternoon for Cass MI, Berrien
  MI, LaPorte IN, and St. Joseph IN Counties.

- Additional rain and snow chances for Wednesday and Thursday
  but extent of these chances and precip types remain of low
  confidence.

- Temperatures trend warmer late work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Cass MI/Berrien/St.
Joseph IN/LaPorte Counties from 06Z tonight to 18Z Monday. This
event will have a few different phases. There is lower confidence in
notable impacts tonight into Sunday with light system/lake enhanced
snow. The potential of higher snowfall rates and greater
impacts still looks to be Sunday evening into Monday AM.

Upstream flow is highly perturbed this afternoon with an initial
upper vort max lifting across northern Illinois. Vorticity advection
downstream of this feature is yielding some elevated returns per
regional radar mosaic. A relatively dry 3-7k foot layer is
limiting precip in association with this forcing. Depth of this
dry layer may be small enough to allow some seeder feeder
process and a few flurries through late afternoon. On the heels
of this lead wave will be another stronger upper vort max which
is expected to dig across TN Valley overnight tonight as an
upper speed max rounds the base of the trough. As this occurs,
the upper trough is expected to evolve from positively tilted to
negatively tilted into Sunday which will maintain influence
from this trough across the Great Lakes through the day. Low
level cold advection will increase, especially this evening into
the overnight. This will allow for increase in potential of
light system snow to be accompanied by some lake enhancement
into Sunday morning. Stronger synoptic forcing should be
displaced south and east of the local area, so only light snow
amounts are expected tonight into Sunday (generally 1-3") as
lake enhancement will be somewhat limited by modest lake induced
instability depths. Perhaps some compensation to southward
displaced synoptic forcing for some system snow will be
southwestward sagging low level baroclinic zone tonight arising
from collective warming influence of Great Lakes. This should
yield a few axes of low level fgen forcing as this modified low
level air encounters colder air advecting in across the western
Great Lakes. Otherwise, it will become windy for Sunday with
afternoon gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range. Temps should level
out for the PM hours or perhaps drop a few degrees.

All indications still point to the Sunday evening into Monday
morning for the potential greater impacts with lake effect snow.
Flow becomes more meridional in nature with better lake to lake
Superior connection. Stronger low level cold advection Sunday night
into early Monday should sharpen lake aggregate troughing with at
least a potential of a more dominant band setting up this period.
HREF probs suggest a better potential (albeit low potential) of
snowfall rates greater than 1" per hour Sunday night. With an
initial phase of light snow late tonight into Sunday, followed by
potentially more impactful period Sunday night/early Monday, opted
to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight through Monday
early afternoon with emphasis on 2nd half of this event for
greater impact potential.

Low level ridge axis quickly tracks across the area Monday night
setting up a stronger southerly return flow situation for Tuesday,
and a return of windy conditions. A rather interesting synoptic
setup looks to be in store for the Wednesday-Thursday period. A cut-
off negative upper height anomaly off Pacific northwest coast, looks
to eject in a couple of different pieces into primary
westerlies. The first of these waves looks to eject north of the
area likely driving a frontal boundary southward across the
southern Great Lakes. The 2nd of these potential disturbances
will be one to watch for late Wednesday into Thursday.
Predictability in this type of synoptic pattern regarding exact
track/depth is on the low side, but there should be a pre-
existing strong frontal boundary in place from previous 2 day
synoptic evolution. Blended PoPs have nudged upward this cycle
late Wednesday into Thursday which appears reasonable.

Looking ahead to late week and next weekend, some moderation in
temps is likely but local area could be prone to additional shots of
cold air toward end of this period given low level baroclinic zone
will not be located too far north of the local area via
maintenance of longwave eastern Pacific ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites, with winds
lingering out of the WNW through the period. Ceilings should
generally remain between 1500-2500ft, but there is potential
(particularly at KFWA) for a quick drop to around 700 ft over
the next few hours. Confidence wasn't high enough to include at
this point, but will amend if the conditions materialize.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday for
     INZ103-104-203-204.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MIZ078-177-
     277.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...MCD

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

INZ103-104-203-204-MIZ078-177-277-222030-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Cass MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
327 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 /227 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST  /MIDNIGHT CST/
SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST  /NOON CST/ MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Lake effect snow showers are expected Sunday into Monday morning. The
heaviest snowfall rates are expected Sunday night into early Monday.
Slick and hazardous road conditions are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216-MIZ079>081-
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-222030-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern Kosciusko-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
327 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 /227 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Light snow is expected tonight into Sunday morning, but snow
accumulations will be generally under in inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Most of the additional snow accumulation Sunday PM into early Monday
will be in association with lake effect snow showers across southwest
Lower Michigan and portions of northern Indiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.