A highly anticipated, highly impactful Nor'easter struck eastern New York on the evening of Sunday, February 22 through the afternoon of Monday, February 23, 2026. Tracking along the East Coast and rapidly intensifying as it approached the 40 latitude/70 longitude benchmark, this system quickly gained national attention not only for its projected widespread blizzard conditions across many high…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
A highly anticipated, highly impactful Nor'easter struck eastern New York on the evening of Sunday, February 22 through the afternoon of Monday, February 23, 2026. Tracking along the East Coast and rapidly intensifying as it approached the 40 latitude/70 longitude benchmark, this system quickly gained national attention not only for its projected widespread blizzard conditions across many high profile, highly populated areas, but for the complexity of its forecast.
Confidence increased sufficiently for forecasters at National Weather Service Albany to upgrade prior issued Winter Storm Warnings to a Blizzard Warnings in Dutchess and Ulster Counties mere hours prior to snowfall onset. Once snow began, it didn't take long for rates to become moderate to heavy, particularly across Dutchess and eastern Ulster Counties, rapidly dropping visibility late in the evening of Sunday, February 22nd. As the core of the still strengthening storm drew closer, winds became gusty and reduced visibility further. The combination of heavy snowfall rates and frequent wind gusts between 25 to 40 mph made for on and off blizzard conditions, with visibilities falling below one quarter of a mile, from around 3 AM through nearly 2 PM Monday, February 23, 2026 across Dutchess and eastern Ulster Counties. Snow finally began to gradually slow after 2 PM Monday, February 23, 2026 and eventually tapered off after 4 PM. The resulting snowfall totals across Dutchess and eastern Ulster Counties ranged from 7 to 18 inches.
As previously mentioned, this was a very complicated forecast. Model guidance in the days leading up to the event was highly variable in their depictions of the track and strength of the system. Ultimately, the track of the storm remained farther south and east than what was anticipated, leading to a fairly steep southeast to northwest gradient in snowfall totals. This also led to much lower snowfall totals than expected in many areas, including the immediate Capital Region, Taconic and Helderberg Mountains, Mohawk Valley, and Lake George-Saratoga Region. Outside of eastern Greene County, which ultimately received 7 to 17.5 inches of snow due to a combination of orographic enhancement and wrap around snow bands, snowfall totals within the Mid-Hudson Valley, Capital Region, Taconics, Helderbergs, Mohawk Valley, and Lake George-Saratoga Regions only amounted to about 0.3 to 6 inches.
Ahead of the event, the Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, declared a State of Emergency for Albany, Columbia, Greene, Dutchess, Schenectady, Schoharie, and Ulster Counties in an attempt to keep residents off the roads. Consequently, many schools; local businesses; and roadways were closed, and there was a travel ban instated for all nonessential travel beginning at 9 PM on Sunday, February 22nd for Ulster and Dutchess Counties.
Key Impacts: state of emergency, travel ban, road closures, traffic accidents, school closures, power outages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 6:43 PM EST, 5 hours 47 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
643 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Strong Nor'Easter still expected to impact the Northeast coast
Sunday into Monday with our area on the northern fringe of this
system. Winter Storm Warnings issued for southern areas (eastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Berkshires and
NW CT). Have also issued Winter Weather Advisory for Capital
Region due to expected moderate snowfall. Snowfall totals are
borderline between advisory and warning levels in southern VT,
northern Taconics, Helderbergs and Schoharie County, so have
gone with a Watch there for now and will make headline decision
as confidence increases closer to the event. For areas where the
warning is in effect, heavy snowfall, combined with gusty winds,
will make very difficult travel with very low visibility. Some
downed trees and power lines are possible for far southern areas
due to heavy wet snowfall and gusty winds.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A high impact Nor'Easter will bring heavy accumulating
snowfall and gusty winds for southern parts of the area for
Sunday afternoon into Monday, which will result in difficult to
impossible travel conditions, very low visibility, and possible
downed trees and power lines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A stalled frontal boundary is currently located over the Deep
South. As a wave of low pressure develops along this front, it
will lift northeast towards the Southeast coast for tonight.
Meanwhile, a shortwave over the Great Lakes will be diving
southeast for tonight and closing off at 500 hpa. As this upper
level energy interacts with the southern stream system, it will
cause the surface low to rapidly develop and deepen for Sunday
into Sunday night. As the low gets captured, it will slowly
track northeast off the coast of the mid Atlantic on Sunday
night and will be pass southeast of southern New England for
Monday.
Models have come into better agreement on the past few days that
this system will be bombing out and drop to around a 970 hpa low
by Monday afternoon. While there still remains some uncertainty
on the exact track, there has been enough confidence to suggest
a track close enough to the coast to allow for heavy snowfall to
reach inland. At this point, precip looks to spread into the
area from south to north on Sunday. Some spotty light snow may
break out across the high terrain as early as Sunday morning,
but the steadiest snowfall looks to begin on Sunday afternoon
and really pick up from south to north on Sunday night. Some
banding may occur on the northwest side of the strong storm
system with a classic setup for a pivoting band on Sunday night.
Most areas will continue to see steady snowfall Monday morning,
before it starts to wind down from west to east on Monday
afternoon into Monday evening. The heaviest rates are likely on
Sunday night into Monday morning, especially for southern areas,
where rates within the snowband will likely exceed 1" per hour.
With surface temps near freezing and expected strong winds, snow
to liquid ratios may be close to climo (around 12:1), although
brief higher ratios are certainly possible, especially on
Monday.
While a few days ago, most models and ensembles suggested
little probability of heavy snowfall in our area, there has been
a drastic shift and now most guidance suggest heavy snowfall
reaching into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley,
Taconics, Berkshires and NW CT. NBM probability for 8" of snow
is 60-90% for those areas and even the 12" probability is
40%-80%. There is even decent support for greater than 18"
across the Catskills and NW CT, with probabilities around 40%
for those areas. All in all, the guidance that shows impacts are
generally showing a big impact.
The main uncertainty will on the northern fringe and just how
far snowfall (and heavy snowfall) will get. As is typical with
coastal Nor'Easters, there is usually a sharp gradient between
excessively high totals and little to no snowfall. The January
2016 Blizzard is a similar and classic example, where
Poughkeepsie (which was forecasted to receive over a foot of
snowfall) saw little snowfall, while Newburgh saw around a foot
and NYC was close to two feet. Model guidance (especially
blended guidance) usually does a poor job at resolving this and
as a result, there will likely be a sharper gradient than what
we are currently forecasting at this time. For now, we have
forecasted around 4-6" in the Capital Region, with 9+" in the
mid Hudson Valley. This may be sharper, although it's still
uncertain where that gradient will set up and it's possible that
snowfall totals in the Albany area could be higher (or lower).
Have gone with an advisory for now in the Capital Region, as
model guidance does want to keep the heavier totals further
south. However, there is enough support in the guidance for a
Watch for the northern Taconics, Helderbergs, Schoharie County
and southern VT, as the high terrain and upslope flow could
allow for slightly higher totals in the these areas on the
northern fringe, allowing for low-end warning level totals, if
the northern edge sets up close enough. There is still time to
evaluate later guidance and make decisions on these northern
areas. WPC WSO suggest a 30-50% chance for warning-level snow
across the Capital Region and southern Vermont, although the
50-80% confidence zone is also very close.
The other impact with this storm system will be the gusty
winds. With such a strong coastal storm, north to northeast
winds will be rather strong for late Sunday night into Monday.
Some gusts could reach 30-45 mph, especially over the high peaks
of the Catskills, southern Greens, Berkshires and in NW CT. In
addition to very low visibility within falling snow, some
blowing snow may be possible, although the wet nature of the
snowfall could reduce this somewhat. Still, these gusts may be
high enough to down some tree limbs, resulting in some possible
power outages as well, mainly for far southern areas.
The main difference between this event and the snowstorm in late
January will be that temperatures won't be brutally cold like in
that event. Temps will generally be in the upper 20s to lower
30s during this storm. Still, the gusty winds will make it feel
even colder and the near whiteout conditions will be it
extremely dangerous for anyone outdoors during an extended
period of time during this event. Temps will drop for Monday
night in the wake of the storm, with lows down into the single
digits and teens by late Monday night. With wind still fairly
breezy at that time, wind chill values could approach zero for
many areas (especially the high terrain).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...Mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR flying conditions as
of 6:35 PM EST. While forecast tonight is tricky, expecting trends
down to mainly MVFR cigs, with some pockets of IFR cigs possible as
well. Best chance for IFR is after 06z at PSF/POU. Mainly VFR to
MVFR vsbys with patchy mist developing overnight as well. There
could also be some very light snow showers around, but not expecting
much in the way of operational impact from any snow showers.
Tomorrow morning, gradual improvement is expected to MVFR cigs/VFR
vsbys and eventually VFR cigs as well by late morning or early
afternoon, although there could be another round of light snow
showers around tomorrow morning at ALB/GFL/POU with some MVFR vsbys
reductions. Have included prob30 groups for this. VFR conditions
continue at ALB/GFL and most likely PSF through the end of the TAF
period, but at POU snow with the major nor'easter will begin by late
tomorrow afternoon or early evening. Snow could get to PSF by the
last hour or two of the TAF period. Winds will generally be light
and variable through much of tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt from the
E/NE first at POU/PSF tomorrow morning, then at ALB/GFL later in the
afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Likely SN...BS.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Likely SN...BS.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
NYZ058>061-063>066.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for NYZ047-048-051-054.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday
for NYZ049-050-052-053.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for VTZ013>015.
&&
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 winter weather, 3 blizzard, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Zone average snowfall of 0.4 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 11.4 inches and 3 to 5 hours worth of frequent wind gusts between 35 to 40 mph.
Zone average snowfall of 9.4 inches and 3 to 5 hours worth of frequent wind gusts between 35 to 40 mph.
Zone average snowfall of 6.7 inches and 3 to 5 hours worth of frequent wind gusts between 35 to 40 mph.
Zone average snowfall of 5.6 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 8.3 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 4.6 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 5.7 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 2.9 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 4.3 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 3.5 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 2.8 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 4.2 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 4.4 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 0.7 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 1.2 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 0.9 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 1 inch.
Zone average snowfall of 1 inch.
Zone average snowfall of 0.5 inches.
Zone average snowfall of 0.3 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1320430, 1320387, 1320389, 1320390, 1320391, 1320414, 1320408, 1320403, 1320416, 1320404, 1320418, 1320419, 1320420, 1320423, 1320421, 1320422, 1320424, 1320425, 1320427, 1320428, 1320429.