NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 6:09 PM EST, 5 hours 51 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 6:09 PM EST, 5 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
609 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Given increased confidence in a high-impact winter storm, a Blizzard
Warning has been issued for all of RI and eastern MA, including
Boston and Providence. All other Winter Storm Watches have been
converted to Winter Storm Warnings, except at Nantucket, where a
Winter Storm Watch continues, given the uncertainty of rain mixing
with the snow at times. Greatest impacts are expected in RI and
eastern MA, with highest snow totals and strongest winds.
A High Wind Warning has been posted for Nantucket Sunday night into
Monday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A powerful winter storm brings significant impacts to much of
the region Sunday night into Monday, with heavy snowfall,
strong winds and blizzard conditions to RI and eastern MA.
- A powerful coastal storm will bring minor to moderate coastal
flooding during the late Sunday night/early Monday morning
high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will be from
Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A powerful winter storm will impact SNE with heavy
snow, strong winds, blizzard conditions and coastal flooding Sunday
night into Monday. Here are specific details -
Timing: light snow/flurries will develop Sunday afternoon across
CT/RI/MA, however the accumulating snow will begin late Sunday/Sun
evening. Then the heaviest snow will occur from late Sunday night
into Monday afternoon. Very strong forcing for ascent results in
bomogenesis, with multiple model guidance indicating the cyclone
will intensify to sub 970mb as it crosses near the 40N/70W benchmark
Monday! Model cross sections and soundings have very strong lift in
the DGZ along with steep lapse rates, yielding bands of very heavy
snow late Sunday night into Monday. The 12z HREF has mean hourly
snowfall rates of 3+ inches around 12z Monday over RI and southeast
MA! Given the magnitude of the lift and instability, low prob of
thundersnow. Intensity of the snow should slacken late in the day
Monday and especially Monday evening.
Snow amounts: all model guidance has at least an inch of qpf across
RI and southeast MA, with some of the guidance over 2 inches in this
region. Thus, very high confidence in at least a foot of snow across
RI and southeast MA, with potentially up to 2 feet if these higher
scenarios verify. Farther west into CT and western-central MA, some
uncertainty how far northwest this heavy qpf rotates. Nonetheless,
high confidence for 8-15 inches for CT and western-central MA,
therefore Winter Storm Watches have been converted to warnings.
Depending on the exact track of the low, rain may mix in a times
across Nantucket. Therefore, some uncertainty on 6+ inches
here. Hence, we held with the Winter Storm Watch. This will be a
heavy/wet snow especially across RI and southeast MA.
Strong to Damaging Winds: a very strong low level NE jet up to 80 kt
will traverse RI and eastern MA. Model soundings from both the NAM
and GFS support gusts up to 45-55 mph, but as high as 70 mph
possible across Cape Cod and the Islands! These wind speeds combined
with the heavy snowfall rates will create white out conditions at
times, hence a blizzard warning has been issued for RI and eastern
MA. If the low trends farther west, blizzard warnings may need to be
expanded into the Worcester Hills. Also, the combination of strong
winds and heavy wet snow will yield the possibility of power outages
across RI and eastern MA. For Nantucket, issued a high wind warning,
as model soundings and cross sections have 70 kt of wind
aloft extending downward to 500 ft!
Impacts: Heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected from roughly
late Sunday night/early Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Travel
will be nearly impossible, with snowfall rates 2-4" per hour at
times during this period. Also, heavy wet snow will combine with
strong winds, yielding the potential for power outages across RI and
eastern MA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Coastal Flooding
A storm surge of 2-3' at the time of high tide early Monday morning
(2AM-5AM) will likely yield moderate coastal flooding from Plymouth
county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. Therefore a coastal
flood warning has been issued for this portion of the coastline.
Farther northward from Boston to the NH border, there is more
uncertainty, with a higher probability of minor flooding likely.
Therefore, we held with a coastal flood watch there. The greatest
storm surge (up to 4 ft) appears to occur during low tide Monday (9-
10AM). However, there could be enough storm surge for minor coastal
flooding during the late day high tide (3-6pm). Although, given the
astro tide is lower and winds will be more northerly, only expecting
minor flooding. Nonetheless, a coastal flood watch remains in effect
for this second tide Monday to account for any storm track changes,
including timing.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight and Sunday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR with IFR for ORH and pockets of VFR in NE MA. Light snow
showers possible tonight mainly across western MA and CT. MVFR
CIGS remain Sunday with light ENE winds.
Sunday Night: High Confidence
MVFR turning IFR as light snow overspreads the region between
22-04z. Winds become gusty out of the NE at 15-20 knots. Snow
rates pick up overnight sunday becoming very heavy at times.
Winds increase overnight with gusts of 50-70 knots possible in
eastern MA/RI esspically for the Cape and Islands. Significant
LLWS with 70 knots of wind down to 500 feet.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Mainly MVFR tonight, however periods of VFR possible. MVFR moves
back in for Sunday with increase SE winds. Snow should hold off
until after 04z Monday.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
MVFR for the TAF period. Light snow reaches the terminal Sunday
around 00z.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 55 kt. SN, areas FG.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN,
chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
RA, chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tranquil weather tonight, with a ridge of high pressure over the
waters. Then a very powerful storm develops off the Mid Atlc coast
Sunday, rapidly intensifying Sunday night and Monday into a
dangerous storm, as it moves near the 40N/70W benchmark. This storm
will be accompanied by very strong winds up to 60 kt and seas 15-25
ft across the RI and MA waters. Heavy snow will reduce vsby to near
zero at times Sunday night and Monday. The storm exits into the
maritimes Monday night, with improving weather conditions Tuesday
and beyond.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 28 ft. Chance of snow. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of freezing spray.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
MAZ007-013>023.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
morning for MAZ007-015-016.
Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ019-
022>024.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for MAZ024.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
MAZ024.
RI...Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
&&
DISCUSSION...Nocera
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...NoceraSpecial weather statement, Feb 21, 9:38 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
938 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
RIZ008-220515-
Block Island RI-
Including the city of New Shoreham
938 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
Areas of light snow and snow showers have developed and are
contributing to locally slick road conditions. Please allow extra
travel time this evening as snow showers continue. Conditions are
expected to improve as snow activity wanes after midnight.
CTZ004-MAZ004-005-012-013-017-020-026-RIZ001-002-007-220515-
Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Newport RI-
Including the cities of Putnam, Willimantic, Barre, Fitchburg,
Framingham, Lowell, Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood,
Taunton, Fall River, New Bedford, Ayer, Foster, Smithfield,
Providence, and Newport
938 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
Areas of light snow and snow showers have developed and are
contributing to locally slick road conditions. Please allow extra
travel time this evening as snow showers continue. Conditions are
expected to improve as snow activity wanes after midnight.