What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 24, 3:03 PM EST, 27 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- A band of thunderstorms with broken coverage moves west to east across the remainder of SE Mi late this afternoon. The strongest storms are capable of isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph and localized heavy downpours.
- Dry weather and cooler but seasonable temperatures move in for the weekend.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Monday night into Tuesday.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 24, 3:03 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
403 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A band of thunderstorms with broken coverage moves west to east
across the remainder of SE Mi late this afternoon. The strongest
storms are capable of isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph and
localized heavy downpours.
- Dry weather and cooler but seasonable temperatures move in for the
weekend.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The ongoing band of thunderstorms crossing Lower Mi is the first
phase of convection on schedule to affect the area this afternoon
and this evening. It increased coverage and intensity on the leading
edge of inbound short wave height falls and within an uncapped
boundary layer with building instability. Mid afternoon hourly
mesoanalysis indicates SBCAPE running up near 2000 J/kg with entry
level bulk shear around 25 kts. Model soundings also continue to
indicate narrow CAPE density and high moisture content within an
HREF mean PW axis reaching up to around 1.5 inches. The CAPE/shear
combination is proving capable of supporting some linear
organization within multicell clusters that present a precip loaded
downburst damaging wind threat through late afternoon. Some
weakening is likely as activity reaches the mid Thumb region to Lake
Huron on the leading edge of the instability axis.
The second phase of convection comes in with lower intensity in
reduced instability between the leading line and cold front.
Coverage is boosted by the cold front and smaller scale mid level
wave hinted at in satellite imagery. This activity ends up sub
severe while adding rainfall to event totals until the front sweeps
activity eastward around midnight.
The weekend starts out dry but cloudy as the surface low center
reaches the east end of Lake Erie by morning and has a trough
extending back west into Lower Mi. This keeps the central Great
Lakes mired in low clouds augmented by the Great Lakes that are
trapped in and near the trough and under a strengthening mid level
ridge. The associated subsidence inversion is maintained Saturday
night while the low level wind becomes more neutral and less
supportive of cloud maintenance, however direction veering easterly
keeps SE Mi on the cloud edge to the south with lower predictability
into Sunday. Confidence in dry weather through the weekend is much
higher as model agreement is solid on maintenance of the 500 mb
ridge over the central Great Lakes. The larger scale surfaced high
pressure is also shown with good model agreement centered on
northern Ontario and Quebec. The NE to E wind trajectory favors
temperatures around late April normals in the mid 50s to mid 60s
with onshore wind direction bringing the usual much cooler
conditions near Lake Huron.
Dry weather holds to start the week on Monday while the next low
pressure system organizes across the Plains states. It sends a band
of showers and thunderstorms into Lower Mi Monday night as
considerable system deepening occurs in the lee of the Rockies. Low
level jet driven moisture transport consists of a Gulf modified
continental air mass, but the size and strength of the low pressure
system makes efficient use of the moisture/instability. The trailing
cold front then sweeps showers eastward by Tuesday morning and
leaves dry weather and near normal temperatures for mid week.
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front crosses the central Great Lakes this evening generating a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms. An isolated storm could be
strong to severe with wind gusts over 34kts being the main hazard.
Secondary low center on the southern portion of the front crosses
the southern lower MI tonight setting up modest northeasterly flow
in its wake (peak winds up near 20kts). High pressure then expands
over the Great Lakes over the course of Saturday before eventually
departing first part of the day Monday. Light winds gradually take
hold as this high becomes established as well as bringing drier
weather for the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A band of thunderstorms leads a cold front across SE Mi this
afternoon and evening. Two phases of activity combine for basin
average rainfall amounts in the range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches,
although localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible for any
areas that see repeated rounds of storms. Ponding of water on
roadways and minor rises on streams and rivers will be the main
impacts followed by localized minor flooding in urban and low lying
areas.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
AVIATION...
Mid-afternoon conditions have returned to a VFR state, but this will
be short-lived. Convection is moving in from the west, well ahead of
a cold front that is currently draped across western Lower Michigan.
Lower clouds fill in through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening, and eventually lower to MVFR with the arrival of drenching
rainfall. Pushed back the timing of thunder in the TAFs to account
for latest radar trends and storm speeds. Storm mode will
predominantly be multicell clusters with some line segments. Most of
the stronger storms should clear the terminals before 01Z, but
models indicate potential for elevated instability to perpetuate
into the overnight hours, keeping low-end thunder potential in-
place. As of now, confidence is too low to extend TS beyond 01Z,
thus favoring a decreasing trend in showers. Additionally, once
rainfall comes to an end, fog should develop/replace the exiting
precipitation as a reduction to visibility. Given residual moisture
within the cooler airmass, a low stratus signal is also present into
Saturday morning. For the TAF period, winds will be breezy at times
this afternoon and variable with southerly composition, then veering
NNE overnight with decreasing speeds.
For DTW...Greatest thunderstorm potential across DTW is currently
between 21Z and 23Z as the broken line of strong thunderstorms move
through. Wind gusts of 50 mph possible with locally heavy downpours.
IFR conditions develop overnight.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for thunderstorms this evening.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....BT
AVIATION.....KGK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 24, 3:15 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
415 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-250800-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
415 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
A band of thunderstorms with broken coverage moves the rest of the
way across SE Mi late this afternoon and this evening on west to
east motion around 25 mph. Isolated storms are capable of wind gusts
of 40 to 60 mph. Minor flooding of low-lying/urban areas and ponding
on area roadways is also possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.
LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-250800-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
415 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
A band of thunderstorms with broken coverage crosses over marine
areas late this afternoon and this evening on west to east motion
around 20 knots. Isolated storms are capable of wind gusts greater
than 34 knots until exiting into Ontario after midnight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
BT
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 24, 2:23 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
323 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
MIZ068-075-242100-
Livingston MI-Washtenaw MI-
323 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LIVINGSTON AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 323 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Williamston to 7 miles northwest of Grass
Lake to near Cement City. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, Hartland, Howell, Saline, Brighton, Milan,
Chelsea, Dexter, Fowlerville, Pinckney, Manchester, Hamburg, South
Lyon, Salem, Cohoctah, Gregory, Dixboro, Oak Grove, and Whitmore
Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4278 8369 4243 8366 4243 8355 4209 8354
4208 8413 4278 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 232DEG 25KT 4270 8419 4234 8429 4212 8434
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AMSpecial weather statement, Apr 24, 2:29 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
329 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
MIZ048-242030-
Bay MI-
329 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BAY COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wooden Shoe Village to Rhodes to near
Edenville. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Midland, Bay City, Auburn, Pinconning, Kawkawlin, Essexville,
Bentley, Munger, Linwood, Mount Forest, Crump, Willard, and Bay City
State Recreation Area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4391 8404 4391 8391 4376 8395 4367 8391
4360 8370 4348 8370 4348 8382 4352 8382
4352 8405 4357 8405 4357 8417 4400 8416
4400 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 229DEG 23KT 4401 8428 4388 8421 4374 8431
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KGKSpecial weather statement, Apr 24, 2:43 PM EST, 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
343 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
MIZ061-242100-
Genesee MI-
343 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GENESEE COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM
EDT...
At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Corunna to Durand to near Byron. Movement
was northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Flint, Fenton, Flushing, Grand Blanc, Davison, Clio, Burton, Swartz
Creek, Linden, Mount Morris, Goodrich, Montrose, Otisville, Lennon,
Otter Lake, Gaines, Beecher, Lake Fenton, Crossroads Village, and
Genesee.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4322 8393 4322 8346 4288 8345 4287 8369
4278 8369 4278 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 225DEG 24KT 4303 8405 4294 8400 4280 8403
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KGKSpecial weather statement, Apr 24, 2:56 PM EST, 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
356 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
MIZ082-083-242100-
Lenawee MI-Monroe MI-
356 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND
NORTHEASTERN LENAWEE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Milan, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Milan, Dundee, Deerfield, Britton, Macon, Azalia, Cone, and Oakville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8388 4209 8346 4209 8339 4189 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 240DEG 34KT 4205 8374
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
AMSpecial weather statement, Apr 24, 3:21 PM EST, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
421 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
MIZ069-242115-
Oakland MI-
421 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OAKLAND COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...
At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fenton to Hartland to Hamburg. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Pontiac, Novi, Milford, Holly, Oxford, South Lyon, Ortonville,
Clarkston, Auburn Hills, Wixom, Walled Lake, Wolverine Lake, Lake
Orion, Leonard, Lake Angelus, Waterford, Davisburg, Holly State
Recreation Area, Commerce, and Rose Center.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4243 8358 4243 8366 4287 8369 4289 8310
4287 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 224DEG 31KT 4274 8375 4264 8374 4243 8379
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AMSpecial weather statement, Apr 24, 3:23 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
423 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
MIZ054-242145-
Tuscola MI-
423 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TUSCOLA COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...
At 423 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Quanicassee to Reese to near Frankenmuth.
Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Caro, Vassar, Cass City, Reese, Millington, Mayville, Akron,
Fairgrove, Unionville, Kingston, Gagetown, Quanicassee, Tuscola,
Ellington, Wilmot, Gilford, Wisner, Colling, Deford, and Colwood.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4373 8347 4367 8346 4367 8312 4333 8311
4332 8335 4324 8335 4323 8346 4322 8346
4322 8369 4360 8370 4360 8368 4362 8364
4371 8355 4372 8352 4370 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 251DEG 23KT 4360 8368 4343 8371 4327 8369
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KGK