What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 23, 10:11 PM CST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Periods of showers and storms (60-90 percent chance) expected through tonight. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms mainly for damaging winds. Can't rule out isolated large hail or a brief tornado across southwestern Wisconsin.
- Showers are expected to redevelop on Friday especially over the ern half of WI. Isolated storms still possible.
- Dry weather with highs in the 60s this weekend; cooler by Lake Michigan due to light easterly winds.
- Widespread showers (80-90 percent chance) and isolated thunderstorms return late Sunday night through Monday night. Chances are fairly high for an inch of rainfall.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 23, 10:11 PM CST, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of showers and storms (60-90 percent chance) expected
through tonight. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms
mainly for damaging winds. Can't rule out isolated large hail
or a brief tornado across southwestern Wisconsin.
- Showers are expected to redevelop on Friday especially over
the ern half of WI. Isolated storms still possible.
- Dry weather with highs in the 60s this weekend; cooler by Lake
Michigan due to light easterly winds.
- Widespread showers (80-90 percent chance) and isolated
thunderstorms return late Sunday night through Monday night.
Chances are fairly high for an inch of rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Tonight through Friday night:
The line of storms is has just moved into southern Wisconsin
here this evening. Storms continue to move north northeast along
a line stretch from roughly the UP of MI through La Crosse into
eastern IA and back down to MO. MUCAPE, SBCAPE and the effective
shear are all on a downward trend here this evening as this line
of storms moves into a much weaker environmental set up. MUCAPE
is hovering around 500 J/kg with SBCAPE around 100 J/kg. Shear
is not much better around 20-30 kts at best. The scattered
storms that developed ahead of the line earlier in the night
have since merged with the line which did add in some higher
reflectivities for a bit, but this has since subsided.
Can't rule out a few stronger storms yet this evening. Until we
lose out SBCAPE the potential for a brief spin up still exists
but this chance is incredible small. Its more likely that
strong winds and heavy rain are the primary threat at this
point. This is especially true as the line of storms become
more outflow dominant over time. The window for any brief spins
ups will be over the next hour or so. The mid level lapse rates
are slowly coming down which will favor heavy rain as the night
drags on. Give the slow storm motion and current training given
the storm motion (near perpendicular to the line at this
point), urban and small stream impacts are growing. This line of
rain and storms is still expected to weak becoming more broken
with scattered to isolated storms expected. Once this happens
the flooding threat will diminish.
The cold front will slowly move down the state late tonight into
Friday morning bringing an end to any lingering showers through
the early morning hours. Severe weather is not anticipated
through Friday morning. A few rumbles of thunder will be the
primary concerns by this point. As winds turn to northwesterly
behind the front slightly cooler and drier conditions will move
into the state. Given the timing of the cold front, temperatures
may still make it into the 60s Friday. High pressure will then
slowly build into the region Friday night into Saturday.
Patterson
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Saturday through Thursday:
Looking dry and quiet pattern across southern WI through the weekend
as our neck of the woods sits in between low pressures in the
Canadian Plains and Central Plains while high pressure meanders to
the northeast east of the Great Lakes. This pattern will result in
more season temps, but easterly flow off of Lake Michigan will help
keep things cooler along the lakeshore.
A more active pattern is taking shape for the start of next week as
an upper-level ridge axis pushes across the region bringing in
increasing low-level WAA later Sunday into Monday while an upper-
level trough digs across the Rockies and across the Plains. While
there is agreement on this upper-level trough lifting across the
Midwest for the start of next week, there continues to be variations
of solutions in the ensembles when it comes to timing and track
of the surface low associated with the upper-level wave. EPS is
favoring a more northward track while GEFS is a bit more south.
Depending of where this low tracks along with where the warm front
lifts/sets up will play a role in any stronger storm potential.
Otherwise, at this time expect at least increased PoPs for the
start of next week.
Then looking at a cooler pattern with potentially below normal temps
toward the middle of next week as the upper-level trough meanders
over the Central CONUS with high pressure bringing in the cooler
Canadian airmass through the end of the week.
Wagner
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
VFR to IFR conditions are possible through the period. Upper
level clouds are slowly building in from the west this evening
as a cold front approaches from western IA and MN. As rain and
thunderstorms move in late this evening into tonight, ceilings
are expected to fall to around 1-3 kft. The lower ceilings are
expected to be with any of the rain that moves through. As the
rain becomes more scattered to isolated overnight, ceilings
could jump around a bit between IFR to MVFR until roughly 9Z.
Then MVFR cigs should spread across southern Wisconsin and
remain through the rest of the morning. Visibilities around 2-4
SM will also be possible through the overnight hours with any
storm/rain. Heavy rain will be possible which could drop
visibilites a bit lower at times (about 1 SM). Rain showers
will linger into Friday morning as the cold front exits to the
east. Ceilings will improve back to VFR from west to east
through he morning and afternoon hours.
Breezy south to southeast winds this evening will weaken
slightly tonight and loose their gusts. The cold front will pass
early Friday morning into early Friday afternoon turning winds
to the northwest. By Friday night, the winds will weak further
and become northerly winds will continue to slowly turn becoming
easterly by Saturday night.
Patterson
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Areas of fog are likely to continue over the lake into Friday
due to the mild, moist air flowing over the colder water of the
lake. This fog and mild air will be along modest south to
southeast winds. A warm front will stall across the far northern
edge of the lake failing to reach the UP of Michigan. This will
create a tighter pressure gradient just north of the front and
will result in winds approaching gales across the narrow area.
An occasional gale force gust will be possible until the low
pressure system around 29.2 inches and an associated cold front
pass the lake Friday afternoon/evening. A few thunderstorms will
be possible across the lake until the cold front clear to the
east. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Light north winds on Saturday will then become easterly Saturday
night and Sunday before increasing into Monday. 29.4 inch low
pressure is forecast to track northeastward from the central Great
Plains (Sunday night) near or over Lake Michigan (Monday night),
with gusty east to southeast winds ahead of its arrival and gusty
west winds behind it (into Tuesday). Not seeing widespread gale
potential with this system, though trends will be monitored.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Friday
afternoon north of Port Washington for building waves.
Patterson
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 1 PM Friday.
&&
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Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 23, 10:12 PM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1112 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250415-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1112 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening
into the overnight. Damaging winds is the predominant hazard.
Can't rule out a brief tornado or isolated large hail across
south central Wisconsin.
Localized heavy rain and urban and small stream flooding will be
possible late this evening into the overnight especially over
south central Wisconsin.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday morning.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed tonight.
LMZ643>646-250415-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1112 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect north of Port Washington due
to persistent southerly winds and building waves.
A chance for thunderstorms overnight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
The Small Craft Advisory continues through Friday morning due to
breezy south winds and building waves.
Gusty winds and high waves are looking likely Sunday night
through Tuesday.
LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-250415-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1112 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
Areas of fog, possibly dense tonight. There are chances for
thunderstorms late tonight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
Areas of fog will remain possible on Friday. Small chances for
thunderstorms are also forecast Friday.
www.weather.gov/mkx
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 23, 9:52 PM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1052 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
WIZ062-067-240415-
Lafayette WI-Iowa WI-
1052 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHERN IOWA COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...
At 1052 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Platteville to near Shullsburg. Movement
was northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Ridgeway, Linden, Waldwick, Cobb, Rewey,
Hollandale, Governor Dodge St Park, Edmund, Blackhawk Lake Rec Area,
London, and Jonesdale.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 18 between mile markers 49 and 54.
U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 33 and 47.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 9042 4312 9016 4292 8984 4291 8984
4271 9010 4282 9010 4281 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 226DEG 43KT 4279 9044 4265 9025
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KUROSKISpecial weather statement, Apr 23, 9:58 PM CST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1058 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
WIZ067-240415-
Lafayette WI-
1058 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY THROUGH
1115 PM CDT...
At 1058 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belmont, or 7 miles southwest of Mineral Point, moving northeast at
45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Darlington, Shullsburg, Belmont, Benton, New Diggings, Calamine, and
Lead Mine.
This includes U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 25 and 32.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4281 9034 4282 9020 4281 9010 4267 9010
4251 9022 4251 9043 4252 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 217DEG 38KT 4277 9025
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KUROSKISpecial weather statement, Apr 23, 10:08 PM CST, 2 hours 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1108 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
WIZ056-062-063-067-068-240500-
Green WI-Lafayette WI-Iowa WI-Sauk WI-Dane WI-
1108 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN LAFAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN
GREEN...IOWA...WESTERN DANE AND SOUTHERN SAUK COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CDT...
At 1108 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Muscoda to Dodgeville to 7
miles northwest of Argyle to near Darlington. Movement was northeast
at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Western Madison, Middleton, Verona, Mount Horeb, Dodgeville, Prairie
Du Sac, Sauk City, Cross Plains, Mazomanie, Spring Green, Black
Earth, Argyle, Blanchardville, Barneveld, Wiota, Blue Mounds,
Highland, Arena, Plain, and Ridgeway.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 18 between mile markers 49 and 78.
U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 42 and 47.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4320 9042 4321 9029 4317 9020 4330 9019
4329 8966 4301 8951 4265 8985 4252 9017
4272 9004 4295 9018 4299 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 231DEG 45KT 4305 9040 4298 9014 4275 9000 4261
9009
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KUROSKISpecial weather statement, Apr 23, 10:44 PM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
WIZ062-067-240530-
Lafayette WI-Iowa WI-
1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...
At 1143 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of Dickeyville to East Dubuque.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Mineral Point, Belmont, Benton, Highland, Centerville, Linden, New
Diggings, Elk Grove, Cobb, Rewey, Platte Mounds, Calamine, Lead Mine,
and London.
This includes U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 23 and 40.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4309 9043 4282 9007 4251 9033 4251 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 211DEG 39KT 4273 9064 4248 9062
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KUROSKI