Wildfire in New Mexico, April 24 to 25, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
518 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will produce a risk of rapid
  fire spread locally over northeast and east central areas today,
  then over more of eastern New Mexico Saturday through Tuesday.

- Strong southwest and west winds will produce difficult
  crosswinds for high profile vehicles, especially by Sunday where
  some wind gusts could be approaching 60 mph.

- Saturday night and Sunday, showers and thunderstorms from the
  northern mountains westward, and over west central areas, will
  be capable of producing erratic wind gusts with hazardous
  crosswinds and blowing dust, as well as cloud-to-ground
  lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Another great start to the day across northern and central New
Mexico. Winds are generally light, until you get west of the Rio
Grande Valley where some breezy SW winds reported along the I-40
corridor. Otherwise a nice day in store with temperatures this
afternoon to be near to slightly above average for late April.
Going into the first half of the weekend, main H500 longwave
pattern across the SW CONUS should enhance UL convergence across
the region. This will result in continued dry and breezy
conditions, especially for the eastern Plains where critical fire
weather conditions are expected Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
are expected to be near to above average topping out as high as
the low to the mid 80s for the valley and Plains locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Latest global model and numerical guidance showing a mid level
perturbation by Sunday wrapping around a main H500 low centered
within the Canadian Prairies. With rapid H500 height falls ahead
of the main perturbation approaching the Four Corners Region by
Sunday afternoon, some strong SW winds with gusts approaching 60
mph, especially for the eastern Plains and low RH values will
result in some critical fire weather conditions once again for
parts of the region. Lift along the northern portions of the
state and mountains ahead of the perturbation could result in some
light precipitation and/or virga. Will watch closely for some dry
storms with lightning that may also add to the fire danger on
Sunday. Dry conditions overall will return through mid week, where
fire weather conditions for some areas will continue through mid
week, before a second low pressure system off the coast of
southern California moves across the SW CONUS and could bring a
more widespread chance of rain by the end of the forecast period.
Tracking and exact details of moisture availability with this next
system will be available as we get closer over the next few days.
Temperatures overall remain above average as we close out the
month of April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Breezy conditions will prevail through sunset, and then wind
speeds will decrease for most locations. Breezes will resume late
Saturday morning into the afternoon when gusts of 20 to 25 kt will
become common again with a few isolated higher gusts to 30 kt. VFR
conditions will prevail with a few weak and paltry showers
developing in northwestern New Mexico Saturday evening with much
of the rainfall from these showers evaporating before it reaches
the ground. This evaporating rainfall (virga) will produce
localized and enhanced wind gusts to 40 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected throughout the
coming weekend and into early next week through Tuesday.
Persistent SW winds, peaking Sunday where gusts could approach 60
mph, along with low RH values will result in critical fire weather
conditions. Max RFTI values of 4 to 6 Saturday and 5 to 7 Sunday
through Tuesday are expected. On Sunday, we are also watching for
dry thunderstorm potential where lightning strikes could also
start fires.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  72  46  64 /   0   5  50  80
Dulce...........................  31  67  33  59 /  10   5  60  90
Cuba............................  36  67  38  64 /   0   5  30  70
Gallup..........................  32  66  36  62 /   0  10  20  40
El Morro........................  36  64  37  61 /   0  10  10  30
Grants..........................  34  69  35  67 /   0   5  10  30
Quemado.........................  37  67  39  65 /   0   5   5  10
Magdalena.......................  43  71  44  70 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  38  66  40  63 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  35  73  37  69 /   0   5   0   5
Glenwood........................  38  77  40  74 /   0   5   5   5
Chama...........................  30  61  32  52 /  10   5  50  90
Los Alamos......................  43  67  43  64 /   0   5  20  50
Pecos...........................  38  68  40  66 /   5   0  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  36  64  38  59 /  10   0  30  70
Red River.......................  32  55  32  49 /  10   0  30  70
Angel Fire......................  26  61  27  57 /   5   0  20  50
Taos............................  31  69  34  64 /  10   0  30  70
Mora............................  37  68  37  65 /   5   0  20  40
Espanola........................  40  74  41  71 /   5   0  20  50
Santa Fe........................  42  68  42  67 /   5   0  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  40  72  41  70 /   0   0  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  75  50  74 /   0   0  10  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  77  47  76 /   0   5   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  79  45  79 /   0   5   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  77  48  76 /   0   5  10  30
Belen...........................  41  79  42  79 /   0   5   5  20
Bernalillo......................  47  78  48  77 /   0   5  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  42  79  42  79 /   0   5   5  20
Corrales........................  47  79  48  78 /   0   5  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  43  79  43  78 /   0   5   5  20
Placitas........................  49  73  48  72 /   0   0  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  48  77  48  76 /   0   5  10  30
Socorro.........................  46  82  48  82 /   0   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  70  45  69 /   0   5  20  30
Tijeras.........................  44  71  45  70 /   0   0  10  20
Edgewood........................  40  72  40  72 /   0   0  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37  74  36  74 /   0   0  10  20
Clines Corners..................  41  69  41  70 /   0   0   5  20
Mountainair.....................  41  73  42  73 /   0   0   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  43  72  43  72 /   0   0   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  49  75  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  69  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  35  69  37  68 /   0   0  20  20
Raton...........................  33  72  36  71 /   0   0  10  30
Springer........................  36  74  38  73 /   0   0  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  40  71  40  69 /   0   0  10  20
Clayton.........................  45  77  46  78 /   0   0  20  10
Roy.............................  41  75  42  74 /   0   0   5  20
Conchas.........................  44  82  48  83 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  44  78  45  78 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  48  85  49  85 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  50  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  49  86  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  47  84  46  85 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  51  89  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  49  82  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  48  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ104-123-
125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ104-106-123>126.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
NMZ215-221>224-226>229-233-239-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...52